Market Brief

Mortgage rates jumped to 7.26 percent, matching the highest level since May 2024, after a hot business-activity survey pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.1 percent and October rate-hike odds past 70 percent.

MND 30-year 7.26%, tied for highest since May 2024, as the 10-year topped 5.1%. MBA rate 7.12%, applications down 1.5%. October hike odds 71 to 77%.

The Thursday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs. Yesterday's September 23 brief had the daily index at 7.17 percent, the lowest in a week, and KB Home's Southeast orders down 24 percent; one session later that easing is gone. This brief covers Wednesday's rate jump and what caused it, the MBA weekly survey that was not out when yesterday's brief was written, Governor Barr's housing speech, the October odds, oil, Florida homeowners insurance rate cuts approved this week, the national inventory read, and what is scheduled for today.

Mortgage rates: 7.26 percent, tied for the highest since May 2024

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Wednesday, September 23, at 7.26 percent, up 9 basis points in one day and 89 basis points above a year earlier. MND's Matthew Graham wrote that the level "matches the high seen in early 2025" and that you would have to go back to May 1, 2024 to see anything higher. The 52-week range on MND's table is now 5.99 to 7.26 percent, so Wednesday set the top of it. The 15-year rose 4 basis points to 6.87 percent, jumbo 7.40 percent, FHA 6.87 percent, VA 6.89 percent and the 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.76 percent. MND's Thursday rate-trend indicator read minimal positive at the time of writing, with MBS prices "increased slightly."

On a $320,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.26 percent comes to about $2,185 a month, against about $2,118 at Freddie Mac's latest weekly 6.95 percent and about $1,917 at MND's 52-week low of 5.99 percent, a difference of roughly $269 a month from the low. That is our arithmetic on a standard 30-year amortization, before taxes, insurance and HOA dues.

Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average for a 30-year conforming loan was 7.111 percent Thursday, up from 7.047 percent Wednesday and 6 basis points higher than a week earlier; the 15-year was 6.342 percent, jumbo 7.282 percent, FHA 6.510 percent and VA 6.583 percent. Fortune says it reviewed MRC data available on September 23, so that figure may not fully reflect Wednesday afternoon's move. Freddie Mac's weekly survey still reads 6.95 percent for September 17; the September 24 release is due at noon today and was not out when this was written. A Forbes Advisor "7.11 percent" average for today appeared in search results labeled near Freddie Mac; it is a separate marketplace average, not the PMMS, and we do not treat it as the Freddie Mac number.

What moved rates: the PMI surprise and a 10-year above 5.1 percent

Wednesday's move came from economic data, not housing data. S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI for September rose to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, the strongest private-sector expansion since July 2021 per S&P Global as reported by Trading Economics, with the services flash at 58.7 against a 56.0 forecast, per InvestingLive. The same survey showed input costs rising at the sharpest pace since October 2022. MND called the result "tail risk" territory for the rate market.

The 10-year Treasury yield read 5.117 percent on MND's table at the September 23 close, up from 4.942 percent on Tuesday, and MND's page showed 5.126 percent Thursday morning. Other sources give different Wednesday numbers, and we carry them rather than choose. A CNN summary we read only in search results put the move at 15 basis points to 5.11 percent, with an intraday high of 5.13 percent, the highest since 2007. Invezz, writing Thursday morning, said the 10-year rose 7 basis points to 5.058 percent, "a level not seen since July 2007," and put the 30-year at 5.347 percent and the 2-year at 4.464 percent. The differences are consistent with different time stamps and data vendors; all of them place the 10-year at or above 5 percent and at the highest level in about 19 years. Yesterday's brief had the 10-year at 4.942 percent.

Oil added to it. Trading Economics' daily series had Brent at $103.08 on September 23, a gain of about 3.9 percent that ended five straight declines, and at about $105 Thursday morning, after remarks by a military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader and Iranian President Pezeshkian's statement at the UN that Iran would restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while U.S. sanctions and a blockade remain. Yesterday's brief carried Tuesday's $98.47 Brent. Brent is up about 20 percent over the past month and about 53 percent on the year on Trading Economics' figures.

MBA: 7.12 percent contract rate, applications down 1.5 percent

The Mortgage Bankers Association's survey for the week ending September 18, released Wednesday, had the average 30-year fixed contract rate on conforming loans at 7.12 percent, up 15 basis points from 6.97 percent and the highest since May 2024. The composite index fell 1.5 percent seasonally adjusted, following a 4.1 percent drop the prior week. The seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 1 percent and the unadjusted purchase index was 11 percent below the same week a year earlier; the refinance index fell 3 percent and was 62 percent below a year earlier, the slowest refinance pace since February 2025, per MBA chief economist Mike Fratantoni.

The ARM share rose to 9.8 percent of applications, up from 8.4 percent the prior week according to a search summary of the week's coverage; Fratantoni said 5/1 ARM rates were more than a percentage point below fixed rates. MBA's 5/1 ARM average fell 13 basis points to 6.10 percent, the only product that declined. FHA's share of applications was 16.7 percent and VA's 12 percent; the FHA contract rate was 6.78 percent and the jumbo rate 7.15 percent. Our September ARM article covers how the ARM structures reset. The MBA week ended before Wednesday's jump, so next Wednesday's survey is the first to capture it.

The Fed: Barr says more adjustments likely, October odds above 70 percent

Governor Michael Barr spoke Wednesday at the Chicago Fed's Housing Affordability 2026 summit. In prepared remarks he said he supported last week's increase and that "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed" to bring inflation to target in a timely fashion. On housing he cited a housing affordability index that fell to 68 in July 2026, the lowest in 21 years, where 100 marks the affordability threshold, and said real median household income rose roughly 17 percent from 2000 to 2024 while real house prices rose about 70 percent. He noted that about half of renters pay 30 percent or more of income on rent.

New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday in London that it would be "reasonable" to expect another hike by year-end but did not commit to October, per Invezz, and said explicit forward guidance is over. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Wednesday there is an increased likelihood inflation stays notably above 2 percent.

Market pricing moved sharply. Quartz, on Wednesday afternoon, put the chance of an October 27 to 28 hike at 71 percent; Invezz, citing CME FedWatch Thursday morning, put it at 77.5 percent, "up sharply from around 53% just days earlier." Our briefs carried a 59.7 percent FedWatch mirror reading for September 20 and September 22, and three tracker readings between 53 and 60 percent on September 22; the 53 percent that Invezz cites sits at the low end of that spread. Search summaries also showed a 73 percent reading without a time stamp, which we do not carry as a figure. The next CPI report is October 14; PCE inflation is September 30 and the September jobs report is October 2.

Florida insurance: four homeowners rate cuts approved, Citizens at 266,231

Florida Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky announced Tuesday that the Office of Insurance Regulation approved four homeowners rate decreases averaging 7 percent across about 62,000 policies at renewal, per Insurance Journal on September 23: One Alliance North America (formerly Universal North America) down 10.4 percent on 17,148 policies, Vyrd down 10.4 percent on 26,751, Safe Harbor down 4.1 percent on 10,501 and Unique down 3.2 percent on 8,266. Yaworsky said OIR is receiving "a flood of rate decrease requests" ranging from 0.3 to 19.7 percent and that the current 30-day average requested homeowners change is a 4.8 percent decrease, against a 5.2 percent average increase in 2021 and a 15 percent average approved increase in July 2022. Kin has announced planned decreases of as much as 20 percent in three South Florida counties.

At Citizens' board meeting Wednesday, officials reported the policy count at 266,231 in August, down from 1.4 million in 2023, with total insured value expected at $85 billion this year against $553 billion in 2023. Our September 22 brief carried Citizens' own June 23 figure of about 274,000 and Insurance Business' September 4 figure of about 270,000; the August number continues the same decline. CEO Tim Cerio urged policyholders to shop their coverage even when a renewal is flat. A Morningstar DBRS report released Wednesday said market conditions have "improved considerably" over two years but that a major hurricane would be the real test of the private market.

Inventory: national listings rising again, Florida supply still falling

Altos Research data, reported by Calculated Risk on September 23, had national active single-family inventory up 3.2 percent from the same week in 2025 as of September 18, from 1.5 percent the week before, and 6.7 percent below 2019; the 7-day median list price was down 1 percent on the year. Calculated Risk wrote that inventory "appears to be picking up a little with higher mortgage rates." Florida Realtors' August statewide report said single-family and condo supply both fell by double digits from a year earlier, with condo and townhouse inventory down 11.5 percent. Those describe different geographies and months, national weekly listings in September versus Florida monthly MLS supply in August, so we carry both rather than choose. Yesterday's brief carried KB Home's view that resale inventory is at a decade high; Altos' 2019 comparison says national inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Today: new-home sales at 10, Freddie Mac at noon

Census Bureau August new-home sales are due at 10:00 a.m. Eastern; a consensus figure we saw only in a search summary is 615,000 annualized against July's 607,000 (our July new-home sales article has the detail). Freddie Mac's PMMS for September 24 is due at noon and should reflect the week's higher rates; last week's 6.95 percent was up 19 basis points. The Fed's Senior Credit Officer survey is at 2:00 p.m. Friday brings durable goods and the final September University of Michigan sentiment reading. NAR's August existing-home sales were released September 10 (3.98 million annualized, down 2.0 percent) and are not on this week's calendar.

What this means for Northeast Florida

The rate a First Coast buyer is quoted moved more on Wednesday than in the previous week combined, and it moved on a business survey and oil, neither of which is about housing. At 7.26 percent on the daily index, a $320,000 loan costs about $67 a month more in principal and interest than at last week's Freddie Mac average. Two items point the other way on total monthly cost: Florida homeowners insurance filings now average a requested decrease, and four carriers have approved cuts averaging 7 percent. Anyone holding a rate lock or comparing a fixed loan with an ARM has a wider spread to weigh than a week ago, and MBA's data show more applicants choosing ARMs. The 2026 Jacksonville market page, the Jacksonville data hub and the Jacksonville August median price page carry the running local series.

What we are not saying

We are not calling the October decision; we carry the 71 and 77.5 percent readings and note that they come from different times of day. We carry three different Wednesday 10-year figures because the sources used different time stamps. The Fortune MRC figure reflects data available September 23 and may lag Wednesday's move. The Freddie Mac and new-home sales releases due today are not in this brief. The Barr affordability index figure is from his prepared remarks, which cite an outside monitor; we have not seen the underlying series. The insurance rate cuts apply to specific carriers' policies at renewal, not to every Florida policy. Every figure carries its source and date; weekly and monthly series lag the daily indexes.

People also ask

What is the mortgage rate on September 24, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index was 7.26 percent at the September 23 close, up 9 basis points and tied for the highest since May 2024. Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average was 7.111 percent Thursday. MBA's contract rate was 7.12 percent for the week ending September 18, and Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 6.95 percent for September 17, with a new release due at noon.

Why did mortgage rates go up on September 23, 2026?

S&P Global's flash September composite PMI rose to 58.4, the strongest since July 2021, which raised expectations of more Fed rate hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.1 percent on MND's table, the highest in about 19 years, and Brent crude rose about 3.9 percent. Governor Barr also said further policy adjustments are likely.

Are Florida homeowners insurance rates going down in 2026?

For some policies, yes. Florida's Office of Insurance Regulation approved four homeowners rate decreases averaging 7 percent on about 62,000 policies, reported September 23, and the 30-day average requested change is a 4.8 percent decrease. Citizens Property Insurance had 266,231 policies in August, down from 1.4 million in 2023.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index, Treasury table and Thursday rate-trend indicator (September 23 close; read September 24): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, Matthew Graham, "Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since May 2024", September 23, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09232026
• Fortune, "Mortgage rates today, Sept. 24, 2026: Rates inch upward again", September 24, 2026: https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-09-24-2026/
• Calculated Risk, "High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak, Single Family Inventory Increases" (MBA and Altos), September 23, 2026: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequency-data-purchase-applications-eb9
• HousingWire, Sarah Wolak, "Mortgage demand slips again as rates push past 7%", September 23, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-applications-fall-rates-7/
• Mortgage Bankers Association, "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey", September 23, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/09/23/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
• Federal Reserve Board, Governor Michael S. Barr, "A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter", September 23, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260923a.htm
• Quartz, "Fed official backed more rate hikes as inflation data pushed October odds higher", September 23, 2026: https://qz.com/fed-barr-rate-hikes-pmi-inflation-october-092326
• Invezz, "Fed's Williams signals another rate hike as October bets surge", September 24, 2026: https://invezz.com/news/2026/09/24/feds-williams-signals-another-rate-hike-as-october-bets-surge/
• Trading Economics, "US Private Sector Expands at Fastest Pace in Over 5 Years", September 23, 2026: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/composite-pmi/news/586147
• InvestingLive, "US September S&P Global flash services PMI 58.7 vs 56.0 expected", September 23, 2026: https://investinglive.com/news/us-september-s-p-global-flash-services-pmi-58-7-vs-56-0-expected/
• CNN Business, "10-year Treasury yield hits 5.1% for first time in 19 years", September 23, 2026 (search summary only; page not read): https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/23/investing/us-bond-market-fed
• Trading Economics, Brent crude page (read September 24, 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
• Insurance Journal, William Rabb, "Florida OIR Approves Four More HO Rate Cuts as Citizens Keeps Shrinking", September 23, 2026: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2026/09/23/886558.htm
• Florida Realtors, "Tight inventory helps Florida prices hold firm", September 2026: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/tight-inventory-helps-florida-prices-hold-firm
• Economic Weekly, "Economic Weekly September 18, 2026" (new-home sales consensus; search summary only, page not read): https://economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-weekly-september-18-2026
• NAR via GlobeNewswire, "NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Decrease in August", September 10, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359670/0/en/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-decrease-in-august.html

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.