Market Brief

Mortgage rates rose for a sixth straight day to 7.22 percent on the eve of the Fed decision, the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.00 percent for the first time since 2007, and futures still price a hike at 2 p.m. Wednesday.

MND 30-year hit 7.22% on Sept 15, a sixth straight rise. 10-year closed at 5.00%, highest since 2007. Fed decides at 2 p.m.; futures price a 92.5% hike.

The Wednesday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, written before the Federal Reserve's 2:00 p.m. Eastern decision. Nothing below assumes an outcome. Yesterday's <a href="/news/florida/macro-brief-september-15-2026/">September 15 brief</a> covered the 10-year's intraday run to 5.04 percent; today's lead is the mortgage index, which kept climbing after the bond market steadied.

Mortgage rates: 7.22 percent, six days up, the sharpest jump since October 2024

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Tuesday, September 15, at 7.22 percent, up 5 basis points on the day and the sixth consecutive increase. MND said the most prevalently quoted top-tier rate is now 7.25 percent, that the index is up 0.33 percentage points over the six sessions, the most abrupt jump since October 2024, and that the reading is the highest since January 2025. The 15-year was 6.82 percent (up 12 basis points), jumbo 7.38 percent, FHA 6.80 percent and VA 6.82 percent. Every one of those is a 52-week high; the 30-year's 52-week low was 5.99 percent. The Wednesday close, the first to include the Fed statement, was not posted when this brief was written.

The other daily series say the same thing at different levels. Optimal Blue's rate-lock index, published via FRED with a one-day lag, was 6.97 percent for Monday, September 14, a fourth straight rise and a one-year high, up 20 basis points across five observations from 6.77 percent, per MortgageDaily's September 16 report. HousingWire's locked-rate ticker read 7.28 percent, down 1 basis point, when checked Wednesday morning. Fortune's Mortgage Research Center data had the 30-year refinance average at 7.142 percent as of September 15. The spread between MND's 7.22 percent and Optimal Blue's 6.97 percent is the difference between a top-tier quote and an average across every credit profile that locked; we carry both.

The weekly surveys remain a week behind. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey was 6.76 percent on September 10; Thursday's print will be the first to capture the move through 7 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association's most recent survey, for the week ending September 4, had the contract rate at 6.85 percent with applications down 2.7 percent, refinances down 6 percent on the week and 25 percent on the year. The MBA release for the week ending September 11 is due Wednesday morning and had not posted when this brief was written.

The 10-year: a 5.00 percent close, the highest since 2007

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday at 5.00 percent, up from 4.97 percent Monday and 4.96 percent Friday, per the U.S. Treasury's daily yield curve as reported by MortgageDaily on September 16. Quartz reported Wednesday morning that it was the highest closing level since 2007 and that yields were still holding above 5 percent as trading opened; CNBC's Wednesday coverage carried the same framing. The intraday high remains Tuesday's 5.041 percent. The 2-year closed at 4.67 percent, well above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent funds-rate target, which is the bond market's way of saying it expects more than one increase. MND's own table had the 10-year at 5.001 percent late Tuesday, and its analysts published a Tuesday morning note titled "5% Yields Bringing Value Buyers?", which is the first time in this run that anyone has framed 5 percent as a level that might attract demand rather than repel it.

Oil is still the reason the long end is where it is. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery was trading at $104.23 a barrel Wednesday morning, up 2.8 percent on the day, per Yahoo Finance's market ticker; it was $103.29 Monday and is up roughly 20 percent for the month, per Kiplinger. Equity futures were lower again, with the Dow off about 1 percent in early Wednesday trading.

The Fed: 92.5 percent, and the economists have moved to the futures' side

The decision, Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot come at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, with Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30. CME FedWatch put the probability of a 25 basis point increase, to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent target range, at 92.5 percent Wednesday morning per Quartz; Yahoo Finance had 92.7 percent Tuesday and Kiplinger had 93 percent Monday. It would be the first increase since July 2023.

The disagreement we carried yesterday has narrowed but not closed. Yesterday's brief cited a Bloomberg survey of 48 economists, taken before the September 11 CPI report, in which only 13 expected a hike. A Reuters poll published Monday, September 14, and taken after the CPI report, had 86 of 101 economists expecting a quarter-point increase, reversing what had been a two-thirds majority for a hold the prior week, per Quartz. The Duke University and Hilsenrath survey of 32 former Fed officials, published September 14, had 29 saying the Fed should raise. Deutsche Bank strategists wrote Tuesday evening, per Kiplinger, that a hold would be the largest dovish surprise at a scheduled meeting since the Fed began announcing decisions in 1994.

Two dissenting framings still exist and belong on the page. MortgageDaily's September 16 report says its base case is a hold, with the statement and press conference carrying the message, and MND's Tuesday rate commentary noted that "not all experts agree that a hike is a foregone conclusion." On the political side, Kiplinger relayed a Wall Street Journal report that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday that inflation is improving and the Fed does not need to raise rates, while adding that the White House would support whatever the Fed decides. The Fed remains in its blackout period.

One more correction of the record: yesterday's brief noted that a single Kiplinger live entry Tuesday morning described the expected move as a "cut." That line is still on the page; every other entry and every other source says hike, and we continue to treat it as an error.

What a hike does and does not do to a Florida mortgage

MND made the point plainly Tuesday: the funds rate applies to a different part of the curve than a 30-year mortgage, and in the past six weeks funds-rate expectations and long-term rates have moved in opposite directions more than once. A hike by itself does not mean higher mortgage rates, and MND noted that some would argue a hold would be the worse outcome for long rates. MortgageDaily's arithmetic for the same point: on a $400,000 loan, 6.97 percent is $2,653 a month in principal and interest, a quarter point higher would be $2,721, and a year ago at 6.26 percent it was $2,465. The lock-or-float question for anyone closing inside 45 days ends at 2:00 p.m.; rate sheets typically reprice within the hour after a Fed statement.

Wednesday and Thursday data: what is due and what is not out yet

August retail sales print at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday; July was down 0.6 percent on the month and up 5.0 percent on the year, per the Census Bureau's August 14 release, and the August number was not available when this brief was written. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for September comes at 10:00 a.m.; August read 35, up one point, with 35 percent of builders cutting prices by an average 6 percent and 63 percent offering incentives, per NAHB. A note on sourcing: a search for the September index surfaces a September 2025 release (a reading of 32) that is a year old; we checked the date and dropped it. August housing starts and permits come Thursday.

Lennar reports fiscal third-quarter results after the close Wednesday, with the call Thursday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. Consensus per AlphaStreet and Yahoo Finance is earnings of $1.30 a share on revenue of $8.37 billion, down 35 percent and 4.9 percent respectively from a year ago. The results were not out at writing time; the margin figure and Florida order commentary will be in Thursday's brief. Freddie Mac's survey prints Thursday morning, and Redfin's next four-week update is due Thursday as well.

Inventory and prices: no new national print, so the standing numbers hold

Redfin's most recent report, for the four weeks ending September 6 and published September 10, had the national median sale price at $398,637, up 2.2 percent on the year, the typical monthly payment at a 14-month high of $2,641, pending sales down 2.1 percent on the year, new listings at a four-year high, and 20.8 percent of listings taking a price cut, up from 19.8 percent a year earlier. Those figures are unchanged from yesterday because Redfin has not published since.

Altos Research's count via HousingWire had active inventory at 873,978 for the Labor Day week (down from 883,683), with price cuts on 42.08 percent of listings; HousingWire's ticker still showed 873,978 Wednesday morning, so the next weekly figure has not posted. HousingWire's September analysis noted that the price-cut share, at 42.14 percent the prior week, matched last year's level for the first time in 2026, and that mortgage rates above 6.64 percent have shifted weekly pending sales from growth to flat or slightly negative on the year. Zillow's August report (September 8) had the typical home value at $369,678, up 1.3 percent on the year, with 1.41 million homes for sale.

For Florida, Redfin's state page for August had the median sale price at $383,403, up 0.9 percent on the year, 30,212 homes sold (up 1.3 percent) and median days on market at 73, three days faster than a year ago. Florida Realtors' own August statewide report was scheduled for this week and had not been published when this brief was written; when it lands, its figures supersede Redfin's for the state.

Rents: Jacksonville at $1,317, unchanged

Apartment List's August data had the national median rent at $1,390, up 0.1 percent on the month and 0.8 percent below a year ago, with vacancy at 7.1 percent. Jacksonville's median was $1,317, flat on the month, with a one-bedroom at $1,108 and a two-bedroom at $1,303. No newer rent data was published this week.

Distress: ICE's July data says performance is steadying, foreclosure inventory is not

ICE's First Look at July mortgage performance, published August 25, is the most recent hard read. The national delinquency rate fell 16 basis points in July, with improvement at every stage; it sits 12 basis points above a year ago and 46 basis points below July 2019. Serious delinquencies fell for a fifth straight month, and 102,000 borrowers became 90-plus days past due, down 4 percent on the year, with FHA new defaults down 13 percent. The other side: foreclosure starts were 38,600, up 23 percent on the year, and active foreclosure inventory was up 43 percent on the year, though completed sales remain at 59 percent of pre-pandemic volume. The Mortgage Monitor's July non-current rate was 3.9 percent, as carried yesterday. The August First Look is due in the second half of September and was not out at writing time.

Florida insurance and condos: still nothing new this week

No new Florida rate filings, Citizens depopulation figures or condo-reserve enforcement news carried a September 15 or 16 date. The standing picture, from Citizens' 2026 rate kit and Florida Voice News: Citizens' policy count around 336,000, roughly 76 percent below its October 2023 peak, with an average 8.8 percent decrease on multiperil renewals and 5.5 percent on wind-only. Yesterday's brief cited the multiperil figure as 8.7 percent; the Citizens rate kit says 8.8 percent, and we carry the rate kit as the primary source. As with yesterday, this section did not move.

What this means for Northeast Florida

The daily mortgage index has now risen for six sessions into a Fed meeting that markets are almost certain will end in a hike, and a Jacksonville buyer who locked before the run began on September 8 is a third of a point better off than one locking today. What the region has going the other way is supply: Redfin counted 66 percent more sellers than buyers in Jacksonville in August, the national price-cut share sits at one listing in five, and our realMLS series still shows <a href="/blog/jacksonville-zip-codes-under-300k">17 ZIP codes with a median resale price under $300,000</a>. Whatever the Fed does at 2:00, the number that prices a Jacksonville mortgage is the 10-year, and it closed at 5.00 percent Tuesday. Thursday's brief will carry the decision, the Freddie Mac print, the MBA applications data and Lennar's Florida commentary in one place.

What we are not saying

We are not forecasting the decision or the bond market's reaction to it. This brief was written Wednesday morning; the retail sales, NAHB, MBA and Lennar figures listed as pending were genuinely not published at that time, and we would rather say so than guess. The futures market and the two most recent economist polls now agree on a hike; two published base cases for a hold are named above rather than dropped. Every figure carries its source and date, and the weekly and monthly series (Freddie Mac, MBA, Redfin, ICE, Apartment List) lag the daily indexes by a week or more.

People also ask

What is the mortgage rate on September 16, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index was 7.22 percent at the close of September 15, 2026, the sixth straight daily increase and the highest reading since January 2025. Optimal Blue's rate-lock average was 6.97 percent for September 14, and HousingWire's locked-rate figure was 7.28 percent Wednesday morning. Freddie Mac's weekly survey, last at 6.76 percent on September 10, updates Thursday.

Will the Fed raise rates on September 16, 2026?

Futures markets price a 92.5 percent chance of a 25 basis point increase to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent target range, per CME FedWatch as reported by Quartz Wednesday morning. A Reuters poll published September 14 had 86 of 101 economists expecting a hike. The decision is at 2:00 p.m. Eastern; this brief was written before it and does not report an outcome.

Why is the 10-year Treasury yield at 5 percent?

The 10-year closed at 5.00 percent on September 15, 2026, its highest close since 2007, per U.S. Treasury data. The drivers are oil above $100 a barrel on the Iran conflict, an August CPI reading of 3.4 percent, and the expectation that the Fed will tighten. Mortgage rates are priced off the 10-year, not the federal funds rate.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index and "Mortgage Rates Higher Again Ahead of Fed", September 15, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, MBS commentary "5% Yields Bringing Value Buyers?", September 15, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09152026
• MortgageDaily, "Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year 6.97%", September 16, 2026 (Optimal Blue via FRED; Treasury daily yield curve): https://www.mortgagedaily.com/rates/mortgage-rates-today-2026-09-16/
• Quartz, "Treasury yields are hovering at a 19-year high as the Fed prepares to raise rates", September 16, 2026: https://qz.com/treasury-yields-5-percent-fed-rate-hike-decision-091626
• Quartz, "Economists are now widely expecting the Fed to hike rates this week" (Reuters poll), September 14, 2026: https://qz.com/fed-rate-hike-september-economists-poll-091426
• CNBC, "Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision", September 16, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html
• Kiplinger, "September Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary" (entries through September 15, 2026): https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026
• Yahoo Finance, Fed meeting live updates, September 15, 2026 (and market ticker, September 16): https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/live/federal-reserve-meeting-live-updates-chairman-kevin-warsh-143452661.html
• Fortune, "Current refi mortgage rates report for Sept. 16, 2026": https://fortune.com/article/current-refi-mortgage-rates-09-16-2026/
• HousingWire, "Mortgage rates and the Fed hike", September 15, 2026 (ticker read September 16): https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-rates-fed-hike/
• HousingWire, "Housing market faces headwinds as mortgage rates move above 7%", September 12, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-market-faces-headwinds-as-mortgage-rates-move-above-7/
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 10, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
• Mortgage Bankers Association, weekly applications survey, September 9, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/09/09/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
• U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Sales, July 2026 (August 14, 2026; August release scheduled September 16): https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
• NAHB, Housing Market Index, August 2026 key findings: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index
• Lennar, third-quarter 2026 earnings call notice, September 2, 2026: https://newsroom.lennar.com/2026-09-02-Lennar-Corporation-to-Broadcast-Its-Third-Quarter-2026-Earnings-Call-on-September-17,-2026
• AlphaStreet, Lennar Q3 2026 preview: https://news.alphastreet.com/lennar-len-q3-2026-preview-eps-est-1-30-reports-september-17/
• Redfin, housing market update for the four weeks ending September 6, 2026 (published September 10): https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-high-costs-sideline-buyers-negotiating-power/
• Redfin, Florida housing market page (August 2026 data): https://www.redfin.com/state/Florida/housing-market
• Zillow Research, August 2026 market report (September 8, 2026): https://www.zillow.com/research/august-2026-market-report/
• Apartment List, Jacksonville rent report (August 2026 data): https://www.apartmentlist.com/rent-report/fl/jacksonville
• ICE, First Look at July 2026 mortgage data, August 25, 2026: https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports/first-look-at-july-2026-mortgage-data
• Citizens Property Insurance, 2026 rate kit: https://www.citizensfla.com/documents/20702/35182283/2026+Rate+Kit.pdf/a9199889-6745-3479-f061-6a6983f3d373?t=1765383355156
• Florida Voice News, "Citizens homeowners insurance rates to drop statewide in 2026": https://flvoicenews.com/citizens-homeowners-insurance-rates-to-drop-statewide-in-2026/
• Florida Realtors, market data release schedule: https://www.floridarealtors.org/newsroom/market-data

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.