Data Analysis

The average price of a new house sold in September 2026 was $472,800, down 6.7 percent from a year earlier, one of only two changes in the Census Bureau release large enough to clear its own margin of error.

New home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September, down 0.6 percent from August and 5.3 percent from a year earlier. Neither change is statistically significant.

The average sales price of a new house sold in the United States in September 2026 was $472,800, down 6.7 percent (plus or minus 6.6 percent) from September 2025. Sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, down 0.6 percent from a revised 680,000 in August and down 5.3 percent from 714,000 a year earlier. The median price was $400,400. There were 476,000 new houses for sale at the end of September, an 8.4-month supply. The Census Bureau and HUD published the figures on October 27 in release CB26-174.

Of the eight percent changes in the release's headline figures, six carry a confidence interval that includes zero. The two that do not are the annual decline in the average price and the monthly decline in homes for sale.

Did new home sales fall in September 2026?

The point estimate fell, but the Census Bureau's own margin of error says the change cannot be told apart from zero. Sales were down 0.6 percent from August, plus or minus 13.8 percent, and down 5.3 percent from a year earlier, plus or minus 12.5 percent. Census marks both with an asterisk, which its footnote defines as a change where "there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero."

August itself was revised. Census first published August sales at 684,000 on September 24. The October 27 release puts August at 680,000. That 4,000-unit revision is the same size as the 4,000-unit difference between August and September, so the whole monthly decline could disappear in the next revision.

Are new home prices falling?

The average price is, by a margin Census treats as real. At $472,800 it was 6.7 percent below September 2025's $506,800, with a 90 percent confidence interval of plus or minus 6.6 percent. The interval runs from a 13.3 percent decline to a 0.1 percent decline. It stops just short of zero, so the direction is established while the size is not.

This is the second month in a row that the average price decline has cleared its interval. In the August release, as first published, the average price was down 8.8 percent, plus or minus 7.7 percent. We covered that release in our August new home sales report.

The median tells a quieter version. At $400,400 the median was 3.9 percent below September 2025's $416,800, plus or minus 8.9 percent, and 3.9 percent above August's revised $385,400, plus or minus 6.2 percent. Neither median change is significant. August's median was also revised down, from the $393,700 first published to $385,400.

When the average falls further than the median, the usual reading is fewer sales at the top of the price range. The release does not break September sales out by price band in the figures this desk read, so that explanation is a reasonable inference rather than a finding.

How many new homes are for sale?

Census estimated 476,000 new houses for sale at the end of September, down 1.0 percent from 481,000 in August, plus or minus 0.9 percent. That is the second change in the release that clears its margin of error, and it clears it by a tenth of a point. Inventory was down 2.3 percent from a year earlier, plus or minus 4.0 percent, which is not significant.

At September's sales pace, that inventory equals 8.4 months of supply, against 8.5 months in August and 8.2 months a year earlier. Neither change in months' supply is significant.

What does this mean for Florida?

Florida sits in the Census South region, the largest new home market in the country; in the August release as first published, the South made up 451,000 of 684,000 annualized sales. Local MLS data points the same way as the national average price. In our analysis of Stellar MLS records, Hillsborough County new-construction closings fell 21.9 percent in the first nine months of 2026, as reported in our Tampa new construction report. On the supply side, the Census construction release showed South completions down 21.3 percent from a year earlier in September, covered in our housing starts report.

Buyers weighing a new home against a resale should compare effective prices after incentives, not list prices. Current conditions by metro are on our market index, and statewide figures on the Florida housing tracker. Mortgage rates, which builders often buy down, were 7.32 percent on October 22 per Freddie Mac, covered in our mortgage rate report.

People also ask

How many new homes sold in September 2026?

New single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September 2026, according to the Census Bureau and HUD. That was 0.6 percent below August and 5.3 percent below September 2025; neither change is statistically significant.

What was the median new home price in September 2026?

The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2026 was $400,400. The average was $472,800, down 6.7 percent from a year earlier.

How many months of new home supply are there?

At the end of September 2026 there were 476,000 new houses for sale, equal to 8.4 months of supply at the current sales rate.

When is the next new home sales report?

The Census Bureau's economic indicator calendar lists the October 2026 New Residential Sales release for November 25, 2026.

Limitations

All figures come from the Census Bureau's current New Residential Sales release page for September 2026, read on October 27. The regional table in the release PDF was not readable by our fetcher at publication time (it returned the August release), so this article gives no September figure for the South region; the South share cited is from the August release as first published. Census revises preliminary sales by about 6.7 percent on average, so September's 676,000 is likely to change.

New home sales are counted when a contract is signed or a deposit taken, not at closing, so they lead the closed-sale data in Florida Realtors and Case-Shiller reports. The interval endpoints, revision comparisons and the inference about high-end sales are Momentum Research's arithmetic and reading of published figures, not statements by Census. A long-run sales history chart was not built because the public series mirror the desk uses for history was unreachable from our systems today; the chart above uses only the release's own figures.

Sources

U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, "Monthly New Residential Sales, September 2026," release CB26-174, October 27, 2026.

U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, "Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2026," release CB26-155, September 24, 2026.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 22, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.