Data Analysis

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 point to 89.4 in August 2026, with the Expectations Index dropping 5.8 points to 68.2 while consumers' read on current conditions improved.

July was revised to 90.2. The Present Situation Index rose 6.8 points to 121.2, the widest recent split between how consumers see today and how they see the next six months.

The Conference Board reported on August 25, 2026 that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 point to 89.4 in August, from an upwardly revised 90.2 in July. The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers assess current business and labor market conditions, rose 6.8 points to 121.2. The Expectations Index, which measures their six month outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell 5.8 points to 68.2. Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson said consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month.

What did the August consumer confidence report show?

The headline decline was small. The split underneath it was not.

Consumers' assessment of the present improved substantially in August, with the Present Situation Index gaining 6.8 points to 121.2. At the same time their expectations for the next six months deteriorated by almost the same amount, with the Expectations Index losing 5.8 points to 68.2. The two components moved in opposite directions by a combined twelve and a half points, and the headline barely moved because the index weights them together.

An Expectations Index of 68.2 sits well below 80, the level The Conference Board has repeatedly described in its releases as the threshold that typically signals a recession ahead. Consumers are saying that today feels tolerable and that they do not trust the next six months. That is the second consecutive monthly decline in the headline index, following July's slip to 90.2.

How does 89.4 compare with recent years?

The index has spent 2026 in a narrow, low band. The Conference Board's own releases put the index at 114.8 in January 2024, still above 109 as late as December 2024, then falling through early 2025 to a low of 85.7 in April 2025. It recovered into the high 90s by mid 2025, at 97.4 in August 2025, then declined through the fall to 94.2 in December, its fifth consecutive monthly decline to close that year.

In 2026 the index dropped sharply in January and has since held between roughly 89 and 94: a revised 89.0 in January, 91.0 in February, 91.8 in March, 93.8 in April, 93.1 in May, then 90.2 in July and 89.4 in August. One measurement note belongs with that record: the January 2026 figure was initially published at 84.5 and later revised up 4.5 points to 89.0, a far larger revision than the one or two tenths typical of this series, and The Conference Board published no explanation for it.

The pattern that emerges is a consumer mood that stepped down hard in early 2025, never recovered its 2024 levels, and has spent 2026 drifting sideways at a level roughly 25 points below where it started 2024.

Why does consumer confidence matter for Florida housing?

A home is the largest discretionary purchase most households ever make, and it is bought on expectations: about job security, about income growth, about whether prices and rates will be better or worse next year. The Expectations Index is the component that speaks to that decision, and it is the component that fell.

When expectations sit this far below the recession-signal threshold, the practical effect on housing is hesitation. Households that could buy wait, trade down or widen their search to cheaper metros. That behavior is already visible in Florida's market data: rising inventory, longer marketing times and buyers negotiating harder in most of the state's metros, conditions tracked daily on the Florida Housing Intelligence hubs.

The improvement in the Present Situation Index cuts the other way and is worth taking seriously. Consumers rate current business and labor conditions substantially better than they did in July, which is consistent with an economy that is slowing rather than contracting. The same week's GDP release showed output still growing at a 1.5 percent annual rate. Confidence data describe a cautious consumer, not a retrenching one.

For Florida specifically, national confidence matters because the state's housing demand imports it. Out-of-state buyers deciding whether to relocate, retire early or buy a second home are making exactly the kind of expectations-driven decision this survey measures. A national consumer who distrusts the next six months is a Florida buyer who postpones.

What this report does not tell you

The Conference Board's public release reports national figures. It does not publish a Florida breakdown, so nothing in this report measures Florida consumers directly.

Confidence surveys also measure sentiment, not behavior. Households routinely report pessimism while continuing to spend, and the gap between stated confidence and actual consumption has been wide in recent years. The survey is a leading indicator of willingness, not a count of transactions.

Limitations

The Consumer Confidence Index is produced by The Conference Board from a monthly survey, indexed to 1985 = 100, and monthly values are revised in the following release. The historical figures cited here are compiled from The Conference Board's own published releases and release summaries; the January 2026 value carries the unusually large upward revision noted above. The Conference Board's full historical dataset is licensed, and this article cites only values the organization has published publicly. No other survey's data appears in this article; the University of Michigan sentiment index is a different measure and is not comparable point for point.

Sources

The Conference Board, "US Consumer Confidence Edged Down Slightly in August," released August 25, 2026. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

The Conference Board, monthly Consumer Confidence Index releases and release summaries, 2024 through 2026, for the historical values cited. https://www.conference-board.org/press/pressarchive/

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, "Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026," released August 26, 2026, cited for the growth context. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter-2026

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.