Market Brief

The 10-year Treasury touched 5.04 percent Tuesday morning, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year mortgage index sits at 7.17 percent, a day before a Federal Reserve decision that futures price as the first rate hike since July 2023.

10-year Treasury hit 5.04% on Sept 15, highest since 2007; MND 30-year at 7.17%. Futures put 93% odds on a Fed hike Wednesday, the first since 2023.

The Tuesday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, on the eve of a Federal Reserve meeting that markets expect to end with a rate increase.

The 10-year touched 5 percent for the first time since 2007

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield traded as high as 5.041 percent Tuesday morning, September 15, per Kiplinger's live coverage of the Fed meeting, before easing back to about 4.996 percent by noon Eastern. That intraday high is the highest since 2007. The 2-year sat near 4.656 percent, a 52-week high, and the 30-year Treasury near 5.346 percent. Mortgage News Daily's pricing table had the 10-year at 5.007 percent late Monday.

The drivers are the same three that pushed mortgage rates through 7 percent last week, which we covered in our <a href="/news/florida/macro-brief-september-10-2026/">September 10 brief</a>: oil above $100 a barrel on the Iran conflict (West Texas Intermediate $103.29, up about 20 percent this month), an August CPI print of 3.4 percent, and a Fed that is now expected to tighten rather than ease. HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami wrote on September 12 that the oil-to-yield correlation is doing more to the long end of the curve than anything the Fed says.

Mortgage rates: 7.17 percent on the daily index, 7.28 percent on locked loans

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Monday, September 14, at 7.17 percent, up 5 basis points on the day and the highest reading since January 2025, against a 52-week low of 5.99 percent. The 15-year was 6.70 percent, FHA 6.75 percent, VA 6.77 percent and jumbo 7.28 percent. MND noted that some lenders repriced slightly better midday Monday after oil fell back. The Tuesday close was not yet posted when this brief was written.

HousingWire's locked-rate data, published Tuesday afternoon, had the conforming 30-year at 7.28 percent, up 22 basis points in two weeks, with jumbo at 7.47 percent and FHA at 6.86 percent. The gap between the two figures is the difference between MND's top-tier scenario and an average across all borrowers and credit profiles; retail trackers on Tuesday ranged from 6.95 percent to 7.02 percent depending on the rate sheet sampled. We carry MND as the headline and HousingWire as the all-borrower figure.

The weekly surveys still lag. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey printed 6.76 percent on Thursday, September 10 (6.35 percent a year earlier); the next print is Thursday, September 17, and it will be the first to include the move through 7 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association's survey for the week ending September 4 had the contract rate at 6.85 percent with applications down 2.7 percent, refinances down 6 percent on the week and 25 percent on the year; the next MBA release is Wednesday morning.

The Fed: 93 percent odds of a hike, and economists disagree with the futures

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision, the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Wednesday and Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30. CME FedWatch put the probability of a 25 basis point increase, to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent target range, at 92.7 percent as of about 9:00 a.m. Eastern Tuesday per Kiplinger (93.5 percent Monday); HousingWire cited 92 percent Tuesday afternoon. It would be the first increase since July 2023. The July meeting had three dissents in favor of tighter policy (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan).

Two caveats belong next to that number. First, a Bloomberg survey of 48 economists taken before the September 11 CPI report had only 13 expecting a hike; the futures market and the economists' consensus disagree, and this brief carries both. Second, one Kiplinger live entry Tuesday morning described the expected move as a cut; every other entry on the same page and every other source we read says hike, and we treat the one line as an error. A Duke University and Hilsenrath survey of 32 former Fed officials, published September 14, had 29 expecting a hike. Futures also price one more increase by year end and one to two in 2027, per Johnson Investment Counsel via Kiplinger. The Fed is in its blackout period, so there is no official commentary until Wednesday.

There is a counterintuitive argument in circulation, made by First American's Sam Williamson among others: a credible hike could lower inflation expectations and pull the 10-year, and therefore mortgage rates, down. It is an argument, not a forecast, and Tuesday's 5 percent print says the bond market has not bought it yet.

The week's data: everything lands Wednesday and Thursday

August retail sales print Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. (July was down 0.6 percent on the month, up 5.0 percent on the year). The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for September comes Wednesday at 10:00 a.m.; August read 35, with 35 percent of builders cutting prices by an average 6 percent and 63 percent offering incentives. August housing starts and permits come Thursday (July starts 1.24 million, down 12.4 percent; permits 1.44 million, up 5.0 percent). Lennar reports its fiscal third quarter after the close Wednesday with the call Thursday at 11:00 a.m.; consensus EPS is about $1.30, below last year, and HousingWire noted Monday that the stock trades near 1.05 times tangible book with margins the question. Florida Realtors' August statewide report is scheduled for Wednesday as well.

Inventory and prices: buyers keep the leverage

Redfin's report for the four weeks ending September 6, published September 10, had the national median sale price at $398,637, up 2.2 percent on the year, with the typical monthly payment at $2,641, a 14-month high. Pending sales were down 2.1 percent on the year, new listings up 2.1 percent, active listings up 2.1 percent to 1,506,212, and months of supply at 3.9. 20.8 percent of listings took a price cut in the four weeks, up from 19.8 percent a year earlier, and 25.5 percent sold above list. In Florida, Redfin had West Palm Beach pending sales up 5.9 percent (a top-five gainer), and new listings up 9.7 percent in Tampa and 8.9 percent in Orlando.

Altos Research's weekly count, via HousingWire on September 12, had active inventory dipping from 883,683 to 873,978 over the Labor Day week (the same week in 2025 rose to 860,233), new listings at 58,803 against 64,444 the prior week, price cuts on 42.08 percent of listings, and pending contracts at 56,255 against 62,185. Zillow's August report (September 8) put the typical home value at $369,678, up 1.3 percent on the year and down 0.1 percent on the month, with 1.41 million homes for sale, up 3 percent, and newly pending sales down 2.6 percent. Realtor.com counted 1.14 million active listings in August, up 3.6 percent, and named September 27 to October 3 the best week of the year to buy.

Rents: Jacksonville flat at $1,317

Apartment List's August data had the national median rent at $1,390, up 0.1 percent on the month for a seventh straight monthly rise but still 0.8 percent below a year ago, with vacancy at 7.1 percent. Jacksonville's median was $1,317, flat on the month, with a one-bedroom at $1,108 and a two-bedroom at $1,303.

Distress and insurance: nothing new this week, and that is the note

The most recent ICE Mortgage Monitor (July data) had the national non-current rate at 3.9 percent, down from 4.1 percent, with delinquencies at 3.4 percent and foreclosures at 0.5 percent; the September edition had not been released as of Tuesday. ATTOM's mid-year report, as reported by News4JAX in July, had Florida with the nation's highest foreclosure rate at one filing per 373 housing units and filings up 33 percent on the year, with Jacksonville among the worst metros; the August report was not found. On insurance, no new Florida rate filings or Citizens depopulation figures were published this week; the standing picture is Citizens at roughly 336,000 policies, about 76 percent below its peak, with an 8.7 percent average decrease on spring 2026 renewals. Nothing in this section moved, and we are not inventing movement.

What this means for Northeast Florida

A 10-year at 5 percent with the daily mortgage index at 7.17 percent is the highest-cost financing backdrop Jacksonville buyers have faced since early 2025, and the locked-rate figure says the typical borrower is paying above 7.25 percent. Against that, the region's own data says supply keeps building: Redfin counted 66 percent more sellers than buyers in Jacksonville in August, price cuts sit above one listing in five nationally, and our own realMLS series shows <a href="/blog/jacksonville-zip-codes-under-300k">17 ZIP codes with a median resale price under $300,000</a>, down from 41 in 2020. Wednesday's decision will set the tone for the fall, but the 10-year, not the funds rate, is what a Jacksonville mortgage is priced off, and it moved first.

What we are not saying

We are not forecasting Wednesday's decision, the reaction of the 10-year to it, or where mortgage rates will be at the end of the month. Every figure above carries its date and its source, and several of them (Freddie Mac, MBA, ICE, ATTOM) are a week or more behind the daily indexes. Two sources disagree on the Fed outlook and one on the direction of the expected move; both cases are shown rather than resolved.

People also ask

Will the Fed raise rates on September 16, 2026?

Futures markets price a 92.7 percent chance of a 25 basis point increase to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent target range, per CME FedWatch as reported by Kiplinger Tuesday morning; it would be the first increase since July 2023. A Bloomberg survey of economists taken before the CPI report leaned the other way, with 13 of 48 expecting a hike. The decision is at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Wednesday.

Why did the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5 percent?

Three things at once: oil above $100 a barrel on the Iran conflict, an August CPI reading of 3.4 percent, and the expectation that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. The 10-year traded as high as 5.041 percent on September 15, 2026, its highest since 2007, before easing to just under 5 percent by midday.

Do mortgage rates fall when the Fed raises rates?

Not directly. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the federal funds rate. Some economists argue a credible hike can lower inflation expectations and pull long yields down over time. As of September 14 and 15 the daily 30-year index was 7.17 percent and the locked-rate average 7.28 percent, both at or near their highest in more than a year.

Sources

• Kiplinger, "Fed Meeting Updates and Commentary, September 2026" (live blog, entries through September 15, 2026): https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026
• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index for September 14, 2026 and the rate index page: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09142026 and https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• HousingWire, "Mortgage rates and the Fed hike", September 15, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-rates-fed-hike/
• HousingWire, "Housing market faces headwinds as mortgage rates move above 7%", Logan Mohtashami, September 12, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-market-faces-headwinds-as-mortgage-rates-move-above-7/
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 10, 2026 (via GlobeNewswire): https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359803/0/en/mortgage-rates-average-6-76.html
• Mortgage Bankers Association, weekly applications survey, September 9, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/09/09/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
• Redfin, housing market update for the four weeks ending September 6, 2026 (published September 10): https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-high-costs-sideline-buyers-negotiating-power/
• Zillow Research, August 2026 market report (September 8, 2026): https://www.zillow.com/research/august-2026-market-report/
• Realtor.com, best week to buy 2026 (PR Newswire): https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtorcom-september-27th---october-3rd-marks-the-best-time-to-buy-a-home-in-2026-302875854.html
• NAHB, Housing Market Index page and release calendar: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index
• Apartment List, Jacksonville rent report (August 2026 data): https://www.apartmentlist.com/rent-report/fl/jacksonville
• Florida Realtors, market data release schedule: https://www.floridarealtors.org/newsroom/market-data
• Yahoo Finance, mortgage and refinance rates, September 15, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-and-refinance-interest-rates-today-tuesday-september-15-2026-rates-cross-the-7-threshold-100000413.html

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.