Market Brief

The 30-year fixed closed the week at 6.89 percent, one basis point higher, after a payroll report three times the consensus. The bond market had already priced the hike debate, and the August CPI on September 11 now decides it.

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year sat at 6.89% Friday, up 0.01 after payrolls beat by 100,000. Hike odds are a coin flip into the Sept 15 to 16 Fed meeting.

The weekend read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, and what the week's data means for a buyer or seller in Northeast Florida heading into the September Fed decision.

The number that matters this weekend

Mortgage News Daily's daily 30-year fixed index closed Friday, September 4, at 6.89 percent, up one basis point on the day. The 15-year was 6.49 percent, the 30-year jumbo 7.06 percent, and the 30-year FHA held at 6.44 percent. The index had touched 6.91 percent on Wednesday, September 2, its highest reading in more than a year, and Friday's close stayed under it.

That is the story. A payroll report of 162,000 against a consensus MND put at 56,000, and CNBC at 53,000, moved the average mortgage rate by one hundredth of a point. MND's Friday write-up said the job count "carries a bit less weight than it used to."

Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released Thursday, September 3, put the 30-year at 6.71 percent, up from 6.66 percent the prior week and 6.50 percent a year ago. That is an 18-basis-point spread between the lagging weekly average and the live daily quote, and the daily number is the one a lender works from on Monday.

Why the bond market shrugged

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.788 percent, up 1.9 basis points, per MND's end-of-day table. Trading Economics had it "nearly 3 basis points" higher at 4.79 percent, reversing two days of declines.

HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami wrote Friday that "a lot is priced into the bond market now and it's getting harder and harder to push yields, and mortgage rates, much higher." His three-month average payroll gain of 82,000 sits just above his 78,000 break-even, which lets the Fed treat labor as settled and focus on inflation. Average hourly earnings up 3.1 percent over the year, a cycle low, is the part of the report the bond market liked.

The payroll surprise removed the weak-labor argument against a hike. It did not add a new argument for one, because the market had been leaning that way since Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 28.

The Fed meets September 15 to 16, and the odds are a coin flip

A correction first. Yesterday's brief and several earlier ones referred to a September 16 to 17 meeting. The Federal Reserve's calendar and Governor Christopher Waller's speech text both put the FOMC on September 15 and 16, with the decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on the 16th. We regret the error.

On the odds, we carry three readings taken at different hours Friday because they disagree. IBTimes, citing CME FedWatch at 9:05 a.m., had a 52.6 percent probability of a quarter-point hike, up from 49.4 percent Thursday. Trading Economics had "nearly 52 percent." HousingWire, filed at 4:16 p.m., reported 58.4 percent "as of Friday." The range is 52 to 58, the direction was up, and it is not a settled call.

Waller is why the odds fell midweek. At a Reuters event Thursday, September 3, he said that if disinflation continues in the data due over the next two weeks he "would be inclined to support holding" the funds rate, and in the same paragraph that if August inflation shows the improvement "has been fleeting, then it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate." His numbers: 12-month PCE inflation 3.7 percent, core 3.3 percent, three-month annualized core 3.05 percent, down from 4.76 percent in February. He judged policy "only slightly restricting aggregate demand."

So the vote is conditional on one release: the August Consumer Price Index, 8:30 a.m. ET, Friday, September 11, per the BLS schedule. President Trump added a political variable Friday afternoon, posting on Truth Social that the Fed should "LOWER THE RATE" and threatening to halt trade with surplus countries if it does not, per HousingWire and Quartz. The 10-year's response was the 2-basis-point rise noted above.

What the week's housing data added

Redfin's September 3 report for the four weeks ending August 30 had national new listings up 8 percent year over year to their highest level since August 2022, pending sales down 2.5 percent to their lowest since February, and months of supply at 4.0. Our September 4 brief has the metro detail, including Jacksonville's 4.2 percent year-over-year drop in new listings.

On rents, Apartment List's August report, published August 26, had the national median at $1,390, up 0.1 percent on the month for a seventh straight gain and down 0.8 percent over the year, with multifamily vacancy easing to 7.1 percent from a 7.3 percent February peak. Tampa was named among the metros still posting the sharpest annual rent declines.

What this means for Northeast Florida

For a Jacksonville buyer the arithmetic this weekend is a daily rate of 6.89 percent, a weekly survey of 6.71 percent, and a Fed that has named the release that decides its vote. If a contract is being written this week, September 11 is the date to lock around, not the meeting five days later. Either CPI outcome reaches the 10-year Treasury before it reaches the FOMC.

The local supply picture has not changed since Thursday. Realtor.com's August data, covered September 2, had Jacksonville active listings down 16.9 percent year over year while national inventory rose 3.6 percent. A Jacksonville seller faces fewer competing listings than a year ago. A buyer paying 6.89 percent instead of the 6.50 percent in Freddie Mac's year-ago survey has roughly 4 percent less purchasing power on the same payment. Those pull in opposite directions on price, consistent with the Fed's September 2 Beige Book describing Sixth District sales as moving on "discounts and incentives," covered in our Beige Book report.

On carrying cost, Citizens Property Insurance's approved 2026 rates carry a statewide average personal-lines decrease of 2.6 percent, the first since 2015, per Citizens' December 10, 2025 release. That is a slow tailwind. It does not offset a 39-basis-point rise in the mortgage rate over twelve months. Our break-even analysis, built at 6.66 percent, shows the sensitivity.

What we are not saying

We are not saying the Fed will hike on September 16; the readings range from 52 to 58 percent, and the governor who moved the market said his vote depends on a report not yet published. We are not saying rates have peaked because a daily index held under Wednesday's high for two days. And we are not forecasting the CPI.

People also ask

What are mortgage rates right now, September 5, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's index closed Friday, September 4, 2026, at 6.89 percent for a top-tier 30-year fixed, up 0.01 on the day and below the 6.91 percent high of September 2. Freddie Mac's weekly survey released September 3 averaged 6.71 percent, up from 6.66 percent and from 6.50 percent a year earlier. Individual quotes vary by credit, down payment, loan type and lender.

Will the Fed raise rates at the September 2026 meeting?

It is close to a coin flip. CME FedWatch readings on September 4 ranged from 52.6 percent (IBTimes, morning) to 58.4 percent (HousingWire, afternoon) for a quarter-point hike at the September 15 to 16 meeting. Governor Christopher Waller said September 3 he would support a hold if August inflation data continue to improve and would consider a hike if they do not. The August CPI is due September 11.

Did the August 2026 jobs report push mortgage rates up?

Barely. BLS reported September 4 that payrolls rose 162,000 against a consensus of 53,000 to 56,000, with unemployment at 4.1 percent. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index rose one basis point to 6.89 percent and the 10-year Treasury rose about 2 to 3 basis points to roughly 4.79 percent. HousingWire attributed the muted response to a bond market that had already priced the hike debate and to 3.1 percent wage growth, a cycle low.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, Daily Newsletter and "Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs Report", September 4, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260904
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, "Mortgage Rates Average 6.71%", September 3, 2026: https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-671
• Federal Reserve Board, Governor Christopher J. Waller, "The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication", September 3, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.htm
• Federal Reserve Board, FOMC meeting calendars (September 15 to 16, 2026): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• IBTimes, "The Jobs Report Surprised To The Upside. Chances Of a Fed Rate Hike Edged Up.", September 4, 2026, 9:05 a.m. ET: https://www.ibtimes.com/jobs-report-surprised-upside-chances-fed-rate-hike-edged-3807133
• HousingWire, "Trump threatens trade halt if Fed does not cut rates", September 4, 2026, 4:16 p.m. ET: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/trump-trade-fed-rates/
• HousingWire, Logan Mohtashami, "Why mortgage rates barely budged after jobs report beat estimates", September 4, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/why-mortgage-rates-barely-budged-after-jobs-report-beat-estimates/
• Trading Economics, "US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield", September 4, 2026: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
• Quartz, "Trump threatens trade cutoff if Fed doesn't cut interest rates", September 4, 2026: https://qz.com/trump-trade-deficit-fed-interest-rates-090426
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Schedule of Selected Releases, September 2026 (CPI for August due September 11): https://www.bls.gov/schedule/
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "The Employment Situation, August 2026", September 4, 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
• Redfin, "Homebuyers Have More Fresh Options Than They've Had in 4 Years", four weeks ending August 30, published September 3, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-4-year-high/
• Apartment List, National Rent Report, August 2026 data, published August 26, 2026: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data
• Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, "Citizens Recommends Rate Cuts for Most Policyholders", December 10, 2025: https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20251210-citizens-recommends-rate-cuts-for-most-policyholders
• Momentum Research, "Mortgage Rates Face a 162,000 Jobs Surprise Before the Fed", September 4, 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/macro-brief-september-4-2026/
• Momentum Research, "Florida Metro Inventory Fell as US Listings Rose 3.6%", September 2, 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/realtor-com-august-2026-housing-trends/
• Momentum Research, "Fed Beige Book: Southeast Home Sales Up on Discounts", September 2, 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/beige-book-september-2026/

All figures are as published on the dates given. Third-party figures are attributed to their publisher and have not been independently verified. Consensus estimates and futures-implied probabilities are market expectations, not forecasts by this publication. This is general market information, not financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.