Data Analysis

The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment was 48.0 in October 2026, a tenth of a point below September and 10.4 percent below a year earlier, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent.

Final October readings revised sentiment up from a preliminary 46.3. Views of current conditions fell 8.3 percent as buying conditions for big-ticket items sank.

The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment was 48.0 in October 2026, down 0.2 percent from 48.1 in September and 10.4 percent below 53.6 in October 2025. The index of current economic conditions fell 8.3 percent to 46.7, while the index of consumer expectations rose 5.4 percent to 48.8. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent, and long-run expectations rose to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent. The Surveys of Consumers published the final October results on Friday, October 23, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET.

What did the University of Michigan report for October?

The Surveys of Consumers publishes a preliminary reading in the middle of each month and a final reading near the end. The preliminary October figures, released earlier in the month, put sentiment at 46.3. The final reading revised that up to 48.0, which leaves the index almost exactly where it ended September.

The two halves of the survey moved in opposite directions. The current conditions index, which asks about personal finances now and whether this is a good time to buy major household items, dropped from 50.9 in September to 46.7. That is 20.3 percent below its October 2025 reading of 58.6. The expectations index, which asks about the year ahead and the next five years, rose from 46.3 to 48.8, though it is still 3.0 percent below its year-ago reading of 50.3. All three indices are set against a 1966 base of 100.

The preliminary October release had current conditions at 44.7 and expectations at 47.3, so both were revised up in the final numbers. The inflation expectations readings did not change between the preliminary and final releases.

Why did views of current conditions fall?

Joanne Hsu, the program's director, wrote that the entire decline in the current conditions index came from buying conditions for durable goods, which fell 18 percent in October. Respondents cited higher interest rates and affordability. Durable goods are big-ticket items such as cars, appliances and furniture, the purchases most often financed and most sensitive to borrowing costs.

Hsu also wrote that sentiment was nearly flat overall, with gains among Republicans and Democrats offsetting a decline among independents. Year-ahead expectations for business conditions improved about 14 percent in October, though they remain 16 percent below a year ago. She wrote that purchasing power continues to dominate how consumers view the economy, and that sentiment is now 10 percent below a year ago and 15 percent below February, just before the Iran conflict began.

What are consumers expecting for inflation?

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent in October from 4.6 percent in September. The university notes that this is well above the 3.4 percent reading in February, before the Iran conflict, and above every 2024 reading. Long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent, above the 2.8 to 3.2 percent range that held throughout 2024. Both measures have risen for two straight months and are at their highest levels since May.

Expectations are stated beliefs, not measured prices. The measured numbers point the same way, though. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 14 that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6 percent in September and 3.7 percent over the prior 12 months, with energy up 20.4 percent and gasoline up 34.2 percent over the year. Our September CPI article covers that release in detail.

How does the survey connect to mortgage rates?

The durable goods result is the survey's clearest link to housing, because it measures how households feel about making large financed purchases. Mortgage rates are near their highest levels in about three years. Freddie Mac's survey released October 22 put the 30-year fixed-rate average at 7.32 percent, down from 7.40 percent the prior two weeks and up from 6.19 percent a year earlier. Our October 22 mortgage rate article covers the weekly survey.

Contract signings have already slowed. The National Association of Realtors reported on October 20 that its Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3 percent in September from August and 11.3 percent from a year earlier, and its chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the drop to fast-rising mortgage rates. The South, the region that includes Florida, fell 8.2 percent over the month. That release is covered in our pending home sales article.

What does weak sentiment mean for Florida's housing market?

The Surveys of Consumers does not publish state or metropolitan results, so none of these figures measure Florida directly. What the survey describes is the mood of the national buyer pool, which includes the out-of-state buyers who make up a large share of demand in many Florida markets.

Florida's own September numbers show a market that has cooled without a price break. Florida Realtors reported on October 16 that statewide single-family closed sales fell 3.5 percent from a year earlier to 20,537, while the median sale price held at $415,000, up 1.2 percent. New pending single-family sales fell 7.6 percent, which points to softer closings in October and November. Our Florida housing market September report has the full statewide figures, and local series are on the Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville market pages and the Florida housing tracker.

A buyer pool that rates current buying conditions poorly and expects 4.7 percent inflation over the next year is a buyer pool that negotiates. That reading comes from the survey's direction alone; no Florida transaction is measured here.

What to watch next week

S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices on Tuesday, October 27, at 9 a.m. ET, including Miami and Tampa. The Census Bureau publishes September new home sales the same morning at 10 a.m., and the Conference Board publishes its October consumer confidence index at 10 a.m. ET. On Wednesday, October 28, the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting, and BLS publishes metropolitan area employment for September. On Thursday, October 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays, and Freddie Mac publishes its weekly mortgage rate survey.

Jon Brooks on what this reading means for Florida housing: Will Florida Home Prices Drop? Watch Contracts, Not Prices.

People also ask

What is the consumer sentiment index for October 2026?

The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment for October 2026 was 48.0, down from 48.1 in September and 53.6 in October 2025. The preliminary October reading had been 46.3.

What are inflation expectations in October 2026?

Year-ahead inflation expectations were 4.7 percent in the final October survey, up from 4.6 percent in September. Long-run expectations were 3.5 percent, up from 3.4 percent.

Why did consumer sentiment's current conditions index fall?

The director of the Surveys of Consumers wrote that the entire decline came from buying conditions for durable goods, which fell 18 percent, with consumers citing higher interest rates and affordability.

Does the University of Michigan survey measure Florida consumers?

No. The survey is national and does not publish state or metropolitan results, so it describes the national buyer pool rather than Florida specifically.

Limitations

The Surveys of Consumers is a national survey with a monthly sample in the hundreds, and the university does not publish margins of error next to the headline indices, so small month-to-month moves such as the 0.1 point change in sentiment may not be meaningful. The survey reports no state or metro detail. Inflation expectations are what respondents say they anticipate and are not a forecast of measured inflation. The Freddie Mac, BLS, NAR and Florida Realtors figures cited for context come from separate publishers with separate methods and reference periods, and none of these releases establishes a causal link between sentiment and Florida home sales. The chart's history through September comes from the university's monthly final readings as published in the FRED database.

Sources

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, final results for October 2026, released October 23, 2026, and preliminary results for October 2026, sca.isr.umich.edu. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for September 2026, released October 14, 2026. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released October 22, 2026. National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales for September 2026, released October 20, 2026. Florida Realtors, September 2026 statewide housing data, released October 16, 2026. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED series UMCSENT.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.