Market Brief

Mortgage rates are back where they were before the Fed hiked, the 10-year is under 5 percent again as oil slides, and two Fed presidents spent Monday explaining why a second increase this year is on the table.

MND 30-year 7.19% on Sept 21, back to pre-Fed pricing. 10-year 4.95%. Goolsbee and Collins back more hikes; CME odds 53% for October. KB Home reports Tues.

The Monday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, three business days after the Federal Reserve's first increase since 2023. Thursday's September 17 brief carried the hike, the dot plot and Lennar's release; this one covers what happened after: the Freddie Mac print, the August housing starts and pending sales data, Lennar's earnings call, Friday's bond selloff, and Monday's Fed speak and oil move.

Mortgage rates: 7.19 percent, back to pre-hike levels

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Monday, September 21, at 7.19 percent, down 1 basis point from Friday. The 15-year was 6.83 percent, jumbo 7.35 percent, FHA 6.81 percent, VA 6.83 percent, and the 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.74 percent. MND's Matthew Graham called it "a fairly uneventful day" and credited the small improvement to lower oil prices; the key line was that "the average lender remains right in line with the rates they offered before last week's Fed rate hike." The path from our last brief: 7.24 percent at the September 16 close, lower Thursday (MND's headline was "Mortgage Rates Back Near Lows of The Week"), 7.20 percent Friday, 7.19 percent Monday. The 52-week high remains 7.24 percent and the 52-week low 5.99 percent.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which had not posted when Thursday's brief went out, came in at 6.95 percent for the week ending September 17, up 19 basis points from 6.76 percent and the highest reading of the past 52 weeks; a year earlier it was 6.26 percent. The 15-year averaged 6.26 percent, up from 6.09. Chief Economist Sam Khater said the 30-year "continues to fluctuate as markets assess economic data." Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average for a 30-year conventional loan was 7.090 percent Monday, up 12 basis points on the week, with FHA at 6.526 percent and VA at 6.612 percent. Redfin's seasonally adjusted median monthly payment for the four weeks ending September 13 was $2,633 at a 6.76 percent rate, up 3.4 percent from a year earlier; at 7.19 percent that figure would be higher, and Redfin's next weekly update will reflect it.

The 10-year: under 5 percent again, Friday's selloff unexplained

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Monday at 4.953 percent on MND's table, down 4 basis points. Benzinga's Monday read had the 10-year at 4.95 percent, the 2-year at 4.729 percent (down about 1 basis point) and the 30-year at 5.306 percent (down 3). The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF closed Friday at $81.25, per Benzinga the lowest weekly close since the fund launched in 2002.

Friday was the odd day. MND's closing note was headlined "Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today?": bonds "sold off medium big" with the 10-year up 6 basis points to 4.993 percent, and Graham pointed to reports of "rate checks" in the dollar-yen market, which can precede sales of U.S. bonds to buy yen, while stressing that no intervention was reported and "we're not sure it does" explain the move. His takeaway was that the 10-year held under 5 percent, "right where they were on the Tuesday afternoon before Fed day." Friday's data was firm: initial jobless claims 196,000 against a 208,000 forecast, the Philadelphia Fed index 37.8 against 30.5 expected, and Philly Fed prices paid up to 48.6 from 40.9. Lenders had held back on Thursday's rally, so Friday's mortgage rates rose only 1 basis point despite the bond losses.

Oil did the work Monday. Reuters reported Sunday evening that Brent had risen to $104.68 and WTI to $101.06 after Houthi missile and drone strikes on Riyadh on Saturday. By Monday's close CNBC's headline had U.S. crude back below $100 after President Trump said he was open to talking with Iran at the U.N. this week; we could read only the headline, not the story, so we do not carry a closing figure from it. The Yahoo Finance ticker showed the November WTI contract at $95.76 after the close. MND's morning note was titled "Stronger Start as Oil Continues Lower."

Fed speak: Goolsbee says it will be "painful," Collins penciled in a second hike

Two regional Fed presidents spoke Monday, and both leaned toward more tightening. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, at an OMFIF event in London, said supply shocks from the Iran war and tariffs have proved more persistent than the Fed assumed and that "the only way to bring inflation down is to raise rates and narrow the gap between supply and demand," per the AP. Asked by reporters, he said it would "necessarily be painful," and that if inflation is coming from demand rather than supply, one more hike "likely would not be enough." He flagged AI data-center investment as a possible demand source. That is a sharper line than Chair Warsh's from Wednesday, when he said "I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective."

Boston Fed President Susan Collins told the AP she supported last week's hike because "I did not see the inflation progress I was hoping to see," that she penciled in a second increase for later this year, and that she expects rates to stay unchanged next year. Neither Goolsbee nor Collins votes this year. CME FedWatch had a 53 percent probability of another quarter-point increase at the October 27 to 28 meeting, per Benzinga Monday morning. The rest of the week's Fed calendar, per a weekly economic calendar we read: Jefferson Tuesday at the Treasury Market Conference, Barr Wednesday at a housing-affordability summit, Hammack Thursday and Friday at an inflation conference, Paulson Thursday.

Inflation context: Benzinga cited August inflation at 3.4 percent. The Fed's median projection from September 16 has core PCE not reaching 2 percent until 2029, and 12 of 18 participants expect at least one more hike this year, with four expecting two, per Benzinga's count; Thursday's brief carried both that count and CNBC's 16 of 18.

Housing starts: single-family up 7.6 percent in August, permits down

The Census Bureau's August residential construction report, released Thursday, September 17, had total housing starts at a 1,275,000 annual rate, down 2.6 percent from a revised 1,309,000 in July and 1.2 percent below August 2025. The headline miss (1.31 million was the forecast, per MND) masked a split: single-family starts rose 7.6 percent to 918,000, up 5.2 percent from a year earlier, while multifamily fell. Permits were 1,394,000, down 2.7 percent on the month but 3.5 percent above a year ago; single-family permits fell 1.8 percent to 878,000. MND's summary was "More Mixed Results in Residential Construction Report." The July starts figure we carried Thursday (1,239,000) was revised up to 1,309,000, which changes the July story from a 12.4 percent drop to something much smaller; our July starts article reflects the original print.

Pending sales: NAR up 0.3 percent with the South leading, Redfin's weekly count at a three-year low

Two pending-sales reads landed since Thursday and they point different directions on the surface. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index for August, published Thursday, rose 0.3 percent from July and was down 4.7 percent from a year earlier, per MND's Friday summary. The South rose 2.3 percent on the month (down 3.8 percent on the year), the West rose 3.0 percent, the Northeast fell 4.2 percent and the Midwest fell 1.6 percent. Lawrence Yun said income growth has outpaced home-price growth but that borrowing costs are limiting the resulting gain in buying power; pending sales remain roughly 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels.

Redfin's weekly report, published September 17 for the four weeks ending September 13, had seasonally adjusted pending sales at 299,126, down 3.5 percent week over week and 5.4 percent year over year, "the lowest level in nearly 3 years." New listings were 363,298 (up 1.5 percent on the year), active listings 1,497,731 (up 1.5 percent), months of supply 4.1, median days on market 46, and 20.8 percent of listings carried a price drop. The Florida detail is the useful part: the three metros with the largest year-over-year gains in pending sales among the 50 largest were Fort Lauderdale (+6.6 percent), Miami (+4.0 percent) and West Palm Beach (+3.8 percent), against declines of 13 to 20 percent in Seattle, Denver, San Diego, Atlanta and Houston. The two series are not in conflict: NAR is a monthly seasonally adjusted index, Redfin is a rolling four-week count that captures the September rate spike NAR's August data does not.

Existing-home sales: 3.98 million, inventory 1.62 million, both dated September 10

For readers expecting the August existing-home sales report this week: NAR published it on September 10, earlier than its usual cadence, and it is not on this week's calendar. Sales fell 2.0 percent on the month and 1.2 percent on the year to a 3.98 million annual rate, the first sub-4 million print since June 2025. Inventory rose to 1.62 million units, up 3.2 percent on the month and 5.9 percent on the year, the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019, and months' supply reached 4.9, the highest in more than ten years. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6 percent, the 38th straight annual gain. In the South, sales were unchanged from a year earlier and the median was $366,500, up 0.7 percent. Cash was 27 percent of transactions, first-time buyers 30 percent, distressed sales 2 percent. The figures are eleven days old and are included for reference, not as this week's news.

Lennar's call: resale sellers are "a more aggressive competitor" in Florida

Lennar's Thursday earnings call added the Florida detail that Wednesday's release left out. Stuart Miller said that at the June call the 30-year rate was 6.4 to 6.5 percent and "today, it is at approximately 7% with the 10-year treasury hovering right around 5%," that "the buyer at median family income is stretching well past 30% of gross income to carry a home," and that in many markets "almost 50% of our visitors cannot immediately qualify." On resale competition: "Active listings nationally are back above historic levels. In Texas and in Florida, they are particularly high. Those are our 2 largest markets and states." He said that when a resale seller cuts price, "they are competing directly for our customer, and we respond," and described that as "a meaningful part of the incentive and pricing dynamic you see in our South Central and Southeast markets."

Asked whether the Florida and Texas resale comment was new, Miller called it "part of a broader narrative" the company fights daily; David Grove said resale sellers "as the days on market increases" are "willing to compromise their sales price more," and Jim Parker argued it is not all negative because more resale activity produces more move-up prospects. Miller said Lennar will not "carry standing homes into a soft market," that cycle times hit a record-low 116 days, that 98 percent of homesites are under option, and that "the Federal Reserve's assistance is clearly off the table for practical purposes." Incentives on deliveries were 12 percent, down from the prior quarter, and Grove said rising rates could pressure that number through the cost of rate buydowns.

This week: KB Home Tuesday, MBA applications Wednesday, new home sales Thursday

KB Home reports its fiscal third quarter after the close Tuesday, September 22, with a 5:00 p.m. Eastern call; consensus is about $0.90 a share against $1.61 a year earlier, per Alphastreet's preview. KB Home's Southeast segment includes Florida. The MBA's weekly applications survey is Wednesday (last week: total applications down 4.1 percent, purchase applications 19 percent below a year earlier on an unadjusted basis). Thursday brings Freddie Mac's next PMMS at noon and the Census Bureau's August new-home sales at 10:00 a.m.; the weekly calendar we read singled out new-home sales as the most useful read on how tighter financial conditions are landing. Friday is durable goods and the final September University of Michigan sentiment reading (preliminary: 47.8, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6 percent). Next week: JOLTS and Conference Board confidence Tuesday, September 29; PCE inflation Wednesday, September 30; the September jobs report Friday, October 2.

Florida insurance: no new dated Citizens count; the 270,000 and 336,000 figures still stand

Nothing with a September 14 or later date changed the Citizens Property Insurance picture. Thursday's brief carried two policy counts, roughly 270,000 per Insurance Business (September 4, citing a Citizens spokesperson) and roughly 336,000 per the 2026 rate kit, and we continue to carry both. A search this week surfaced a figure of 768,926 policies "as of September 19," but the page could not be read and the number matches Citizens' late-2025 level rather than either 2026 count, so we treat it as undated and do not rely on it. The Office of Insurance Regulation's approved 2026 Citizens rates, an 8.7 percent statewide average decrease with cuts of 14.1 percent in Broward, 14.0 percent in Miami-Dade and 11.9 percent in Palm Beach, took effect July 1 for new policies and apply at renewal for existing ones, per coverage we read; our August insurance piece has the county detail. On condos, the HB 913 framework is unchanged: the 2026 reserve-item threshold set by DBPR is $25,675, SIRS-based reserve funding begins January 1, 2027, and Fannie Mae stopped accepting baseline reserve funding on August 3, 2026, per the compliance summaries we read. No new enforcement action carried a date this week.

What this means for Northeast Florida

A Jacksonville buyer quoting a rate today is looking at the same number as the morning before the Fed hiked, about 7.2 percent on MND's index, and the Fed's next decision is a coin flip at 53 percent for October. Two things changed underneath that. First, the largest builder in the state said on the record that Florida resale inventory is "particularly high" and that it cuts price and adds incentives when resale sellers do; that is the trade a new-construction shopper here should be pricing, and our August buyer's-market piece has the concession data. Second, Redfin's four-week count shows South Florida's three big metros leading the country in pending-sales growth while national pending sales sit at a three-year low; Jacksonville is not in that top group, and our own realMLS series for August (median price, closed sales) is the local read. The 2026 Jacksonville market page and the Jacksonville data hub carry the running series. Tuesday's brief will have KB Home's Florida commentary.

What we are not saying

We are not forecasting the October decision; we report the 53 percent CME figure Benzinga cited Monday morning and the two Fed presidents' own words. We do not carry a closing oil price from CNBC because we could read only its headline; the $95.76 figure is the Yahoo Finance ticker for the November contract, and the $101.06 figure is Reuters from Sunday evening. The 768,926 Citizens count is flagged, not used. The July housing-starts revision (1,239,000 to 1,309,000) means our July article's 12.4 percent decline is now stale, and we say so rather than quietly dropping it. Every figure carries its source and date; the weekly and monthly series (Freddie Mac, MBA, NAR, Census) lag the daily indexes.

People also ask

What is the mortgage rate on September 21, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed September 21 at 7.19 percent, down 1 basis point from Friday and in line with pricing before the Fed's September 16 rate increase. Freddie Mac's weekly survey for September 17 was 6.95 percent, up from 6.76 percent, and Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average was 7.09 percent.

Will the Fed raise rates again in October 2026?

CME FedWatch put the probability of another quarter-point increase at the October 27 to 28 meeting at 53 percent on September 21, per Benzinga. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that one more hike "likely would not be enough" if inflation is demand-driven, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she penciled in a second increase this year. Neither votes in 2026.

Did existing-home sales come out this week?

No. NAR released the August existing-home sales report on September 10: sales fell 2.0 percent to a 3.98 million annual rate, inventory rose to 1.62 million units, and months' supply reached 4.9, the highest in more than ten years. The August pending home sales index, released September 17, rose 0.3 percent with the South up 2.3 percent.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, "Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Start New Week", September 21, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09212026
• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index and Treasury table (September 21 close): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, "Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Losses", September 18, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09182026
• Mortgage News Daily, "Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today?", September 18, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09182026
• Mortgage News Daily, "Pending Sales Rebound Slightly as Regional Results Diverge", September 18, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/09182026-pending-home-sales
• Freddie Mac, "Mortgage Rates Average 6.95%", September 17, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/17/3364253/0/en/mortgage-rates-average-6-95.html
• Fortune, "Mortgage rates today, Sept. 21, 2026: Rates tick up again", September 21, 2026: https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-09-21-2026/
• Redfin, "Pending Home Sales Dip to Lowest Level in Nearly 3 Years", September 17, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-lowest-level-since-2023/
• Benzinga, "Goolsbee Warns On Inflation, October Hike Odds Stay Above 50%", September 21, 2026: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/09/61894102/goolsbee-inflation-warning-october-rate-hike-odds-treasury-yields-fall-oil
• Associated Press via WPLG, "Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike", September 21, 2026: https://www.local10.com/business/2026/09/21/federal-reserve-official-says-iran-war-pushed-her-toward-supporting-rate-hike/
• U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, August 2026 (September 17, 2026): https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html
• National Association of Realtors, "NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Decrease in August", September 10, 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-decrease-in-august
• The Motley Fool, Lennar (LEN) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, September 17, 2026: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/09/17/lennar-len-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/
• Alphastreet, "KB Home (KBH) Q3 2026 Preview: EPS Est. $0.90, Reports September 22": https://news.alphastreet.com/kb-home-kbh-q3-2026-preview-eps-est-0-90-reports-september-22/
• Reuters via Yahoo Finance, "Oil rises after Houthi attack on Saudi capital", September 20, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/oil-rises-houthi-attack-saudi-221210416.html
• CNBC, "U.S. crude oil tumbles back below $100 after Trump says he's open to talking to Iran at UN", September 21, 2026 (headline only; story not read): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/21/iran-us-oil-prices-crude-saudi-arabia-.html
• Letters to a Young Investor, "Weekly Economic Calendar: September 21-25, 2026", September 20, 2026: https://letterstoayounginvestor.substack.com/p/weekly-economic-calendar-september-a9f
• Insurance Business, "Citizens cuts policy count to 270,000 amid non-renewal push", September 4, 2026: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/citizens-cuts-policy-count-to-270000-amid-nonrenewal-push-588731.aspx
• Citizens Property Insurance, 2026 rate kit: https://www.citizensfla.com/documents/20702/35182283/2026+Rate+Kit.pdf/a9199889-6745-3479-f061-6a6983f3d373?t=1765383355156
• FPAT, "Florida SIRS Requirements 2026: Reserves & HB 913 Guide": https://fpat.com/florida-sirs-reserve-study-costs-hb-913/

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.