Market Brief

Mortgage rates are flat at 7.19 percent, Brent crude is under $100 for the first time in weeks after Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline, October hike odds sit between 53 and 60 percent depending on the tracker, and KB Home reports after the close.

MND 30-year 7.19% on Sept 21. Brent $97.81 as Saudi pipeline restarts. 10-year 4.95%. October hike odds 53 to 60%. KB Home reports after the close.

The Tuesday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, written before KB Home's fiscal third-quarter release this evening. Yesterday's September 21 brief carried the Freddie Mac print, August housing starts, the two pending-sales reads and Lennar's Florida commentary; this one covers Tuesday morning's oil move, the state of the bond market and mortgage pricing, the week's Fed calendar, what to watch in KB Home's numbers, the lender forecast reset, August foreclosure data with Florida detail, the condo-lending change that took effect August 3, and a dated Citizens policy count that narrows the range we have been carrying.

Mortgage rates: 7.19 percent at Monday's close, bonds stronger Tuesday morning

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index stood at 7.19 percent as of the September 21 close, down 1 basis point on the day and 84 basis points above a year earlier. The 15-year was 6.83 percent, jumbo 7.35 percent, FHA 6.81 percent, VA 6.83 percent and the 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.74 percent; the 52-week range on the 30-year remains 5.99 to 7.24 percent. MND's Tuesday rate-trend indicator read positive at the time of writing, with the note that "MBS prices are moderately stronger today," and the UMBS 6.0 coupon was up 0.15 to 99.84. The daily index updates around 4 p.m. Eastern, so Tuesday's close will be in Wednesday's brief. MND's Monday column said the average lender "remains right in line with the rates they offered before last week's Fed rate hike."

The other daily trackers moved lower Tuesday. Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average for a 30-year conforming loan was 7.068 percent, down from 7.090 percent, with the 15-year at 6.332 percent, jumbo 7.255 percent, FHA 6.511 percent and VA 6.609 percent; on the week the 30-year is up 2 basis points and jumbo up 13. Zillow's marketplace average, per Yahoo Finance's Tuesday report, was 7.03 percent, down 1 basis point, with the 15-year down 6 to 6.50 percent and the 5/1 ARM down 10 to 6.94 percent. The weekly surveys are unchanged from yesterday: Freddie Mac 6.95 percent for the week of September 17, MBA 6.97 percent for the week ending September 11, with the next MBA survey Wednesday and the next Freddie Mac print Thursday at noon. Our September ARM piece covers why the ARM discount has narrowed.

Oil: Brent $97.81 as Saudi Arabia restarts the East-West pipeline

Brent crude was $97.81 a barrel at 2:19 p.m. UAE time Tuesday (6:19 a.m. Eastern), down 2.52 percent, and West Texas Intermediate was $89.50, down 3.11 percent, per The National, which cited Reuters reporting that Saudi Arabia had restarted its East-West pipeline at a low rate and could resume exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu later Tuesday. Drone attacks had shut the 1,200-kilometer line on September 13. The National also reported, citing Equiti Group's Noureldeen Al Hammoury and EU Sentinel satellite data, that seven supertankers with capacity for 14 million barrels loaded at Saudi Gulf terminals over the weekend, and that Brent settled around $100 on Monday. CNBC's Tuesday morning read was slightly higher, with Brent down 1.8 percent at $98.56 and WTI down 2.3 percent at $93.60, a fifth straight session of declines; we could read only the search summary of that story and not the page itself, so we carry both sets of figures with their times.

Two other threads from the same reports: President Trump said he would "probably" be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week, and an Iranian signal that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days was cited in wire coverage. Neither is a settled outcome. For mortgage rates the mechanism is the one MND has described all month: oil has been the day-to-day driver of the 10-year, and last week's brief carried CNBC's figure of a 0.96 one-month correlation between front-month WTI and the 10-year yield. A week ago WTI was $102.14 and Brent $105.81.

The 10-year: 4.95 percent, October hike odds 53 to 60 percent

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.952 percent on MND's table at the September 21 close, down 4.1 basis points, and MND's Monday recap was titled "Sideways and Slightly Stronger." Forbes' Treasury table for September 21 had the 10-year at 4.96 percent, the 30-year at 5.29 percent, the 2-year at 4.76 percent, the 5-year at 4.83 percent and the 3-month bill at 4.08 percent. The 2-year at 4.76 percent against a 3.75 to 4.00 percent funds-rate target is the market's way of pricing more tightening.

The October odds depend on the tracker and we carry three. Benzinga cited CME FedWatch at 53 percent for a quarter-point increase at the October 27 to 28 meeting on Monday morning. A FedWatch mirror dated September 20 showed 59.7 percent, and a second aggregator showed 56 percent for the same meeting; the three were read at different times and use fed-funds futures with slightly different methods. HousingWire's September 21 report said markets are pricing "another increase by year's end and about 100 bps of tightening over the next 12 months, including Wednesday's move." MBA's outlook, released September 16, expects two more hikes over the next year with mortgage rates near 6.7 percent; KBW moved its 10-year forecast to 4.75 percent through 2027 from 4.4 percent, which it said would keep mortgage rates near 6.5 percent.

Fed calendar: Jefferson on Treasury-market plumbing today, Barr on housing affordability Wednesday

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at 10:20 a.m. Eastern Tuesday at the New York Fed's 2026 Treasury Market Conference, per the Board's calendar, on "Discount Window Modernization and Treasury Market Functioning." That is an operations topic, not a policy speech, and we would not expect a rate signal from it. Governor Michael Barr speaks at 10:05 a.m. Wednesday at the Chicago Fed's "Housing Affordability 2026: A Community Development Summit," which is the one to watch for housing-specific language from a Board member. Yesterday's brief carried Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee's line that one more hike "likely would not be enough" if inflation is demand-driven, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins' comment that she penciled in a second increase this year; neither votes in 2026. Fortune's Tuesday report confirms the next FOMC meeting is October 27 to 28.

KB Home tonight: consensus $0.88 to $0.90 a share, deliveries guided 2,600 to 2,800

KB Home reports fiscal third-quarter results (quarter ended August 31) after the close Tuesday, with the call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The consensus is $0.88 a share per Zacks and $0.90 per Alphastreet, against $1.61 a year earlier, on revenue of about $1.29 to $1.30 billion, down roughly 20 percent. The company's own guidance, per the Zacks preview dated September 18: housing revenue of $1.2 to $1.35 billion (a year ago: $1.61 billion), deliveries of 2,600 to 2,800 homes (a year ago: 3,393), adjusted housing gross margin of 16.0 to 16.6 percent (a year ago: 18.9 percent) and SG&A at 11.3 to 11.9 percent of housing revenue. Zacks models an average selling price of about $469,700, down 1.3 percent, new orders down 3.6 percent to 2,843, and backlog up 6.9 percent to 4,633 units on the company's shift back to a built-to-order model. KB Home's Southeast segment includes Florida, and Lennar's Thursday comment that Florida resale inventory is "particularly high" and that it cuts price when resale sellers do is the frame to hold KB Home's regional commentary against. Wednesday's brief will carry the numbers and any Florida-specific remarks.

Lenders reset forecasts: Pennymac fundings down 28 percent, MBA sees 6.7 percent rates

HousingWire reported Monday, September 21, that mortgage origination forecasts are being cut as rates stay elevated. Pennymac Financial's preliminary funding was $16.6 billion for July and August against $34.9 billion in the second quarter, which HousingWire computed as roughly a 28 percent drop in monthly production; the company told the SEC that with rates up 50 basis points from June 30, pretax income will be lower than in the second quarter. Argus Research's Kevin Heal said third-quarter origination could be down "at least a bare minimum 5%" from the second quarter. MBA's chief economist Mike Fratantoni said "housing and mortgage activity slowed abruptly as mortgage rates moved higher over the past several weeks." MBA's September 16 outlook puts 2027 origination at $2.101 trillion, down from $2.144 trillion in its August forecast and below the $2.123 trillion expected for 2026; Fannie Mae's economists have $2.279 trillion for 2027. HousingWire's own rate center read 7.28 percent on September 15 and 7.23 percent on Friday, September 18. The Yahoo Finance report cites MBA and Fannie Mae both expecting the 30-year to range between 6.70 and 6.80 percent through the rest of 2026 and into 2027; that is a forecast, and the daily index is 40 to 50 basis points above it.

Foreclosures: Florida third-highest state rate in August, Punta Gorda second among metros

ATTOM's August foreclosure report, covered by HousingWire on September 17, counted 40,277 U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing, up 1 percent from July and 13 percent from August 2025, or one in every 3,569 housing units. Florida's rate was one in 2,397 housing units, third-highest after South Carolina (one in 1,547) and Nevada (one in 1,920); Texas was one in 2,445. Among metros with at least 200,000 people, Punta Gorda ranked second nationally at one in 1,249, behind only Columbia, South Carolina. Florida had the most foreclosure starts of any state at 3,189, ahead of Texas at 3,126; national starts were 25,894, down 3 percent on the month and up 7 percent on the year. Completed foreclosures rose 42 percent from a year earlier to 5,794. ATTOM's Rob Barber said volumes "remain well below historical norms." For the Punta Gorda sales side, our August closed-sales page has the realMLS-style count.

The older ICE data still frames the trend: ICE's August Mortgage Monitor (reported August 10) had the national delinquency rate at 3.55 percent in June, active foreclosures at 0.53 percent (a six-year high, still below the 0.57 percent pre-pandemic level), 813,000 underwater borrowers, up 44 percent on the year, and Texas and Florida accounting for 39 percent of underwater homes. The MBA's second-quarter National Delinquency Survey, published August 13, had the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate at 4.37 percent, down 7 basis points on the quarter and up 44 on the year. Both are pre-September and are included for context.

Condo lending: limited reviews ended August 3, and the reserve rule tightens at year-end

A HousingWire contributor column published Tuesday by Kelly Welch of Equity Resources, writing on behalf of the Community Home Lenders of America position, lays out the condo-financing change we flagged in earlier briefs: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eliminated the limited-review option for condo project approval effective August 3, 2026, and raised project reserve requirements, with a further reserve-funding standard taking effect at year-end. CHLA's member feedback puts 60 to 80 percent of condo originations on the limited-review path before the change. The column says lenders are "already seeing increased borrowing costs, reduced lender participation in mortgage loan origination and longer loan closing timetables," and that CHLA, the Community Associations Institute and the National Association of Mortgage Brokers sent a joint letter to FHFA in July asking for flexibility, including a limited-review option at 80 percent loan-to-value and below and a one-year delay on the reserve standard. It is an advocacy piece and we present it as one. On the Florida side, the HB 913 framework is unchanged from yesterday: the 2026 reserve-item threshold is $25,675, SIRS-based reserve funding begins January 1, 2027, and the GSE change above means a Florida association that funds reserves at the statutory minimum may still fall short of what a conforming lender now requires.

Florida insurance: Citizens at "approximately 274,000" per its own June release

We can narrow the Citizens Property Insurance policy count today. Citizens' own press release dated June 23, 2026 states that its policy count "has fallen from 1.4 million in late 2023 to approximately 274,000, about 2% of the Florida residential property insurance market," that 20 new companies have entered the state since 2022, and that it secured $2.82 billion in reinsurance for the 2026 season at a cost of $276 million, with reinsurance rates down nearly 30 percent over the past year and at least $9.6 billion in claims-paying ability. That aligns with the roughly 270,000 figure Insurance Business reported September 4 and is a dated primary source, so from today we treat 274,000 (June 23) and roughly 270,000 (September 4) as the working range; the 336,000 figure from the 2026 rate kit is older and we no longer carry it as current. The 768,926 count that surfaced in searches, which yesterday's brief flagged as undated, is now confirmed by a second search result to be a September 2025 board figure, and we drop it. Nothing on the OIR-approved 2026 Citizens rate decrease (8.7 percent statewide average, effective July 1 for new policies) has changed; our August insurance piece has the county table.

The rest of the week: MBA applications, new-home sales, Freddie Mac, Michigan sentiment

Wednesday: MBA applications for the week ending September 18 (last week: total down 4.1 percent, purchase 19 percent below a year ago unadjusted) and Barr's housing speech. Thursday: Census Bureau August new-home sales at 10:00 a.m., Freddie Mac's PMMS at noon, and the Fed's Senior Credit Officer survey at 2:00 p.m. Friday: durable goods and the final September University of Michigan sentiment reading, where the preliminary was 47.8 with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6 percent; our sentiment article has the detail. Next week: JOLTS and Conference Board confidence Tuesday, September 29; PCE inflation Wednesday, September 30; the September jobs report Friday, October 2. Realtor.com's "best week to buy" analysis, published September 14 and covered by Inman and The MortgagePoint, dates the seasonal window to September 27 through October 3, when it expects listing prices about 3.5 percent below the seasonal peak and up to 31.9 percent more active listings than at the start of the year; that is a seasonal pattern, not a forecast of this year's prices.

What this means for Northeast Florida

The rate a Jacksonville buyer is quoted has not moved in a week, about 7.2 percent on the daily index and 7.03 to 7.07 percent on the marketplace averages, and the thing most likely to move it in the next few days is oil, which is going the right way this morning. Three items are more local. First, Florida had more foreclosure starts than any state in August and Punta Gorda had the second-highest metro filing rate in the country; those are Southwest Florida numbers, not First Coast numbers, but they are the first Florida-specific distress data in these briefs with a September date. Second, the GSE condo-review change is a financing headwind for any Florida condo buyer using a conforming loan, layered on top of HB 913's reserve rules, and it is the reason a condo contract here should carry a longer financing contingency than it did in July. Third, KB Home's Southeast results tonight will be the second builder read on Florida in a week. The 2026 Jacksonville market page and the Jacksonville data hub carry the running local series, and the August CPI article covers the inflation print the Fed was reacting to.

What we are not saying

We are not calling the October decision; we carry three tracker readings between 53 and 60 percent and the analysts' expectations of one to two more hikes. We carry two sets of Tuesday oil prices because the CNBC page could not be read directly and The National's figures are time-stamped; neither is a settlement price. KB Home's results were not out when this was written, and the figures above are guidance and consensus, not results. The Jefferson speech is on market operations and we do not expect policy content from it. The condo-lending section summarizes an advocacy column and says so. The Citizens 274,000 figure is Citizens' own June number, not a September count, and the 336,000 rate-kit figure is retired rather than silently dropped. Every figure carries its source and date; weekly and monthly series lag the daily indexes.

People also ask

What is the mortgage rate on September 22, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index was 7.19 percent as of the September 21 close, unchanged from pre-Fed-hike levels, with MBS prices moderately stronger Tuesday morning. Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average was 7.068 percent Tuesday, down from 7.090, and Zillow's marketplace average was 7.03 percent, down 1 basis point. Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 6.95 percent for September 17.

Why did oil prices fall on September 22, 2026?

Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline, shut by drone attacks on September 13, and could resume exports from Yanbu on Tuesday, per Reuters reporting cited by The National. Brent fell to $97.81 and WTI to $89.50 at 6:19 a.m. Eastern. Lower oil has been the main driver of lower Treasury yields and mortgage rates in September, per Mortgage News Daily.

When does KB Home report earnings and what is expected?

KB Home reports fiscal third-quarter results after the market close on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, with a 5:00 p.m. Eastern call. Consensus is $0.88 to $0.90 a share against $1.61 a year earlier, on revenue near $1.3 billion. The company guided deliveries to 2,600 to 2,800 homes and adjusted housing gross margin to 16.0 to 16.6 percent, per the Zacks preview.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index, Treasury table and Tuesday rate-trend indicator (September 21 close; read September 22, 8:30 a.m. ET): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, "Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Start New Week", September 21, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09212026
• Mortgage News Daily, "Sideways and Slightly Stronger", September 21, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09212026
• Fortune, "Mortgage rates today, Sept. 22, 2026: Rates mostly appear stuck", September 22, 2026: https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-09-22-2026/
• Yahoo Finance, "Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Tuesday, September 22, 2026", September 22, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-and-refinance-interest-rates-today-tuesday-september-22-2026-rates-move-lower-but-30-year-still-over-7-100000503.html
• The National, "Saudi Arabia restarts East-West pipeline for crude exports", September 22, 2026: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/09/22/saudi-arabia-restarts-east-west-pipeline-for-crude-exports/
• CNBC, "Oil prices fall after report Saudi Arabia aims to restart critical pipeline this week", September 22, 2026 (search summary only; page not read): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/22/oil-iran-us-bessent-un-crude.html
• Forbes Advisor, "Treasury Rates Today: September 21, 2026": https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/treasury-rates/
• Benzinga, "Goolsbee Warns On Inflation, October Hike Odds Stay Above 50%", September 21, 2026: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/09/61894102/goolsbee-inflation-warning-october-rate-hike-odds-treasury-yields-fall-oil
• Beansprout, CME FedWatch mirror (as of September 20, 2026): https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch
• CentralBank.watch, Federal Reserve meeting probabilities: https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/
• Federal Reserve Board, Calendar: September 2026 (Jefferson September 22, Barr September 23): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm
• HousingWire, "Mortgage forecasts reset lower amid higher rates", September 21, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/lenders-brace-for-tougher-mortgage-market-forecast-reset/
• Zacks via NewsBreak, "KB Home to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What Investors Must Know", September 18, 2026: https://www.newsbreak.com/zacks-investment-research-321723880/4894151643991-kb-home-to-report-q3-earnings-here-s-what-investors-must-know
• Alphastreet, "KB Home (KBH) Q3 2026 Preview: EPS Est. $0.90, Reports September 22": https://news.alphastreet.com/kb-home-kbh-q3-2026-preview-eps-est-0-90-reports-september-22/
• KB Home via Nasdaq, "KB Home to Release 2026 Third Quarter Earnings on September 22, 2026", September 8, 2026: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/kb-home-release-2026-third-quarter-earnings-september-22-2026-2026-09-08
• HousingWire, "Foreclosure filings rise 13% year-over-year, South hit hardest" (ATTOM August 2026 report), September 17, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/foreclosure-filings-rise-13-year-over-year-south-hit-hardest/
• HousingWire, "Home equity hits $18T even as delinquencies, foreclosures rise" (ICE August Mortgage Monitor), August 10, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/ice-homeowner-equity-delinquency/
• Mortgage Bankers Association, "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Second Quarter of 2026", August 13, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/08/13/mortgage-delinquencies-decrease-slightly-in-the-second-quarter-of-2026
• HousingWire, Kelly Welch, "Condo approval policies should balance prudent underwriting and affordability", September 22, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/condo-approval-affordability-rules/
• Citizens Property Insurance, "Smaller Citizens Secures Coverage for 2026 Hurricane Season", June 23, 2026: https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20260623-smaller-citizens-secures-coverage-for-2026-hurricane-season
• Insurance Business, "Citizens cuts policy count to 270,000 amid non-renewal push", September 4, 2026: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/citizens-cuts-policy-count-to-270000-amid-nonrenewal-push-588731.aspx
• Realtor.com via PR Newswire, "September 27th - October 3rd Marks the Best Time to Buy a Home in 2026", September 14, 2026: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtorcom-september-27th---october-3rd-marks-the-best-time-to-buy-a-home-in-2026-302875854.html
• FPAT, "Florida SIRS Requirements 2026: Reserves & HB 913 Guide": https://fpat.com/florida-sirs-reserve-study-costs-hb-913/

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.