Market Brief

With the 30-year fixed at 7.24 percent on Optimal Blue's rate-lock index, 49.9 percent of outstanding U.S. mortgages still carry a rate of 4 percent or less, the widest gap between new and existing borrowers since the early 1980s, as PCE inflation and the September jobs report head a heavy week of data.

Optimal Blue 30-year 7.24%. 49.9% of mortgages at 4% or less. New homes now priced below existing. PCE Wednesday, jobs Friday.

The Sunday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs. Yesterday's September 26 brief covered Friday's 7.49 percent close on the Mortgage News Daily index, final September consumer sentiment of 48.1, a 5.17 percent 10-year Treasury, Citizens Property Insurance near 255,000 policies and the Brightline parent filing. This one steps back from the daily tape to the structural number behind a slow market: how many owners hold loans far below today's rate. It also covers where the rate-lock data closed the week, the claim that new homes are now cheaper than existing ones, the gap between national and Florida supply, and a week ahead that includes Case-Shiller, PCE inflation and the September jobs report.

The lock-in gap: 49.9 percent of mortgages at 4 percent or less

Nearly half of outstanding U.S. mortgages, 49.9 percent, carried a rate of 4 percent or less in the first quarter of 2026, per a Realtor.com analysis of Federal Housing Finance Agency National Mortgage Database figures cited in Bloomberg's September 26 housing newsletter and in secondary summaries we read. We could not open the Bloomberg newsletter itself; we carry the figure as reported and note it is a first-quarter reading, before this summer's rate climb. Roughly four in five outstanding loans were below 6 percent on the same data.

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Justin Fox wrote on September 24 that the gap between market mortgage rates and the rates existing owners pay has not been this wide since the early 1980s, that it had been narrowing slowly since 2023, and that this summer's increases appear to have widened it again. His argument is that falling rates ended the 1982 lock-in, and that mortgage rates cannot fall eight points this time. That leaves ordinary turnover, which is slow, as the main way the gap closes. He also noted that about 23 percent of outstanding mortgages are FHA, VA or USDA loans, which are assumable, though assumptions remain a very small share of sales.

The arithmetic is our own. On a $320,000 loan, principal and interest at 3 percent is about $1,349 a month, at 4 percent about $1,528, and at 7.24 percent about $2,181. A household trading a 3 percent loan for a new one at this week's rate, on the same balance, pays roughly $832 a month more before taxes, insurance and HOA dues. Bloomberg's newsletter put the gap at nearly $1,000 a month on a $500,000 home at 7 percent against 3 percent; we have not seen its loan assumptions.

Rates: 7.24 percent on rate locks, 7.49 percent on the daily index

Optimal Blue's 30-year rate-lock index, published through FRED with a one-day lag, closed its last available session, Thursday, September 24, at 7.24 percent, up 21 basis points from Monday's 7.03 percent and a new 52-week high, per MortgageDaily's September 26 weekly recap. The 15-year stood at 6.52 percent. MortgageDaily said nearly all of the week's move came on Wednesday and Thursday and that the spread between the 30-year and the 10-year Treasury held near 206 basis points, close to its one-year average of 200, so the bond move passed through to rate sheets almost intact. Friday's Optimal Blue reading had not posted when we checked.

The trackers still disagree, and we carry all of them. Mortgage News Daily's index was 7.49 percent at Friday's close, as our September 26 brief reported. Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 7.03 percent for September 24, its first reading above 7 percent since January 2025. MBA's contract rate was 7.12 percent for the week ending September 18. These measure different things: MND and Optimal Blue are daily, Freddie Mac averages applications over several days, and Optimal Blue reflects actual locks rather than posted quotes.

The 15-year discount widened to 72 basis points during the week, from 65 on Tuesday, per MortgageDaily. On a $320,000 loan, the 15-year at 6.52 percent runs about $2,791 a month against $2,181 for the 30-year at 7.24 percent, our arithmetic. Our adjustable-rate mortgage explainer covers the ARM side of the same choice.

New homes now priced below existing homes

Fox wrote that, for the first time on record and setting aside seasonal swings, the median sale price of new single-family houses is now lower than the median for existing ones. Builders have gotten there partly by building smaller houses. New houses were about 15 percent of single-family sales over the past 12 months, per the same column, so the effect on the overall market is limited.

Builder results line up with that picture. Lennar reported on September 16 that third-quarter new orders fell 9 percent to 20,879 homes and gross margin on home sales was 15.8 percent, up from 15.6 percent in the prior quarter but lower year over year on lower revenue per square foot and higher land costs, per its earnings release. Our September 25 brief covered August new-home sales and builder incentives.

Supply: more sellers nationally, fewer listings in Florida

Nationally, the balance has tilted toward buyers. Redfin estimated there were 58 percent more sellers than buyers in August and that almost one fifth of listings took a price cut, per Bloomberg's September 24 report on sellers cutting prices; we read those figures in a search summary of that article. Redfin's latest weekly report, for the four weeks ending September 13, put pending sales at 299,126, down 5.4 percent from a year earlier and the lowest in nearly three years. NAR's August existing-home sales ran at a 3.98 million annual rate with 1.62 million homes for sale, or 4.9 months of supply.

Florida is moving the other way on supply. Florida Realtors' August report showed single-family inventory down 13 percent from August 2025 and condo and townhouse inventory down 11.5 percent, with the single-family median at $415,000, up 1.2 percent, and closed sales down 1.4 percent. Tighter local supply is one reason Florida prices are holding while national listings grow. Our Florida buyer's market page and the Jacksonville August median price page carry the regional detail.

Florida insurance: litigation down 55 percent at Citizens

One detail from the Citizens Property Insurance board meeting that our earlier briefs did not carry: President Timothy Cerio attributed part of the improving market to legislative changes aimed at insurers' litigation costs and said lawsuits involving Citizens claims have fallen 55 percent since 2023, per Florida Realtors' September 24 report with News Service Florida. The same report carried the policy count of nearly 255,000 as of September 18 and four newly approved homeowners rate decreases of 3.2 to 10.4 percent. Our August insurance article has the earlier filings.

The week ahead: Case-Shiller, PCE and the jobs report

Trading Economics' September 25 calendar lists these U.S. releases, with consensus figures as of that date:

• Tuesday, September 29: S&P Case-Shiller home prices for July, 9 a.m. ET, with the year-over-year gain expected at 2.2 percent against 2.1 percent the prior month; August JOLTS job openings, expected near 7.23 million; Conference Board consumer confidence.
• Wednesday, September 30: August PCE price index at 8:30 a.m. ET, headline expected up 0.4 percent on the month and core up 0.3 percent, both faster than July's 0.2 percent; the prior year-over-year headline reading was 3.7 percent. Final second-quarter GDP and the ADP private payroll estimate, expected at 70,000, are also due.
• Thursday, October 1: weekly jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index.
• Friday, October 2: September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, with payrolls expected at 100,000 against 162,000 in August and unemployment expected at 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent.

Several Fed officials speak during the week. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent at its September 15 and 16 meeting, and yesterday's brief carried a 75.8 percent probability of another quarter-point increase on October 28 from a search summary citing CME FedWatch. For mortgage rates, Wednesday's PCE and Friday's payrolls matter most because they move the 10-year yield that lenders price from.

What this means for Northeast Florida

For a First Coast owner with a low-rate loan, moving means giving up that rate, and on our arithmetic the monthly difference on a $320,000 balance is in the hundreds of dollars. That keeps some would-be sellers in place, which is part of why Florida listings are falling even as they rise nationally. For a buyer, new construction priced near or below resale is worth comparing directly, including builder rate buydowns, and a 15-year quote is worth pricing alongside the 30-year. The 2026 Jacksonville market page and our Florida migration page carry the running local series.

What we are not saying

We are not saying lock-in will last a set number of years; the 49.9 percent figure is a first-quarter reading, and we did not open the Bloomberg newsletter that cited it. The claim that new homes are now cheaper than existing ones is from a Bloomberg Opinion column, not our own data. The Redfin seller and price-cut figures came to us through a search summary of Bloomberg's September 24 article. Optimal Blue, Mortgage News Daily, Freddie Mac and MBA use different panels and methods, so their numbers differ without contradicting one another. The week-ahead consensus figures are forecasts as of September 25 and will move. Every figure carries its source and date.

People also ask

What percentage of mortgages are below 4 percent?

About 49.9 percent of outstanding U.S. mortgages carried a rate of 4 percent or less in the first quarter of 2026, per a Realtor.com analysis of FHFA National Mortgage Database figures cited by Bloomberg on September 26. Roughly four in five were below 6 percent.

What is the mortgage rate on September 27, 2026?

Mortgage rates do not update on weekends. Optimal Blue's 30-year rate-lock index was 7.24 percent for Thursday, September 24, its latest published reading, and the 15-year was 6.52 percent. Mortgage News Daily's index closed Friday at 7.49 percent, and Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 7.03 percent for September 24.

Are new homes cheaper than existing homes now?

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Justin Fox wrote on September 24 that, for the first time on record and adjusting for seasonal swings, the median price of new single-family houses is below the median for existing ones, partly because builders are building smaller homes. New houses were about 15 percent of single-family sales over the past year.

When is the next jobs report?

The September jobs report is scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Trading Economics' consensus as of September 25 was 100,000 new payrolls, down from 162,000 in August, with unemployment at 4.2 percent.

Sources

• Bloomberg, "As Mortgage Rates Hit 7%, the Lock-In Effect Gets Stronger", newsletter, September 26, 2026 (headline and search summary; not opened): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-09-26/as-mortgage-rates-hit-7-the-lock-in-effect-gets-stronger
• Advisor Perspectives (Bloomberg Opinion), Justin Fox, "Your 3% Mortgage Rate Is Crippling the Housing Market", September 25, 2026 (originally Bloomberg, September 24): https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/09/25/3-mortgage-rate-crippling-housing-market
• MortgageDaily, Darryl Linnington, "Mortgage Rates Weekly Recap: Week of Sep 21 to 25, 2026", September 26, 2026: https://www.mortgagedaily.com/rates/mortgage-rates-weekly-recap-2026-09-26/
• Optimal Blue 30-year fixed rate-lock index via FRED (OBMMIC30YF): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIC30YF
• Mortgage News Daily, Daily Newsletter and rate table, September 25, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260925
• Bloomberg, "Mortgage Rates at 7% Push Sellers to Cut Home Sale Prices", September 24, 2026 (search summary): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/mortgage-rates-at-7-push-sellers-to-cut-home-sale-prices
• Redfin, "Pending Home Sales Dip to Lowest Level in Nearly 3 Years", September 17, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-lowest-level-since-2023/
• HousingWire, "August existing home sales slip to 3.98 million annual rate", September 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/existing-home-sales-august-2026/
• Lennar, "Lennar Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results", September 16, 2026: https://newsroom.lennar.com/2026-09-16-Lennar-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Results
• Florida Realtors, "Florida housing market levels off in August", September 2026: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/florida-housing-market-levels-august
• Florida Realtors, Amy Connolly, "Florida approves more home insurance rate cuts", September 24, 2026: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/florida-approves-more-home-insurance-rate-cuts
• Trading Economics, "Week Ahead: Sep 28th" and U.S. calendar, September 25, 2026: https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar?article=29372&g=top&importance=2&startdate=2026-09-25

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.