Market Brief

The 30-year fixed enters the Labor Day week at 6.89 percent with the September hike debate unresolved. One inflation report on Friday, September 11, is the last major input before the Fed votes on the 16th, and a Miami builder reports the same night.

Mortgage rates enter Labor Day week at 6.89% (MND, Sept 4) with hike odds near 52 to 58%. August CPI lands Friday, Sept 11; the Fed decides Sept 16.

The Sunday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, and a calendar for the two weeks that decide whether the Fed raises rates for the first time this cycle.

Where rates stand going into the holiday week

Mortgage News Daily's daily 30-year fixed index closed Friday, September 4, at 6.89 percent, up one basis point on the day and two basis points under the 6.91 percent high of Wednesday, September 2, which was also the top of the index's 52-week range (the bottom is 5.99 percent). The 15-year was 6.49 percent, the 30-year jumbo 7.06 percent, the 30-year FHA 6.44 percent and the 30-year VA 6.46 percent, all per MND's rate table dated September 4.

The two weekly surveys sit below the daily quote because they lag it. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, September 3, averaged 6.71 percent, up from 6.66 percent the prior week and from 6.50 percent a year earlier. Chief economist Sam Khater's statement said purchase demand "has remained relatively stable." The Mortgage Bankers Association's contract rate for the week ending August 28, published September 2 and carried in MND's survey table, was 6.79 percent with 0.65 points.

Nothing about that changed over the weekend because nothing trades on a weekend. What changed is that the calendar got short. Monday, September 7, is Labor Day; U.S. stock and bond markets are closed, so the first mortgage rate sheets of the week print Tuesday. Our September 5 brief has the full Friday close and the bond-market detail.

The calendar that matters: four trading days, then a Fed

Here is what is scheduled between now and the Fed decision, with sources.

• Thursday, September 10: Freddie Mac's weekly survey (each Thursday at noon ET per its release schedule). Redfin's weekly housing report and Realtor.com's weekly housing trends normally land the same day.
• Friday, September 11, 8:30 a.m. ET: the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index for August. The BLS schedule lists it as the last inflation print before the meeting.
• Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15 to 16: the Federal Open Market Committee meets; the statement is due at 2:00 p.m. ET on the 16th, per the Federal Reserve's calendar. The current target range is 3.50 to 3.75 percent, as our July minutes report covered.
• Wednesday, September 16, after the close: Lennar Corporation, headquartered in Miami, releases third-quarter results, with the call at 11:00 a.m. ET on September 17, per its September 2 notice.

The order is the point. The CPI comes out five days before the vote, and the largest Florida-based homebuilder reports its quarter three hours after the Fed announces. Anyone writing a contract in Northeast Florida over the next two weeks is doing it around those three dates.

What the rate market is pricing, and how fast it has moved

Futures-implied odds of a quarter-point increase on September 16 have swung more than 30 points in a week. CME Group's own market commentary on September 1 said FedWatch had gone from about 35 percent to as high as 66 percent after Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 that the Fed has "work to do" on its 2 percent target. Governor Christopher Waller's speech Thursday, September 3, in which he said he "would be inclined to support holding" if the next two weeks of inflation data keep improving, took the reading down to 49.4 percent, per IBTimes. Friday's payroll report brought it back to between 52.6 percent (IBTimes, 9:05 a.m.) and 58.4 percent (HousingWire, afternoon).

We carry the range rather than a point because the readings were taken at different hours and disagree. The direction Friday was up. The level is a coin flip. The 10-year Treasury, which the 30-year mortgage tracks, closed Friday at 4.788 percent per MND, up 1.9 basis points on the day.

What Friday's CPI has to show

The July report, released August 12, had headline CPI up 0.1 percent on the month and 3.4 percent over twelve months, with core at 2.5 percent, per the BLS figures as summarized in Kiplinger's inflation outlook of August 13. Kiplinger's staff economist expects August to run hotter because gasoline rose after the July survey, and he put the year-end headline rate at 3.6 percent if gasoline stays above $4 a gallon.

The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast, in its early-August read reported by The Motley Fool on August 9, projected August CPI at 0.38 percent for the month and 3.45 percent year over year, with core CPI at 0.20 percent and 2.43 percent. Those estimates update every business day and we were not able to confirm a reading dated this week, so treat them as the shape of the expectation rather than the consensus number. We are not carrying a Wall Street consensus figure for the August print because we could not find one with a publication date this week.

Waller's own benchmark, from the September 3 speech, is the PCE series: 12-month PCE inflation 3.7 percent, core 3.3 percent, three-month annualized core 3.05 percent, down from 4.76 percent in February. The August PCE report arrives after the meeting, which is why the CPI carries the weight.

The Florida story this weekend: Citizens is sending 45,000 policies back to the market

Citizens Property Insurance Corporation has issued about 45,000 non-renewal notices to homeowners statewide as part of its depopulation program, Insurance Business reported Friday, September 4, citing NBC affiliate WBBH. The report put Citizens' policy count at approximately 270,000, down from a peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023. Citizens' own published count as of April 30, 2026, was 294,894 policies with $88.5 billion in exposure; the two figures are four months apart and both are carried here.

Two rules govern what those 45,000 households pay next. Florida law requires a Citizens policyholder to accept a private offer priced within 20 percent of the Citizens premium, and Citizens spokesperson Michael Peltier told WBBH that private-market premiums are often higher than Citizens' rates. Policyholders have roughly a year to place replacement coverage.

The context is a market that has been getting cheaper on average. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation's statewide average homeowners premium including wind was $3,815 based on April data, and the Insurance Information Institute reported average premiums fell in 51 of 67 counties in the first half of 2026, both per the Insurance Business report. Our county-by-county insurance analysis has the detail, and Citizens' approved 2026 rates carry an average personal-lines decrease of 2.6 percent, per its December 10, 2025 release. A homeowner leaving Citizens may still pay more than before even in a falling market, because the starting point was subsidized.

The distress check: delinquencies up, foreclosures at a six-year high, Florida overrepresented

Intercontinental Exchange's August Mortgage Monitor, reported by HousingWire on August 10, put the national mortgage delinquency rate at 3.55 percent in June, up 5 basis points and still below the 4.16 percent of June 2019. The share of loans in active foreclosure reached 0.53 percent, the highest in six years, with 43,200 foreclosure starts in June.

The Florida figure is in the equity data. ICE counted 813,000 underwater mortgage holders nationally, up 44 percent from a year earlier, and 320,000 borrowers both underwater and behind on payments, nearly double the prior year. Texas and Florida together accounted for 39 percent of underwater homes. Loans originated in 2022 or later made up nearly 35 percent of active foreclosure inventory. FHA loans 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure stood at 5.7 percent, up 1.8 points over the year.

That is the population most exposed to a rate that has risen 39 basis points in twelve months on Freddie Mac's measure: recent buyers, low down payments, in the two states where prices have fallen furthest from peak.

The builder read: Lennar on the Fed's night

Lennar's September 2 notice sets its third-quarter release for after the close on Wednesday, September 16, and the call for 11:00 a.m. ET on the 17th. The Fed's September 2 Beige Book described Sixth District home sales as moving on "discounts and incentives," which we covered in our Beige Book report, and Florida homebuilding permits have fallen for three straight years.

The question for Northeast Florida is not Lennar's margin. It is whether the incentive budget that has been carrying new-home sales in the state survives a quarter in which the mortgage rate rose about 40 basis points. Lennar's call is the first large-builder answer of the season.

Supply and demand, as of the last data

Redfin's September 3 report for the four weeks ending August 30 had national new listings up 8 percent year over year to the highest level since August 2022, pending sales down 2.5 percent to the lowest since February, and months of supply at 4.0. Realtor.com's August report, covered in our September 2 analysis, had Jacksonville active listings down 16.9 percent year over year while national inventory rose 3.6 percent. Apartment List's August report, published August 26, had the national median rent at $1,390, up 0.1 percent on the month and down 0.8 percent on the year.

None of that updates until Thursday.

What this means for Northeast Florida

For a buyer: a 6.89 percent daily rate, a 6.71 percent weekly average, and the rate that a lender quotes Tuesday morning will be somewhere near the first number. On a $350,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.89 percent is about $2,303 a month, against about $2,212 at the 6.50 percent Freddie Mac recorded a year ago, a difference of roughly $91 a month or $1,090 a year, using a standard amortization formula. If a contract is signed this week, Friday at 8:30 a.m. is the moment the lock decision resolves, not the 16th. Either CPI outcome reaches the 10-year Treasury before it reaches the FOMC.

For a seller: the Jacksonville supply picture is tighter than the national one by Realtor.com's count, which is why the Jacksonville market sped up in July even as closings fell. A seller's competition is not other listings this month so much as the payment math above, and the payment math is set in Washington on Friday and Wednesday.

For anyone holding a Citizens policy: the 45,000 letters are a reminder to price the private market now rather than at renewal. Our break-even analysis shows how carrying costs, not just the purchase price, decide how long a Florida home takes to pay for its own transaction costs.

What we are not saying

We are not saying the Fed will hike on September 16; Friday's futures readings ranged from 52 to 58 percent and the governor who moved the market said his vote depends on a report that has not been published. We are not forecasting the August CPI; the nowcast we cite was taken in early August and updates daily. We are not saying Citizens' policy count is 270,000 or 294,894; the two figures are dated four months apart and the first is a news report's approximation. And we are not saying a Lennar result on the 16th tells you what a Jacksonville builder will offer on the 17th.

People also ask

What are mortgage rates right now, September 6, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's index closed Friday, September 4, 2026, at 6.89 percent for a top-tier 30-year fixed, up 0.01 on the day and just under the 6.91 percent high set September 2. Freddie Mac's weekly survey released September 3 averaged 6.71 percent, up from 6.66 percent and from 6.50 percent a year earlier. Markets are closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day, so the next daily reading is Tuesday. Individual quotes vary by credit, down payment, loan type and lender.

When is the next Fed meeting and will it raise rates?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets September 15 to 16, 2026, with the decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on the 16th. CME FedWatch readings on September 4 put the probability of a quarter-point increase between 52.6 percent (IBTimes, morning) and 58.4 percent (HousingWire, afternoon), after touching about 66 percent on September 1 and 49.4 percent on September 3. Governor Christopher Waller said September 3 he would support a hold if August inflation data continue to improve. The August CPI is due Friday, September 11, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Why is Citizens Property Insurance sending non-renewal notices in Florida?

Citizens has issued about 45,000 non-renewal notices statewide as part of its depopulation program, which moves policies to private insurers as the market recovers, per an Insurance Business report of September 4, 2026, citing WBBH. Its count was about 270,000 policies per that report, and 294,894 as of April 30, 2026, per Citizens' own data, against a peak near 1.4 million in September 2023. Florida law requires policyholders to accept a private offer priced within 20 percent of their Citizens premium; recipients have about a year to place new coverage.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, Today's Mortgage Rates: Daily Index, rate table as of September 4, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, "Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs Report", September 4, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260904
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, "Mortgage Rates Average 6.71%", September 3, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/03/3356148/0/en/mortgage-rates-average-6-71.html
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Schedule of Selected Releases, September 2026 (CPI for August due September 11, 8:30 a.m. ET): https://www.bls.gov/schedule/
• Federal Reserve Board, FOMC meeting calendars (September 15 to 16, 2026): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• Federal Reserve Board, Governor Christopher J. Waller, "The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication", September 3, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.htm
• CME Group, "Tech Earnings Wrap and Shifting Fed Rate Hike Probabilities", September 1, 2026: https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/01/tech-earnings-wrap-and-shifting-fed-rate-hike-probabilities.html
• IBTimes, "The Jobs Report Surprised To The Upside. Chances Of a Fed Rate Hike Edged Up.", September 4, 2026: https://www.ibtimes.com/jobs-report-surprised-upside-chances-fed-rate-hike-edged-3807133
• HousingWire, "Trump threatens trade halt if Fed does not cut rates", September 4, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/trump-trade-fed-rates/
• Kiplinger, David Payne, "Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Lower Inflation in July, but a Pickup Coming in August", updated August 13, 2026: https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/inflation
• The Motley Fool, Bram Berkowitz, "The Federal Reserve Just Released Its August Inflation Forecast...", August 9, 2026 (Cleveland Fed nowcast as of August 6): https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/09/federal-reserve-just-released-august-inflation/
• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Inflation Nowcasting (updated each business day): https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
• Lennar Corporation, "Lennar Corporation to Broadcast Its Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call on September 17, 2026", September 2, 2026: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lennar-corporation-to-broadcast-its-third-quarter-2026-earnings-call-on-september-17-2026-302868127.html
• Insurance Business, Mark Rosanes, "Citizens cuts policy count to 270,000 amid non-renewal push", September 4, 2026: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/citizens-cuts-policy-count-to-270000-amid-nonrenewal-push-588731.aspx
• Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, Policies in Force as of April 30, 2026: https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20260430-policies-in-force
• Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, "Citizens Recommends Rate Cuts for Most Policyholders", December 10, 2025: https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20251210-citizens-recommends-rate-cuts-for-most-policyholders
• HousingWire, "Home equity hits $18T even as delinquencies, foreclosures rise, ICE says" (ICE August 2026 Mortgage Monitor), August 10, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/ice-homeowner-equity-delinquency/
• Redfin, "Homebuyers Have More Fresh Options Than They've Had in 4 Years", four weeks ending August 30, published September 3, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-4-year-high/
• Apartment List, National Rent Report, August 2026 data, published August 26, 2026: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data
• Momentum Research, "Mortgage Rates Barely Moved on the Jobs Shock. Now the Fed", September 5, 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/macro-brief-september-5-2026/
• Momentum Research, "Fed Minutes: Three Dissents for a Hike, None for a Cut", August 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/fomc-minutes-july-2026/
• Momentum Research, "Florida Home Insurance Rates Falling: 51 of 67 Counties in 2026", August 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/florida-home-insurance-rates-falling-august-2026/
• Momentum Research, "Fed Beige Book: Southeast Home Sales Up on Discounts", September 2, 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/beige-book-september-2026/
• Momentum Research, "Florida Metro Inventory Fell as US Listings Rose 3.6%", September 2, 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/realtor-com-august-2026-housing-trends/

All figures are as published on the dates given. Third-party figures are attributed to their publisher and have not been independently verified. Nowcasts, consensus estimates and futures-implied probabilities are market or model expectations, not forecasts by this publication. Payment examples are illustrative, use principal and interest only, and exclude taxes, insurance and fees. This is general market information, not financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.