Market Brief

Freddie Mac's 30-year average jumped to 7.28 percent the day before the September jobs report showed employers added only 29,000 jobs and unemployment rose to 4.2 percent, a miss that pulled the 10-year Treasury yield and the odds of an October Fed hike lower.

Freddie Mac 30-year 7.28%. September payrolls +29,000, unemployment 4.2%. PCE 3.4%. Case-Shiller: Tampa down 0.7%. Florida FIGA 1% fee ends.

The Friday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs. Our last September 27 brief previewed a heavy week: Case-Shiller, PCE inflation and this morning's jobs report, with the 30-year near 7.24 percent on rate-lock data. All three have now landed. Rates kept rising through Wednesday, inflation came in cooler than forecast, and the September jobs report released at 8:30 a.m. ET today was well below expectations. This brief covers the jobs miss and what it did to bond yields, Thursday's Freddie Mac survey, the PCE and Fed picture, July home prices for Miami and Tampa, August mortgage delinquency, September rents and a Florida insurance fee that ended on October 1.

Jobs: 29,000 in September, unemployment 4.2 percent

The U.S. economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning, per Benzinga's 8:34 a.m. ET report on the release. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent on the month and 3.0 percent on the year, both below forecasts. We read the release figures through Benzinga's report and secondary coverage; the BLS page itself did not load for us.

Revisions made the picture weaker. August payrolls were revised to 133,000 from the 162,000 first reported, which our September 27 brief carried, and July was revised to a loss of 10,000 from a gain of 21,000. Together, July and August now show 60,000 fewer jobs than first reported, and the 12-month average gain is 45,000 a month. Health care added 17,000 jobs, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000, while financial activities lost 7,000.

The consensus figures differ by source, and we carry both. Our September 27 brief carried Trading Economics' September 25 consensus of 100,000 jobs and 4.2 percent unemployment. Benzinga put the expectation at 90,000 jobs and 4.1 percent this morning. Either way, the actual number was well below forecast. Our August jobs report article has the prior month's detail.

Rates: 7.28 percent on Freddie Mac, higher on the daily trackers

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.28 percent for the week ending October 1, up from 7.03 percent a week earlier and 6.34 percent a year ago, per its October 1 release. The 15-year averaged 6.60 percent, up from 6.42 percent.

The daily trackers ran higher. Optimal Blue's 30-year rate-lock index closed Wednesday, September 30, at 7.39 percent, its third straight gain and a new 52-week high, with the 15-year at 6.62 percent, per MortgageDaily's October 1 report on FRED data. MortgageDaily said the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.29 percent on September 30 and that the spread to mortgage rates was 210 basis points, a bit wider than its one-year average. A search summary of Mortgage News Daily's October 1 newsletter put its index at 7.54 percent Thursday, down from 7.60 percent; we could not open that newsletter. These trackers measure different things: Freddie Mac averages applications over several days, and the daily indexes move with each bond session.

The jobs miss pushed bond yields lower this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to 5.18 percent by 8:43 a.m. ET, per Benzinga. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year, so today's move points lower for rate sheets, but one session does not reverse a month-long climb. On a $320,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.28 percent is about $2,189 a month, against about $1,989 at last year's 6.34 percent, our arithmetic. Our adjustable-rate mortgage explainer covers the ARM side of that choice.

Inflation and the Fed: PCE at 3.4 percent, hike odds fall

The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier in August, below forecasts of 3.7 percent, and core PCE rose 3.0 percent, down from 3.3 percent in July, per Yahoo Finance's September 30 report on the Bureau of Economic Analysis release. Core rose 0.2 percent on the month. Part of the cooler reading came from a BEA methodology change to three categories, which Capital Economics estimated took 0.3 point off core inflation, per the same report. Our September 27 brief had the prior headline reading at 3.7 percent and a 0.4 percent monthly forecast; the actual came in under both.

Rate-hike odds dropped quickly. Our September 26 brief carried a 75.8 percent probability of a quarter-point Fed increase on October 28, from a search summary citing CME FedWatch. By Wednesday afternoon, futures priced roughly a 35 percent chance, per Yahoo Finance, after New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday he sees "no need for urgency." Before this morning's jobs report the chance was 23 percent, and after it 13 percent, per Benzinga citing CME FedWatch. The Fed's target range is 3.75 to 4.00 percent after its September increase.

Home prices: Case-Shiller up 1.9 percent, Tampa down 0.7 percent

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier in July, up from 1.6 percent in June, per S&P Dow Jones Indices' September 29 release. The consensus our September 27 brief carried was 2.2 percent. S&P said home values fell in real terms for the 14th straight month because inflation ran at 3.4 percent.

The two Florida metros in the index went different ways. Miami rose 3.53 percent from a year earlier and 0.39 percent from June. Tampa fell 0.73 percent from a year earlier and 0.09 percent from June. Chicago led all 20 cities at 6.86 percent and Seattle was weakest at minus 1.57 percent. Our June Case-Shiller article has the prior month.

Delinquency and builders

The national mortgage delinquency rate rose 14 basis points to 3.53 percent in August, which ICE said was mostly a calendar effect, per its September 28 First Look. Loans 90 or more days past due rose by 11,000 to 574,000, up 19 percent from a year earlier, and foreclosure inventory was 298,000, up 41 percent. Florida was not among the five states with the highest or lowest non-current rates in the release. Prepayments fell to a 17-month low as rates rose.

Builders reported the same slowdown. KB Home said on September 22 that third-quarter net orders fell 12 percent to 2,604 homes and its housing gross margin was 16.5 percent, down from 18.2 percent. Our September 23 brief covered the Southeast segment, where orders fell about a quarter.

Rents: national average slips to $1,752

U.S. apartment rents fell 0.08 percent in September to a national average of $1,752, per Apartments.com's September 30 report, though annual growth rose to 1.5 percent. Rents in the South region were up 0.2 percent from a year earlier, positive for the first time since September 2025, per the same report. Our Florida rents by county table has the Florida detail.

Florida insurance: the 1 percent FIGA assessment ended October 1

The Florida Insurance Guaranty Association's 1 percent emergency assessment on homeowners and commercial policies ended on October 1, two years early, per Insurance Journal's February 23 report on FIGA's decision. The fee, added in 2023 to pay claims left by insolvent insurers, applied to policies written through September 30. Insurance Journal estimated the savings at about $31 a year on a $3,066 average personal residential premium, and FIGA put total savings at up to $650 million over two years. Our August insurance article has the rate filings.

What this means for Northeast Florida

For a First Coast buyer, this week's survey rate of 7.28 percent sets the monthly payment at about $2,189 on a $320,000 loan, but the morning's drop in yields means a quote taken today or Monday may come in under quotes from earlier in the week. Asking for a fresh quote is worth it. For owners renewing homeowners coverage now, the FIGA line item is gone, though it is small next to the full premium. Tampa's annual price decline in Case-Shiller is a Florida signal. Case-Shiller does not cover Jacksonville, so the 2026 Jacksonville market page and our Florida migration page carry the running local series.

What we are not saying

We are not saying mortgage rates have turned lower; one morning's move in the 10-year does not set a trend, and Freddie Mac's next survey on October 8 will cover this week's higher daily rates. We read the jobs figures through Benzinga's report and secondary coverage, not the BLS release page. The Mortgage News Daily figure came from a search summary. Consensus figures varied by source and are shown as reported. Case-Shiller data runs through July and covers only Miami and Tampa in Florida. We left migration out this week because we found no dated source. Every figure carries its source and date.

People also ask

How many jobs were added in September 2026?

The U.S. added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 2, per Benzinga. August was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000.

What is the Freddie Mac mortgage rate this week?

Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.28 percent and the 15-year at 6.60 percent for the week ending October 1, 2026, up from 7.03 and 6.42 percent a week earlier.

What was PCE inflation in August 2026?

The PCE price index rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier in August 2026, and core PCE rose 3.0 percent, per the September 30 release as reported by Yahoo Finance. Both came in below forecasts.

Are home prices falling in Tampa?

In the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index released September 29, Tampa home prices were down 0.73 percent in July from a year earlier, while Miami was up 3.53 percent and the national index was up 1.9 percent.

Sources

• Freddie Mac, "Mortgage Rates Average 7.28%", October 1, 2026: https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-728
• Benzinga, Piero Cingari, "September Jobs Report Misses: US Economy Adds 29,000 Jobs", October 2, 2026, 8:34 a.m. ET: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/10/62131064/september-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-wages
• MortgageDaily, Darryl Linnington, "Mortgage Rates Today: Daily 30-Year Rate 7.39% Oct 1 2026", October 1, 2026: https://www.mortgagedaily.com/rates/mortgage-rates-today-2026-10-01/
• Mortgage News Daily, Daily Newsletter, October 1, 2026 (search summary; not opened): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20261001
• Yahoo Finance, Jennifer Schonberger, "PCE inflation eases to 3.4%, cooling the case for another Fed rate hike", September 30, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/pce-inflation-eases-to-34--cooling-the-case-for-another-fed-rate-hike-125513195.html
• S&P Dow Jones Indices, "S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in July 2026", September 29, 2026: https://press.spglobal.com/2026-09-29-S-P-Cotality-Case-Shiller-Index-Reports-Annual-Gain-in-July-2026
• ICE, "ICE First Look: Mortgage Performance Remains Stable as Foreclosure Inventory Growth Slows to Nine-Month Low", September 28, 2026: https://www.financialcontent.com/article/bizwire-2026-9-28-ice-first-look-mortgage-performance-remains-stable-as-foreclosure-inventory-growth-slows-to-nine-month-low
• KB Home, "KB Home Reports 2026 Third Quarter Results", September 22, 2026: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/kb-home-reports-2026-third-quarter-results-2026-09-22
• Apartments.com, "Multifamily Rent Growth Report for September 2026", September 30, 2026: https://www.financialcontent.com/article/bizwire-2026-9-30-apartmentscom-releases-multifamily-rent-growth-report-for-september-2026
• Insurance Journal, "FIGA Moves to End 1% Assessment for Insolvent Insurer Claims 2 Years Early", February 23, 2026: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2026/02/23/859242.htm

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.