Market Brief

The South was the only region where builder confidence fell this month, and Florida sits in it

National builder confidence ticked up a point to 35 in August. The South regional reading, which covers Florida, went the other way, down two points to 31 and the weakest of the four regions.

The daily read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs: builder behavior, construction, mortgage rates, and what all three mean for a buyer or seller in Northeast Florida this week.

The national number went up and the Florida number went down

The NAHB and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August, released August 17, came in at 35, up one point from July. Read only that headline and the month looks marginally better.

The regional three month moving averages say something else:

• Northeast 44, down one point
• Midwest 45, unchanged
• West 27, unchanged
• South 31, down two points

Florida sits inside that South reading, and the South is the only one of the four regions that moved down this month. It is also the largest single-family building region in the country, which is why a two point decline there can coexist with a one point rise in the national index.

The price cutting did not stop

August was the 16th consecutive month with the index below 40, and the 16th consecutive month in which at least 30% of builders reported cutting prices.

• 35% of builders cut prices in August, down from 37% in July and level with June's 35%
• The average reduction held at 6%
• 63% used sales incentives, unchanged from July

The share cutting dipped slightly. The depth of the cut did not, and neither did the incentive use. A builder that has moved from cutting price to buying the rate down has not stopped discounting; it has changed which line the discount shows up on.

Construction backed off, but the entitlements kept coming

The Census Bureau and HUD released July new residential construction on August 18. Single-family starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 808,000, down 9.9% from a revised 897,000 in June and down 15.7% from July 2025, the slowest single-family pace since 2022. Total starts were 1,239,000, down 12.4% on the month.

Permits moved the opposite way: total permits 1,443,000, up 5.0% on the month and 3.1% on the year, with single-family permits at 894,000, up 2.5%. We covered that divergence in full in Builders stopped breaking ground in July. They kept filing permits.

The short version, and the reason it belongs next to the builder confidence reading: a permit is an option and a start is a commitment. Builders keeping the option while declining the commitment is consistent with a sector managing unsold standing inventory rather than one leaving the market.

Mortgage rates are drifting, not breaking

The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.67% for the week ended August 13, down from 6.69% the week before and a second consecutive weekly decline. A year ago the same survey read 6.58%, so the current rate is still about nine basis points higher than it was last August. The next print lands Thursday, August 20.

Two down weeks off an eleven month high is a fade, not a turn. It becomes a turn at three or four.

What this means in Northeast Florida

A soft South regional confidence reading, a 16th month of price cuts, and a builder holding finished inventory into a slower construction quarter all point the same direction locally.

That behavior is already visible in what builders pay at the closing table here. Per Momentum Research analysis of realMLS closed residential sales, concessions appeared in about 49% of new construction closings in 2026 at a median of $14,456, against roughly 42% and $7,600 on resale. New construction is the more discounted side of this market and has been all year.

For a buyer, that is the negotiating lane: a builder carrying spec inventory has more room on price, rate buydown or closing costs than a homeowner does.

For a seller of an existing home, the read is the mirror image. The competition is a discounted new home, not another resale, and a comp set built only from resale closings will read several points rich.

People also ask

Is builder confidence falling in Florida?

The NAHB and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index does not publish a Florida figure, but Florida sits in the South region, and the South three month moving average fell two points to 31 in August 2026. It was the only one of the four regions to decline that month, against 44 in the Northeast, 45 in the Midwest and 27 in the West. The national index rose one point to 35 over the same period, so the national and the Southern readings moved in opposite directions.

Are homebuilders still cutting prices in 2026?

Yes. In August 2026, 35% of builders reported cutting prices, down from 37% in July and level with June, with an average reduction of 6%. Sales incentives were used by 63% of builders, unchanged from July. August marked the 16th consecutive month in which at least 30% of builders reported cutting prices and the 16th consecutive month with the index below 40.

What is the current 30-year mortgage rate?

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.67% for the week ended August 13, 2026, down from 6.69% the prior week and the second consecutive weekly decline. The same survey read 6.58% a year earlier, so the rate is roughly nine basis points higher than it was in August 2025. Freddie Mac surveys lenders Monday through Wednesday and publishes each Thursday.

Sources and links

• National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, August 2026, released August 17, 2026: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/08/affordability-pressures-keep-builder-confidence-low
• U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Monthly New Residential Construction, July 2026, released August 18, 2026: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ended August 13, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
• Momentum Research analysis of realMLS closed residential sales, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Duval, Nassau, Putnam and St. Johns counties. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.