Data Analysis

Zillow's August market report put Orlando home values down 1.4 percent from a year earlier while its sales count rose 5.8 percent, the widest split of any large Florida metro.

Typical home values were flat or falling in three of Florida's four largest metros in August while the national index rose 1.3 percent. Sales counts moved the other way in Orlando and Tampa, the two metros where values fell furthest.

Zillow published its August market report on September 8, and the Florida rows run against the national one. Orlando's typical home value fell 1.4 percent from a year earlier while its sales count rose 5.8 percent. Tampa's value fell 0.6 percent with sales up 2.7 percent. Miami's value rose 0.5 percent with sales down 1.0 percent, and Jacksonville's was unchanged at 0.0 percent with sales down 1.0 percent. Nationally the typical home value rose 1.3 percent to $369,678 while the sales count fell 0.6 percent. Rents rose 2.5 percent nationally to $1,948.

The pattern inside Florida is the interesting part. The two metros where values fell hardest are the two where sales grew.

What did Zillow's August report say about Florida home values?

The Zillow Home Value Index is a modeled estimate of the typical home value in an area rather than an average of what sold, which is why it can move differently from a median sale price.

By that measure, Miami's typical home value was $477,919 in August, up 0.2 percent for the month and 0.5 percent for the year. Orlando's was $383,656, down 0.2 percent for the month and 1.4 percent for the year, the weakest of the four. Tampa's was $359,285, down 0.1 percent for the month and 0.6 percent for the year. Jacksonville's was $351,487, down 0.1 percent for the month and flat at 0.0 percent for the year.

The national index was $369,678, down 0.1 percent from July and up 1.3 percent from August 2025. Three of the four Florida metros sit below that national growth rate, and two of them are below it in absolute direction as well.

Miami is the outlier in level, not just in direction. At $477,919 its typical home value is about 29 percent above the national figure, while Jacksonville at $351,487 is about 5 percent below it.

Why are sales rising in the metros where values fell?

Zillow's sales count nowcast, an estimate of completed sales, rose 5.8 percent from a year earlier in Orlando and 2.7 percent in Tampa. Miami and Jacksonville each fell 1.0 percent. The national count fell 0.6 percent.

Line those up against the value column and the split is clean. Orlando and Tampa are the two Florida metros where the typical value fell, and they are the only two where sales grew. Miami and Jacksonville held their values roughly flat and lost sales.

That is the shape a market takes when price adjustment is doing the clearing work. It is not proof of causation, and one month of a nowcast is thin evidence for anything. It is worth watching whether the pattern repeats in the September report.

Mischa Fisher, Zillow's chief economist, put the national slowdown on borrowing costs. "The for-sale housing market took a step back in August, and mortgage rates above 6.5% are the primary culprit," he said. "The combination of weak sales and even weaker pending sales points to a soft close to 2026. There are more homes for sale than a year ago, which is good news for buyers who are ready to move, but until rates ease, many households will likely stay on the sidelines a little longer as renting is still the more affordable substitute."

The national demand numbers behind that read: newly pending listings, which Zillow calls a forward-looking measure of demand, fell 2.6 percent from a year ago. New for-sale listings totaled 356,934 in August, up 2.4 percent from a year earlier but down 7.9 percent from July. Homes took a median of 27 days to go pending, the same as last year and two days longer than July. The share of listings with a price cut edged up to 26.3 percent.

What is happening to Florida rents?

Rent growth in Florida is running well below the national pace, and in one metro it has stopped.

The typical asking rent in Tampa was $2,001 in August, down 0.1 percent from a year earlier, the only decline among the four. Orlando was $1,942, up 0.7 percent. Miami was $2,666, up 1.6 percent. Jacksonville was $1,696, up 1.8 percent. The national typical rent was $1,948, up 2.5 percent.

Every Florida metro in the report is below the national rent growth rate. Miami's rent is the outlier in dollars, about 37 percent above the national figure, which matters for anyone weighing renting against buying there. Fisher's point that renting remains the more affordable substitute lands differently in a market where the typical rent is $2,666.

How does this line up with the other August housing data?

This is the second August reading published in a week, and the two use different measurements.

Realtor.com's August report, covered separately in our analysis of its metro tables, measures asking prices on active listings and found them down in all four Florida metros, from 1.9 percent in Orlando to 6.0 percent in Tampa. Zillow measures the estimated value of the whole housing stock, and its declines are much smaller. Both point the same direction for Florida, at different magnitudes, because they are counting different things.

Florida Realtors, which reports closed sales from the state's MLSs, measured a July statewide median single-family sale price of $425,000, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier. That series is still rising. Anyone tracking Florida prices should keep these three apart rather than treating one as a check on another.

For buyers and sellers working a specific market, the local hub pages carry the market-level detail: Orlando, Tampa, Miami and Jacksonville.

Limitations

The Zillow Home Value Index is a modeled measure of typical home value across a housing stock, not a record of transaction prices, and it is smoothed and revised. The sales count nowcast is an estimate of completed sales published before full county records are available, and it is revised as data arrives. Zillow's metro areas are wider than the cities they are named for, so the Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville figures describe metropolitan areas.

One inconsistency inside the release itself should be flagged. The text states that there were 1.41 million homes for sale nationwide in August and that active inventory was 3 percent higher than a year earlier, while the accompanying data table shows the United States inventory change at 0.2 percent year over year. Because the two disagree on the national figure, this article uses the stated text for the national count and does not report the table's metro inventory column at all. The release page carries no methodology or notes section explaining the difference.

Rent figures are Zillow Observed Rent Index values for asking rents on new leases, which is a different thing from what existing tenants pay. Nothing here is a forecast.

Sources

Zillow, "Zillow's August Market Report shows elevated rates dampen home sales," published September 8, 2026, including the national narrative figures and the metro data table. Realtor.com August 2026 Housing Report, published September 2, 2026, for the asking-price comparison. Florida Realtors, July 2026 statewide single-family housing statistics, released August 17, 2026. Chart by Momentum Research from the Zillow August 2026 metro table.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.