Market Brief

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on a 12-0 vote, the dot plot points to at least one more increase this year, and the mortgage index rose for a seventh day to 7.24 percent after Chair Warsh said the Fed had removed "a dose of accommodation."

Fed hiked 25 bp to 3.75 to 4% on Sept 16, first since 2023; dot plot shows one more in 2026. MND 30-year hit 7.24%, 7th straight rise. Lennar cut guidance.

The Thursday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, the first written after the Federal Reserve's decision. Yesterday's <a href="/news/florida/macro-brief-september-16-2026/">September 16 brief</a> went out before the 2:00 p.m. statement and said so; today's lead is what the Fed did, what its members expect next, and what the bond market and the daily mortgage index did in the hours after.

The Fed: a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, unanimous, first hike since July 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Wednesday, September 16, on a 12 to 0 vote, per the Fed's statement. It is the first increase since July 2023 and follows five straight holds; the July 29 hold had drawn three dissents in favor of a hike, so the unanimous vote is itself a change, as Real Estate News noted Wednesday. The statement said economic activity is "expanding at a solid pace," that "domestic spending has been resilient," that job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and that "inflation remains elevated." It added that the action "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal" and that "the Committee will deliver price stability."

The Summary of Economic Projections moved with it. The median federal funds rate projection for the end of 2026 is now 4.1 percent, up from 3.8 percent in June, which implies one more quarter-point increase this year. The 2027 median is 4.1 percent (June: 3.6), 2028 is 3.9 percent (June: 3.4), and the longer-run estimate ticked up to 3.2 percent from 3.1. Median PCE inflation for 2026 is 3.7 percent (June: 3.6) and core PCE 3.4 percent (June: 3.3), with core not reaching 2.0 percent until 2029. The unemployment projection fell to 4.1 percent for 2026 from 4.3, and real GDP growth for 2026 rose to 2.3 percent from 2.2. Eighteen participants submitted projections.

Two counts of the dot plot are in circulation and we carry both. CNBC reported that 16 of 18 participants expect another increase, four of them two more. Redfin's Chen Zhao read the same grid as 12 of 18 looking for at least one more hike this year and eight looking for another next year, and noted that Chair Warsh abstained from submitting a dot. The difference is what "another increase" is measured against; the median is the same in both readings.

Warsh's press conference is what moved rates, not the hike

Mortgage News Daily's Matthew Graham made the sequencing point in his Wednesday evening column: the hike was almost fully priced in, and the 10-year Treasury barely moved when the statement hit at 2:00. Yields rose only after the 2:30 p.m. press conference began. Warsh declined to frame the move as a close call. He said the economy was strong, that inflation had not made real progress recently, and that the Fed needed to "remove some accommodation," which, as MND put it, implies current rates are still accommodative and that there is more to remove.

Other quotes from the presser, per Real Estate News and Redfin: Warsh called it "a sober decision," said "inflation risks are to the upside, while labor risks are roughly balanced," said the Fed "cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices" but will ensure relative price changes "don't broaden out," and, asked about the committee's projection that core inflation does not return to 2 percent until 2029, said "those aren't my projections." Redfin's read is that his own dot would have sat at the high end. Bank of America's Stephen Juneau wrote Tuesday, per HousingWire, that markets are pricing roughly 100 basis points of additional tightening over the next year and that BofA expects 75 basis points, delivered faster, by the end of 2026. InvestingLive's Adam Button had the market pricing 28 basis points of further hikes this year after the statement, up from 26 before it.

Mortgage rates: 7.24 percent, a seventh straight increase

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Wednesday at 7.24 percent, up 2 basis points and the seventh consecutive increase, the highest since January 13, 2025. The 15-year was 6.84 percent, jumbo 7.40 percent, FHA 6.82 percent, VA 6.84 percent, and the 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.69 percent; every fixed product is at a 52-week high and the 30-year's 52-week low remains 5.99 percent. MND's headline was "No, The Fed Didn't Hike Mortgage Rates Today," and the argument was that a Fed committed to inflation is good for long rates eventually, but that the presser lengthened the timeline. Graham wrote that had Wednesday been a half-hearted hike, the benefit could have shown up "tomorrow"; as it stands it could take longer, and depends on the Iran war.

HousingWire's locked-rate ticker read 7.28 percent Thursday morning, down 1 basis point. The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, released Wednesday for the week ending September 11, had the conforming 30-year contract rate at 6.97 percent, up 12 basis points and the highest since May 2025, with jumbo at 7.03 percent (up 29), FHA 6.62 percent and 15-year 6.30 percent. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey prints at noon Thursday; the September 10 reading was 6.76 percent and the new print had not posted when this brief was written.

The 10-year: above 5 percent at the close, drifting under it overnight

MND's Treasury table had the 10-year yield at 5.018 percent at Wednesday's close, up 1.7 basis points, after trading lower earlier in the day; InvestingLive noted 10s were down 4 basis points right after the statement, before the presser reversed it. At 5:18 a.m. Eastern Thursday the same table showed 4.988 percent, down 3.1 basis points, with the 2-year at 4.705 percent and the 30-year at 5.334 percent. The 2-year at 4.7 percent against a 4.0 percent ceiling on the funds rate is the market saying more hikes are coming.

Oil is easing at the margin. WTI was $102.14 a barrel Thursday morning, down 0.2 percent, with Brent at $105.81, per CNBC, as concern over the attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline eased and Saudi Arabia said it expected to restore half the line's capacity within days, per InvestingLive. CNBC reported this week that the one-month rolling correlation between front-month WTI and the 10-year yield had reached 0.96. Two other data points Wednesday cut against any near-term easing: August retail sales rose 1.2 percent against a 0.8 percent forecast, per InvestingLive, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for the third quarter jumped to 5.1 percent from 4.4 percent.

Mortgage applications: down 4.1 percent, purchase demand 19 percent below a year ago

The MBA's survey for the week ending September 11, released Wednesday, had total applications down 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis (down 15 percent unadjusted, with a Labor Day adjustment), the steepest weekly drop since July, per HousingWire. The refinance index fell 9 percent on the week and was 65 percent below a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 1 percent; the unadjusted purchase index was 19 percent below the same week a year ago. The refinance share fell to 39.4 percent from 40.9. Joel Kan, MBA's deputy chief economist, said higher rates "caused many buyers to pause their purchase decisions" and eliminated much of the refinance benefit for conventional, FHA and VA borrowers. Xactus's Mortgage Intent Index, built from credit-pull activity, fell 14.8 percent on the week and was down roughly 30 percent from the comparable non-holiday week a year ago.

Builders: NAHB index at 32, a 12-month low, 38 percent cutting prices

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for September, released Wednesday, fell three points to 32, below the 34 consensus and the lowest reading in 12 months. Current sales conditions fell four points to 35, six-month sales expectations fell six points to 37, and buyer traffic held at 23. The share of builders cutting prices rose to 38 percent from 35 percent in August, with the average cut at 6 percent for a sixth straight month; 66 percent reported using incentives, up from 63 percent and the highest since December's 67 percent. NAHB attributed the drop to rising mortgage rates, higher material costs, rising gas and diesel prices and labor shortages. A caution on sourcing: a search for "NAHB September" also returns the September 2025 release, which happened to read 32 as well; the figures above are from NAHB's Eye on Housing post dated September 2026.

August housing starts and permits from the Census Bureau are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Thursday and had not posted when this brief was written. The Census PDF that surfaces at the "August" URL is the August 2025 release (starts 1,307,000), and we dropped it as misdated; July 2026 starts were 1,239,000, down 12.4 percent on the month, per the August 18 release.

Lennar: East region orders down 17 percent, full-year delivery target cut

Lennar reported fiscal third-quarter results after the close Wednesday: net earnings of $284 million, or $1.19 a share ($1.23 excluding one-time items), against $2.29 a year earlier and a $1.30 consensus, on revenue of $8.0 billion. Deliveries fell 3 percent to 20,840 homes, new orders fell 9 percent to 20,879, gross margin on home sales was 15.8 percent (17.5 percent a year ago), and the average sales price was $372,000 with roughly 12 percent in incentives. Stuart Miller said the environment "has deteriorated since our last earnings call," that the 30-year rate was about 6.8 percent at quarter end "and even higher since," and that consumer confidence had declined. Lennar cut its full-year 2026 delivery target to 80,000 to 81,000 homes from 82,000 to 83,000, and guided fourth-quarter orders to 19,500 to 20,500 with gross margin of 15.5 to 16.0 percent.

The Florida read is in the East segment, which Lennar defines as Florida, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. East deliveries rose to 5,017 from 4,905 at an average price of $372,000 (up from $366,000), but East new orders fell to 4,831 from 5,792, a decline of about 17 percent, the steepest of any region, across 344 active communities (360 a year ago). The East order average price rose to $373,000 from $359,000. Completed unsold inventory companywide fell to 1.8 homes per community from 2.1. The earnings call is at 11:00 a.m. Thursday; any Florida-specific commentary from it will be in Friday's brief.

Florida Realtors: August sales down 1.5 percent, inventory down 13 percent, median $415,000

Florida Realtors published its August statewide report Wednesday, and it supersedes the Redfin state figures we carried this week. Single-family closed sales were 21,497, down 1.4 percent from August 2025; condo and townhouse closed sales were 7,291, down 1.8 percent. The single-family median sale price was $415,000, up 1.2 percent and the sixth straight year-over-year gain; the condo and townhouse median was just under $298,000, up 2.8 percent. Single-family inventory fell 13 percent from a year earlier and is now below its level two years ago; condo and townhouse inventory fell 11.5 percent. New pending single-family sales declined, ending a 12-month run of year-over-year gains, while new pending condo and townhouse sales rose slightly for a 13th straight month. Chief Economist Brad O'Connor said the market looks like one "settling into a steadier pace" and that "on the margin, the recent rise in rates has been enough to slow home sales growth." Note the divergence from Redfin's August read (30,212 homes sold, up 1.3 percent; median $383,403): the two count different things and Florida Realtors' MLS-based series is the one we treat as primary for the state.

Florida insurance: Citizens at 270,000 policies per one count, 336,000 per another

Insurance Business reported September 4 that Citizens Property Insurance had sent 45,000 non-renewal notices as part of its depopulation program and that its policy count "now stands at approximately 270,000," down from a peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023. Our September 15 and 16 briefs carried roughly 336,000 from Citizens' 2026 rate kit. Both figures are attributed and dated; the rate kit is older and the trade-press number is newer and unsourced beyond a Citizens spokesperson, so we carry both until Citizens publishes a dated count. The same report cited the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation's statewide average homeowner premium of $3,815 including wind, based on April data, and the Insurance Information Institute's finding that average premiums fell in 51 of 67 counties in the first half of 2026. Florida law requires a Citizens policyholder to accept a private offer priced within 20 percent of the Citizens premium; a Citizens spokesperson acknowledged private premiums are often higher. Nothing new on condo-reserve enforcement carried a September 16 or 17 date.

What this means for Northeast Florida

The number a Jacksonville buyer is quoted did not move much on Fed day, up 2 basis points to 7.24 percent, but the direction of the next few months got clearer: the Fed's own median has one more hike this year, the 2-year is at 4.7 percent, and the largest builder in the state just said Florida-region orders fell 17 percent while it carries 12 percent incentives. That is the trade-off in front of anyone shopping new construction here: rate buydowns and price cuts from builders are widening while resale inventory, per Florida Realtors, is tightening statewide. Our own realMLS series still lists <a href="/blog/jacksonville-zip-codes-under-300k">17 ZIP codes with a median resale price under $300,000</a>, and the <a href="/news/florida/florida-buyers-market-august-2026/">August buyer's-market piece</a> covers the concession data. Friday's brief will carry the Freddie Mac print, housing starts and the Lennar call.

What we are not saying

We are not forecasting the next Fed move or the bond market's path; we report the committee's median and two published readings of its dot plot. Freddie Mac, housing starts and Lennar's call were genuinely not out when this brief was written Thursday morning and are listed as pending rather than guessed. Two figures conflict across sources and both are carried: the dot-plot count (16 of 18 per CNBC, 12 of 18 per Redfin) and Citizens' policy count (270,000 per Insurance Business, 336,000 per the rate kit). Every figure carries its source and date, and the weekly and monthly series (MBA, NAHB, Florida Realtors, Lennar's quarter) lag the daily indexes.

People also ask

What did the Fed do on September 16, 2026?

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on a 12 to 0 vote, the first increase since July 2023. The median projection has the rate at 4.1 percent at the end of 2026, implying one more quarter-point hike this year, per the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections released the same day.

What is the mortgage rate on September 17, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed September 16 at 7.24 percent, a seventh straight daily increase and the highest since January 13, 2025. HousingWire's locked-rate figure was 7.28 percent Thursday morning, and the MBA's weekly contract rate for the week ending September 11 was 6.97 percent. Freddie Mac's weekly survey updates at noon Thursday.

Why did mortgage rates go up after the Fed hike?

Per Mortgage News Daily, the hike itself was priced in and bonds barely moved at 2:00 p.m.; yields rose after Chair Warsh's 2:30 press conference, in which he said the economy was strong, inflation had not made real progress, and the Fed needed to "remove some accommodation," which markets read as a signal of more hikes. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, which closed at about 5.02 percent.

Sources

• Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
• Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm
• Federal Reserve, September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting page (press conference): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260916.htm
• Mortgage News Daily, "No, The Fed Didn't Hike Mortgage Rates Today", September 16, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09162026
• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index and Treasury table (September 16 close; September 17, 5:18 a.m. pricing): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, daily newsletter, September 16, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260916
• CNBC, "Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%", September 16, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
• Redfin, "Mortgage Rates Are Likely to Stay High as Fed Hikes Rates and Signals More to Come", Chen Zhao, September 16, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/mortgage-rates-september-fed-meeting-2026/
• Real Estate News, "Path to lower mortgage rates 'highly uncertain' after Fed hike", September 16, 2026: https://www.realestatenews.com/2026/09/16/path-to-lower-mortgage-rates-highly-uncertain-after-fed-hike
• HousingWire, "Fed hikes rates, with analysts seeing more tightening ahead", September 16, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fed-rate-hike-inflation-geopolitics-housing-impact/
• InvestingLive, "FOMC rate decision: Fed hikes for the first time in three years", September 16, 2026: https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fomc-rate-decision-fed-hikes-for-the-first-time-in-three-years/
• HousingWire, "Mortgage applications dip 4% as rates climb near 7%" (MBA week ending September 11), September 16, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-applications-fall-rates-2/
• NAHB Eye on Housing, "Builder Sentiment Falls on Higher Interest Rates and Costs", September 16, 2026: https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/09/builder-sentiment-falls-on-higher-interest-rates-and-costs/
• Lennar, "Lennar Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results", September 16, 2026: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lennar-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-302881102.html
• Florida Realtors, "Florida housing market levels off in August", September 16, 2026: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/florida-housing-market-levels-august
• Insurance Business, "Citizens cuts policy count to 270,000 amid non-renewal push", September 4, 2026: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/citizens-cuts-policy-count-to-270000-amid-nonrenewal-push-588731.aspx
• Citizens Property Insurance, 2026 rate kit: https://www.citizensfla.com/documents/20702/35182283/2026+Rate+Kit.pdf/a9199889-6745-3479-f061-6a6983f3d373?t=1765383355156
• CNBC, "Oil prices today: WTI, Brent, Middle East", September 17, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-hormuz-iran-war.html
• CNBC, oil and Treasury yield correlation, September 15, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/oil-us-treasurys-stocks-pressure.html
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 10, 2026 (next release September 17): https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
• U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, July 2026 (August 18, 2026; August release scheduled September 17): https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.