Market Brief

Mortgage rates slipped to 7.17 percent, the lowest in a week, while KB Home beat earnings estimates but reported Southeast net orders down 24 percent and said conditions have weakened since June.

MND 30-year 7.17%, lowest in a week. KB Home earned $1.05 a share, beat, but Southeast orders fell 24%. October hike odds near 60%.

The Wednesday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs. Yesterday's September 22 brief carried the Saudi pipeline restart, the lender forecast reset, August foreclosure data with Florida detail and the Citizens policy count; this one covers Tuesday's rate close, KB Home's fiscal third-quarter results with the Southeast segment broken out, oil and the 10-year, the October odds, Realtor.com's Florida metro timing, the inventory disagreement between builders and Florida Realtors, rents, and the rest of the week's calendar.

Mortgage rates: 7.17 percent, the lowest in a week

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Tuesday, September 22, at 7.17 percent, down 2 basis points from 7.19 percent and 82 basis points above a year earlier. MND said the average lender is "now at the lowest levels in a week," matching September 14, and that before that you would have to go back to January 2025 to see anything higher. The 15-year was unchanged at 6.83 percent, jumbo 7.35 percent, FHA 6.80 percent, VA 6.82 percent and the 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.72 percent. MND's Wednesday rate-trend indicator read positive at the time of writing, with MBS prices "increased slightly," and the UMBS 6.0 coupon at 99.89, up 0.06.

Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average for a 30-year conforming loan was 7.047 percent Wednesday, down from 7.068 percent and 3 basis points lower than a week earlier; the 15-year was 6.305 percent, jumbo 7.275 percent (up 8 on the week), FHA 6.500 percent and VA 6.587 percent. Fortune notes it reviewed MRC data available on September 22. The weekly surveys have not changed since yesterday: Freddie Mac 6.95 percent for September 17 and MBA 6.97 percent for the week ending September 11. MBA's survey for the week ending September 18 is scheduled for release this morning, but it had not surfaced in our searches when this was written; Thursday's brief will carry it. Freddie Mac's next PMMS is Thursday at noon.

KB Home: $1.05 a share beat, but orders down 12 percent and Southeast down 24

KB Home reported fiscal third-quarter results (quarter ended August 31) after the close Tuesday. Diluted earnings were $1.05 a share against $1.61 a year earlier and a consensus of $0.88 to $0.90 that yesterday's brief carried (Benzinga cites $0.89). Total revenue was $1.297 billion, down 20 percent, roughly in line with estimates. Deliveries fell 19 percent to 2,732 homes at an average selling price of $473,000, versus $475,700. The housing gross margin was 16.5 percent, or 16.8 percent excluding $3.0 million of inventory-related charges, versus 18.9 percent adjusted a year earlier; that adjusted figure came in above the 16.0 to 16.6 percent range the company had guided. Net income was $65.3 million against $109.8 million.

The demand side is weaker. Net orders fell 12 percent to 2,604, monthly orders per community were 3.1 versus 3.8, and the cancellation rate rose to 18 percent of gross orders from 17 percent. Ending backlog rose for the first time in four years, up 2 percent to 4,398 homes and 3 percent to $2.05 billion, which the company ties to its return to a built-to-order model (nearly three-quarters of deliveries). Executive Chairman Jeffrey Mezger said conditions have been "weakening since our June earnings report," and MarketBeat's summary of the call has him citing inflation, fuel prices, the Fed's hike and resale competition, with resale inventory at its highest level in a decade and prices starting to decline in more markets.

The Southeast segment, which includes Florida, had the second-steepest order decline of the four regions, behind Central (down 26.2 percent). From the company's supplemental tables: Southeast net orders were 632 against 826 a year earlier, down 23.5 percent; net order value fell 21.2 percent to $227.9 million; deliveries fell 17.9 percent to 654; the average selling price slipped 1.6 percent to $374,100; and Southeast backlog was 1,071 homes versus 1,191, down 10.1 percent. By contrast, West Coast orders rose 7.7 percent. The Southeast figures are not Florida-only, and KB Home did not break out Florida in the release.

Guidance: fourth-quarter deliveries of 3,000 to 3,500 homes, housing revenue of $1.45 to $1.65 billion and a housing gross margin of 16.0 to 16.6 percent; full-year housing revenue of $4.90 to $5.10 billion and deliveries of 10,500 to 11,000, which the company said is within its prior ranges. On the stock, Benzinga had shares up 1.87 percent after hours at $49.50 and Investing.com's headline said up 3 percent; a separate summary we could not verify described an after-hours slip, so we do not carry a direction beyond the early after-hours prints.

Oil and the 10-year: Brent near $99, 10-year at 4.94 percent

Brent crude was $98.47 on Tuesday, September 22, down 1.87 percent on the day, per Trading Economics, a fifth straight daily decline and the lowest in two weeks after reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. lifted its blockade of Iranian ports. Wednesday morning was mixed: a CNBC report, which we read only as a search summary, had November Brent up 0.36 percent at $99.57 and November WTI down 0.44 percent at $90.12, with traders weighing Tuesday's roughly three-hour U.S.-Iran meeting at the United Nations against President Trump's latest threat. Yesterday's brief carried The National's 6:19 a.m. Tuesday print of $97.81 Brent; Trading Economics' daily figure is higher than that early intraday print.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.942 percent on MND's table at the September 22 close, down 2.4 basis points. Trading Economics described the 10-year as falling nearly 2 basis points to 4.93 percent Tuesday, reversing an early rise as oil fell; a separate line on the same page said 4.97 percent, which looks like an intraday reading, and we do not use it. MND's afternoon headline was "Bonds Bounce Back After Mid-Day Stumble," and its morning column was titled "Fake or Not, Hormuz Headlines Helping Bonds." The link between oil and the 10-year that has driven mortgage rates all month held again Tuesday.

Fed: October hike odds near 60 percent, 40 percent for two more

A CME FedWatch mirror showed 59.7 percent odds of a quarter-point hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting as of September 22, the same reading yesterday's brief carried for September 20. Simon Moore at Forbes, writing September 22, said fixed-income markets now put about a 40 percent chance on hikes at both October 28 and December 9, more than the single further hike most FOMC participants penciled in on September 16. He cites Brent back over $100 earlier this month and August core CPI up 0.3 percent; the next CPI report is October 14. A 54.2 percent FedWatch reading appeared in search results without a date, and we do not carry it.

Governor Michael Barr speaks at 10:05 a.m. Eastern today at the Chicago Fed's "Housing Affordability 2026" summit; the Board's calendar lists the topic as "Economic Outlook and Housing." One search summary listed a 10:20 time, which is Vice Chair Jefferson's slot from Tuesday; the Board's calendar is the source we follow. Tomorrow's brief will carry anything Barr says about housing or the rate path.

Florida timing and the inventory disagreement

Florida Realtors, reporting September 17 on Realtor.com's 2026 Best Time to Buy analysis, dates the most favorable week to October 25 to 31 in Jacksonville and Orlando and November 29 to December 5 in Miami and Tampa, the latest window among the 50 largest metros. In Jacksonville's best week, asking prices have historically run 7.1 percent below the seasonal peak, the largest discount of the four Florida metros, with active listings 13.8 percent above an average week, buyer competition 40.6 percent below its high and homes on market 18 days longer than in the fastest week. Orlando's figures are 3.8 percent below peak and 12.3 percent more listings; Tampa's 4.9 percent and 12.7 percent, with the sharpest drop in competition at 43.4 percent; Miami's 3.7 percent and 7 percent. Nationally the week is September 27 to October 3, with inventory 13.3 percent above an average week. Yesterday's brief carried a national figure of up to 31.9 percent more listings than at the start of the year; the two use different baselines, and both are historical seasonal patterns from 2018 to 2025 that exclude mortgage rates, not a forecast of this year.

The inventory picture depends on who is describing it. KB Home's management, per MarketBeat, said resale inventory is at its highest level in a decade, and NAR's August report (released September 10) put national months of supply at 4.9. Lennar said last week that Florida resale inventory is "particularly high." Florida Realtors' August statewide report, covered in our September 17 brief, said supply of both single-family homes and condos fell by double digits from a year earlier, and chief economist Brad O'Connor said "tightening inventory is keeping home prices largely intact," with the single-family median at $415,000. Those describe different things: builders compete with resale listings in their own submarkets, while the Florida Realtors count is statewide MLS supply. We carry both framings rather than choose. Our Florida median price page for August has the local series.

Rents, delinquencies and migration: nothing new with a September date

Apartment List's latest national report, covering August, put the median rent at $1,390, up 0.1 percent on the month (a seventh straight monthly gain) and down 0.8 percent on the year, with multifamily vacancy at 7.1 percent, down from a February peak of 7.3 percent. Our July county rent table has the Florida detail. ICE's First Look for August had not surfaced in our searches; the July edition (August 25) reported the national delinquency rate down 16 basis points. On migration we found no new dated data this week and carry nothing; the Census-based figures in circulation are 2025 estimates. The ATTOM August foreclosure data in yesterday's brief remain the newest Florida distress numbers.

The rest of the week: new-home sales and Freddie Mac Thursday

Thursday: Census Bureau August new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. (July was 607,000 annualized, down from 678,000 in June; our July new-home sales article has the detail), Freddie Mac's PMMS at noon and the Fed's Senior Credit Officer survey at 2:00 p.m. Friday: durable goods and the final September University of Michigan sentiment reading. Next week: JOLTS and Conference Board confidence on September 29, PCE inflation on September 30 and the September jobs report on October 2. NAR's August existing-home sales already came out September 10 (3.98 million annualized, down 2.0 percent) and are not on this week's calendar.

What this means for Northeast Florida

The daily index is at 7.17 percent and moving slightly the right way, with oil still the main lever. KB Home's Southeast numbers are the local signal: orders down about a quarter on the year, a smaller backlog and a 1.6 percent lower average price in the region that includes Florida, at the same time the company describes resale competition as the highest in a decade. For a First Coast buyer weighing new construction against resale, that combination is usually when builder incentives widen, though KB Home did not quantify incentives in the release. Realtor.com's history puts Jacksonville's best seasonal week at October 25 to 31, about a month away, with the largest asking-price discount of the four big Florida metros. The 2026 Jacksonville market page and the Jacksonville data hub carry the running local series, and the Jacksonville August median price page has the latest monthly figure.

What we are not saying

We are not calling the October decision; we carry the 59.7 percent single-meeting reading and Forbes' 40 percent two-hike scenario, and we dropped an undated 54.2 percent reading. The KB Home Southeast segment is not a Florida-only number. We do not carry a direction for KB Home's stock beyond the early after-hours prints, because the reports disagree. The Wednesday oil prices come from a search summary, not a page we could read. The Realtor.com timing is a historical seasonal pattern, not a price forecast. MBA's weekly survey due this morning is not in this brief. Every figure carries its source and date; weekly and monthly series lag the daily indexes.

People also ask

What is the mortgage rate on September 23, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index was 7.17 percent at the September 22 close, the lowest in a week, with MBS prices slightly higher Wednesday morning. Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average was 7.047 percent Wednesday, down from 7.068 percent. Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 6.95 percent for September 17, with the next release Thursday at noon.

How did KB Home do in the third quarter of 2026?

KB Home earned $1.05 a share for the quarter ended August 31, beating estimates of about $0.89, on revenue of $1.297 billion, down 20 percent. Net orders fell 12 percent to 2,604 and Southeast orders fell about 24 percent to 632. The company kept full-year housing revenue guidance of $4.90 to $5.10 billion and said conditions have weakened since June.

When is the best time to buy a home in Jacksonville in 2026?

Realtor.com's 2026 Best Time to Buy analysis, reported by Florida Realtors on September 17, names October 25 to 31 for Jacksonville and Orlando. In that week Jacksonville asking prices have historically run 7.1 percent below the seasonal peak with 13.8 percent more active listings than an average week. It is a seasonal pattern from 2018 to 2025 data, not a forecast.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index, Treasury table and Wednesday rate-trend indicator (September 22 close; read September 23): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, "Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Week", September 22, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Fortune, "Mortgage rates today, Sept. 23, 2026: Rate fluctuations mostly remain tiny", September 23, 2026: https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-09-23-2026/
• KB Home via PR Newswire, "KB Home Reports 2026 Third Quarter Results", September 22, 2026: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kb-home-reports-2026-third-quarter-results-302885291.html
• KB Home, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, September 22, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000795266/000079526626000068/exh991kbh-earningsrelease0.htm
• Benzinga, "KB Home Posts Q3 Double Beat Despite 'Weakening' Housing Market", September 22, 2026: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/26/09/61935036/kb-home-posts-q3-double-beat-despite-weakening-housing-market
• Investing.com, "KB Home beats Q3 bottom-line estimates, shares rise 3%", September 22, 2026: https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/kb-home-beats-q3-bottomline-estimates-shares-rise-3-93CH-4911620
• MarketBeat, "KB Home Q3 Earnings Call Highlights", September 22, 2026: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-kb-home-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-09-22/
• Trading Economics, Brent crude and U.S. 10-year yield pages (read September 23, 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
• CNBC, "Oil prices mixed after U.S. and Iran talk for hours at UN meeting", September 23, 2026 (search summary only; page not read): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/iran-us-talks-crude-oil-un-wti.html
• Forbes, Simon Moore, "Markets Signal Fed May Have Started On A Series Of Hikes", September 22, 2026: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/22/markets-signal-fed-may-have-started-on-a-series-of-hikes/
• Beansprout, CME FedWatch mirror (as of September 22, 2026): https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch
• Federal Reserve Board, Calendar: September 2026 (Barr September 23, 10:05 a.m.): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm
• Florida Realtors, "Late fall could provide Florida buyers' edge", September 17, 2026: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/late-fall-could-provide-florida-buyers-edge
• Florida Realtors, "Florida home prices hold firm in August", September 17, 2026: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/florida-home-prices-hold-firm-august
• NAR via GlobeNewswire, "NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Decrease in August", September 10, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359670/0/en/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-decrease-in-august.html
• Apartment List, National Rent Report (August 2026 data): https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data
• ICE, "First Look at July 2026 Mortgage Data", August 25, 2026: https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports/first-look-at-july-2026-mortgage-data
• U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly New Residential Sales, July 2026: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.