Data Analysis

The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 in September 2026, down 7.5 percent from August and 13.2 percent from a year earlier, as year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6 percent.

The forward-looking half of the survey fell hardest, with the index of consumer expectations down 11.1 percent in a single month. The reading landed two business days before the Federal Reserve's September policy decision.

The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 in September 2026, down 7.5 percent from 51.7 in August and 13.2 percent from 55.1 a year earlier. The survey's forward-looking component fell hardest. Its index of consumer expectations dropped to 45.8, down 11.1 percent in a month, while the index covering current economic conditions slipped only 1.9 percent to 50.9. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6 percent from 4.0 percent in August, the highest reading since June. The university released the preliminary figures on Friday, September 11, 2026.

What did the University of Michigan report for September?

The Surveys of Consumers program at the University of Michigan publishes a preliminary reading in the middle of each month and a final reading at the end. The September preliminary covers interviews conducted through early September. Final September results are scheduled for Friday, September 25, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET, and the figures can move between the two dates.

All three headline indices fell. Sentiment went from 51.7 to 47.8. Current economic conditions went from 51.9 to 50.9, which leaves that measure 15.7 percent below its September 2025 reading of 60.4. Expectations went from 51.5 to 45.8, an 11.4 percent decline from a year earlier. The indices are set against a 1966 base of 100, so all three sit far below their historical norms.

Joanne Hsu, the program's director, wrote that "consumer sentiment receded less than 4 index points for the second consecutive month of decreases. Democrats and Republicans alike posted sizable declines, while independents were little changed from August. Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions plunged."

Why did expectations fall faster than current conditions?

The gap between the two halves of the survey is the story this month. Consumers rated their present situation almost as they did in August, and rated the year ahead far worse. Hsu attributed that to prices and to trade, writing that "with a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come."

The survey also found a floor under the longer view. Hsu wrote that "five-year expected business conditions remained stable at readings well below their historical average, suggesting that consumers believe that emerging risks this month may not have further worsened the long-run outlook." Overall, she wrote, sentiment now sits 16 percent below February, before the start of the Iran conflict, and 13 percent below a year ago.

What are consumers expecting for inflation?

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6 percent from 4.0 percent in August. Hsu wrote that the reading "substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings." Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4 percent, ending three straight months at 3.3 percent, and remain above the 2.8 to 3.2 percent range that prevailed in 2024.

Expectations are not measured prices. They are what survey respondents say they anticipate, and they have run above realized inflation for most of the past two years. They matter anyway, because the Federal Reserve watches them for signs that households have stopped treating higher prices as temporary.

How does this square with the August inflation data?

The two federal price reports published in the same week point the same direction on energy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent in August and 3.4 percent over the 12 months ended in August, with energy up 16.3 percent over the year and gasoline up 3.9 percent in the month, accounting for over a third of the monthly all items increase. The day before, BLS reported that producer prices for final demand rose 5.4 percent over the 12 months ended in August, with energy up 4.2 percent in the month and diesel fuel up 24.1 percent.

Shelter, the housing line inside CPI, rose 0.3 percent in August and 3.0 percent over the year. That is the slower-moving part of the index. Fuel is the part households see weekly, and it is the part the sentiment survey named.

Mortgage rates have drifted up alongside. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed average at 6.76 percent in the week ending September 10, up from 6.71 percent a week earlier and 6.35 percent a year earlier.

What does weak sentiment mean for Florida's housing market?

No part of this survey is broken out by state, so nothing in it is a Florida measurement. What it describes is the mood of the buyer pool, and Florida already has the country's clearest example of what a cautious buyer pool does to a market.

Redfin reported that there were 1,534,918 sellers against 972,300 buyers nationally in August, 57.9 percent more sellers than buyers, the widest gap in records that begin in 2013. Two Florida metros sit near the top of that ranking. Miami had 138 percent more sellers than buyers, down from 149 percent in July, and Orlando had 122 percent, up from 100 percent. West Palm Beach fell the most of any metro Redfin listed, to 65 percent from 81 percent.

The cost side explains part of the hesitation. Redfin put the median monthly mortgage payment at $2,641 in the four weeks ending September 6, a 14-month high and 2.8 percent above a year earlier, with pending sales down 2.1 percent from a year ago.

Sellers in Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville are competing for a buyer pool that tells surveyors it expects its finances to get worse. Current statewide figures are tracked on the Florida housing tracker.

What to watch this week

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15 and 16, with its statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET and a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Florida Realtors publishes August statewide housing statistics on Wednesday. The National Association of Home Builders publishes its September builder confidence index Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET, the Census Bureau publishes August housing starts and building permits Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and BLS publishes state employment and unemployment for August on Friday at 10 a.m. ET.

Limitations

These are preliminary figures and are subject to revision on September 25. The Surveys of Consumers is a national telephone and web survey with a monthly sample in the hundreds, so month-to-month movements carry sampling error that the university does not publish alongside the headline indices. The survey reports no state or metropolitan detail, so nothing here measures Florida sentiment. Inflation expectations are stated beliefs and are not a forecast of measured inflation. The Redfin and Freddie Mac figures cited for context come from separate publishers with separate methods and reference periods, and no causal link between sentiment readings and Florida transaction counts is established by any of these releases.

Sources

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, preliminary results for September 2026, released September 11, 2026, sca.isr.umich.edu. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for August 2026, released September 11, 2026, and Producer Price Index for August 2026, released September 10, 2026. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending September 10, 2026. Redfin, August 2026 buyers and sellers analysis released September 10, 2026, and weekly housing market data for the four weeks ending September 6, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.