LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES
Homes for Sale in Key Largo, FL
True comps, carrying-cost math, and listings before the portals.
Market Heat
Lake Surprise Properties sits in Key Largo, Monroe County — the Florida Keys, where land is finite, water access defines value, and replacement cost is high. The median price of $1,137,500 reflects all of that at once: a premium market where the location does most of the pricing work regardless of what the house itself looks like. With a median living area of roughly 1,256 square feet, buyers are paying for the site and the access, not square footage.
The current market posture demands patience. A median days-on-market of 112.5 — nearly four months — signals that buyers are selective and that mispriced or poorly presented listings sit. The market heat score of 38 confirms this is a buyer-favoring environment right now. Sellers who anchor to the 42% year-over-year price movement will need to reconcile that figure against actual absorption; this is not a market where listings move on momentum alone.
LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES right now
🟢 Still climbing. The trailing-12-month median ($1.14M) is up 42.2% from the prior 12 months ($800K) and up 258% since 2012. With about a dozen sales a year, a single closing can swing this number, so read the level and the decade, not one year's move.Momentum Research, record-level floridakeys closed sales, 12-month windows ending July 27. Confidence: Medium (10 and 9 sales in the two windows).
Jump to: Price history & scorecard · Homes for sale · Schools · FAQ
Updated July 27, 2026 · Live data: floridakeys, refreshed twice daily · MLS facts carry their source; interpretation lines are Momentum Research · Data sources & freshness
The 60-Second Overview
LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES market snapshot (as of July 27, 2026): the median sale price is about $1.14M, and a median 113 days on market for closed sales. The trailing-12-month median is up 42% from the prior 12 months and up 258% since 2012, computed from record-level floridakeys closed sales (10 closings in the current window).
LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES is a community of 355 homes in Key Largo, Monroe County, built between 1947 and 2024 (median 1988.0), with a median living area of about 1,256 square feet. 27% of parcels are homesteaded, the owner-occupancy proxy in the Florida DOR assessment roll (2025 roll, public records).
Lake Surprise Properties is a 355-home Keys community spanning construction from 1947 through 2024, with a median build year of 1988 — a mix that produces real spread in condition, finish, and storm-hardening, all of which drive meaningful price variation around the median.
Who LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES is best for.
Best for
- Cash or well-capitalized buyers targeting a Keys vacation property with a realistic multi-year hold and no reliance on short-term price gains.
- Buyers focused on site and water access who understand that median price here buys roughly 1,256 square feet and are pricing accordingly — not expecting mainland square-footage value.
- Investors who have modeled Monroe County carrying costs — insurance, flood, HOA if applicable — and can absorb a 100-plus-day time-to-close if they need to exit.
Probably not for
- Buyers with a tight timeline who cannot tolerate a negotiation process that routinely runs beyond three months in this market.
- Buyers expecting a turnkey, amenity-rich community environment — no community amenities are identified in current MLS data.
- Buyers whose purchase math depends on continued steep appreciation; the historical run-up is not a guarantee of future performance, and current absorption is slow.
Price History: What Homes Here Have Actually Sold For
Median sale price over the trailing 12 months ending July 27 of each year, from record-level floridakeys closed sales. Same methodology as every appreciation figure on this page: the 2026 point ($1.14M) IS the median in the snapshot above, and the move from 2025 ($800K) IS the +42.2% one-year change.
Windows contain 3 to 20 sales each (10 in the current window); every figure carries its sample size, and thin markets swing on single closings. Listing data provided by Florida Keys MLS, Inc. Information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
The real cost & risk here
Before the list price, the Florida math the portals skip. These are Monroe County typicals — your exact home, flood zone, and insurance quote will vary, so verify each before you offer.
Check it for your address: look up your flood zone (FEMA) · insurance by county · true-cost calculator · Monroe County scorecard.
County typicals from Momentum’s Florida housing data (Zillow & Realtor.com aggregates, Census, FRED), updated monthly; insurance modeled. Flood zone is property-specific — always confirm via FEMA.
The LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES buying strategy.
If we were buying in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES today, this is the order of operations we would run for our clients.
Underwrite the condition first. Price the roof, HVAC, and systems honestly before judging any list price; condition swings value here more than square footage alone.
Match the home to real comps. Recent sales of similar condition and lot, not the asking price, tell you what a home is worth.
Move deliberately, not desperately. Neither side has a decisive edge, so a well-prepared, fairly-priced offer wins without overpaying.
Line up financing and inspection early. A pre-approval and an inspection plan let you act fast and negotiate from evidence.
Keep an agent in your corner. The listing agent works for the seller; we represent you and prepare a hand-built valuation before any offer in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES.
What the numbers actually tell you
The 27% homestead rate is the most telling structural fact here: roughly three-quarters of the homes are not primary residences. That points to a market dominated by investment, vacation, and rental-use buyers — which shapes everything from negotiating posture to listing motivation. When a seller is managing a second property from the mainland, the decision to cut price or wait looks different than it does for someone who needs to move.
The 258% price appreciation since 2012 is a historical data point, not a forecast — and it reflects the Keys broadly as much as this community specifically. What it does confirm is that this market has absorbed major appreciation cycles. New buyers should underwrite on current fundamentals: insurance costs in Monroe County, flood zone exposure, and carrying costs in a slow-absorption environment. With no identified community amenities in the current MLS data, value here is almost entirely driven by the Keys location itself, lot characteristics, and individual home condition.
The location and the amenities are priced into every listing in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES. The deal is won or lost on condition, the comps, and the renovation math.
Momentum Buy Score.
Our proprietary 0 to 10 read across the factors that decide how a home in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES buys, holds, and resells. Momentum Research; not an appraisal.
Momentum Intelligence Scores are our proprietary, qualitative assessment on a 0 to 10 scale, built from the record-level market data on this page. They are a framework for comparing communities, not a guarantee of future value and not advice on a specific home; unlike an automated value estimate they do not price your home, they grade the community on evidence you can inspect. Composite is the plain average of the 4 factors (6.3). Basis: Long-Term Appreciation +258% since 2012; Recent Direction +42.2% year-over-year; Owner Commitment 27% owner-occupied; Pricing Power 89.0% sale-to-list. Refreshed with each data update.
Why work with Momentum here
A 112-day median DOM in a premium, low-inventory Keys market means the difference between a closed deal and a failed contract often comes down to underwriting judgment and negotiation read. Momentum's Northeast Florida brokerage network extends into Monroe County markets where patience and local contract knowledge matter as much as enthusiasm. We will tell you when the ask does not match the fundamentals — and in Lake Surprise Properties right now, that conversation is often necessary.
LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES in 15 seconds.
HOA, CDD & Fees
- Mandatory HOA — confirm current dues
- Any club/amenity membership is billed separately
Confirm the current HOA dues, exactly what they cover, and any CDD bond or special assessment for a specific address before you offer.
Tools for a LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES buy.
Free calculators to pressure-test the real cost before you tour.
Selling here is won on condition and pricing to real comps, not an automated estimate. The right number comes from closed LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES sales matched to your home.
Price it to the comps and condition, not an automated estimate.
If you are thinking about selling in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES, the right list price comes from recent comparable sales matched to your home's condition and location, not an automated estimate.
What is your LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES home worth?
Get a no-obligation home value based on real comparable sales in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES, not an automated guess. Tell us about your home and we will personally prepare your numbers and a pricing strategy. No obligation, no spam.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES?
How long do homes in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES take to sell?
How many homes are in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES?
What share of LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES is owner-occupied?
When were the homes in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES built?
Do cash buyers compete in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES?
Have LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES home prices gone up?
Who is the best real estate agent for LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES?
How do I find a top Key Largo real estate agent who knows LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES?
Can Momentum Realty connect me with an agent for LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES?
Should you buy in LAKE SURPRISE PROPERTIES?
An honest fit check. We will tell you when it is not your community.
Data sources & freshness
| Community market stats | floridakeys closed sales, 12-month windows ending July 27, 2026 |
| Housing stock & ownership | Florida DOR 2025 assessment roll (street-list match (11 streets, ZIP 33037)) |
| Historical depth | Closed-sale records back to 2009 (148 transactions analyzed) |
Verify the primary sources yourself: Florida DOR · U.S. Census · FEMA flood maps · Citizens Property Insurance.
Momentum Research figures are our own analysis of floridakeys records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Methodology: how Momentum market scores are computed. Market metrics describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
Own a home here?
You just read the data. Now see what your home is worth.
The numbers on this page move markets in the aggregate. The number that matters to you is what a buyer pays for your address. Momentum sells for 1.25% above the floridakeys member average and 8 days faster, and we’ll price yours against live your area comps.
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More Key Largo & The Florida Keys & Monroe County guides
Compare before you commit - every guide covers pricing, HOA/CDD, insurance posture, and fit. Browse all of The Florida Keys & Monroe County or the full Neighborhood Finder.