Data Analysis

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3 percent in September 2026 to 66.0, and was 11.3 percent below a year earlier, with the South, which includes Florida, down 8.2 percent over the month.

NAR reported on October 20 that contract signings fell in all four regions. Chief economist Lawrence Yun blamed fast-rising mortgage rates.

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3 percent in September 2026 from August, to a reading of 66.0, and was 11.3 percent lower than in September 2025, NAR reported on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Every region declined over the month and over the year. The South, the region that includes Florida, fell 8.2 percent from August and 12.0 percent from a year earlier. The West had the steepest declines, down 9.2 percent over the month and 15.0 percent over the year. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates.

What are pending home sales?

The Pending Home Sales Index measures signed contracts on existing homes, meaning single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops that have previously been owned. A sale is counted as pending when the contract is signed and before it closes, which usually takes one to two months. That makes the index a leading indicator for existing-home sales in the following one to two months. An index reading of 100 equals the average level of contract activity in 2001.

How much did pending home sales fall in September 2026?

The national index fell 7.3 percent from August to 66.0. In August, NAR had reported a 0.3 percent monthly gain and a 4.7 percent decline from a year earlier, as covered in our August pending home sales article. September's 11.3 percent year-over-year decline is more than twice the August gap.

By region, NAR reported:

• Northeast: down 4.2 percent from August and 9.4 percent from September 2025.
• Midwest: down 6.5 percent from August and 8.7 percent from a year earlier.
• South: down 8.2 percent from August and 12.0 percent from a year earlier.
• West: down 9.2 percent from August and 15.0 percent from a year earlier.

NAR's release gave percent changes for the regions without regional index levels.

Why did pending home sales drop?

Yun attributed the decline to mortgage rates. He said housing affordability is more affected by changes in mortgage rates than by job growth and income gains, and that buyers and sellers may be holding back until rates move favorably. He also said mortgage rates could be topping out, while noting that rising energy prices and the inflationary pressure that follows are highly uncertain.

The rate path supports that reading. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed-rate average rose through September and reached 7.40 percent in the week ending October 8, the highest since November 2023. It held there on October 15 and eased to 7.32 percent on October 22, against 6.19 percent a year earlier. Our mortgage rate article covers the weekly survey, and the September CPI article covers the 3.7 percent inflation reading and 20.4 percent rise in energy prices behind the rate pressure.

What does it mean for Florida?

NAR's pending sales report has no state detail, but Florida's own data shows the same contract slowdown. Florida Realtors reported on October 16 that new pending single-family sales in Florida fell 7.6 percent in September from a year earlier, to 19,809 from 21,431. Statewide single-family closed sales fell 3.5 percent to 20,537, while the median sale price held at $415,000, up 1.2 percent. Our Florida housing market September report has the full statewide release.

The national closed-sales picture for September was firmer. NAR reported that existing-home sales rose 1.5 percent in September, and that sales in the South rose 2.8 percent from August, as covered in our existing-home sales article. Closed sales in September mostly reflect contracts signed in July and August, when rates were lower. The September contract drop is more likely to show up in October and November closings.

For Florida buyers, fewer competing contracts can mean more room to negotiate on price, concessions and closing costs. For sellers, it means a thinner pool of buyers who are qualifying at higher rates. Local contract and listing data are on the Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville market pages and the Florida housing tracker.

What comes next?

NAR publishes Metro Home Prices for the third quarter on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET, including Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. October pending home sales and existing-home sales follow in November. The Census Bureau publishes September new home sales on Tuesday, October 27.

People also ask

Did pending home sales go down in September 2026?

Yes. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3 percent from August to 66.0 and was 11.3 percent below September 2025.

How did pending home sales do in the South in September 2026?

Pending home sales in the South, which includes Florida, fell 8.2 percent from August and 12.0 percent from September 2025.

Why did pending home sales fall?

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the September decline to fast-rising mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's 30-year average reached 7.40 percent in early October.

Are Florida pending sales down too?

Yes. Florida Realtors reported that new pending single-family sales in Florida fell 7.6 percent year over year in September 2026, to 19,809.

Limitations

The Pending Home Sales Index is based on a large sample of contract signings and is revised in later months; NAR does not publish a margin of error. The index level of 66.0 is taken from NAR's own release graphic, and the release gave no regional index levels. The index has no state or metro detail, so the South figures include many states besides Florida. Florida Realtors counts new pending sales differently and is not directly comparable with NAR's index. No historical chart is shown because the index series is published by NAR rather than in a public time-series database. Rate and inflation figures come from other publishers.

Sources

National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales for September 2026, released October 20, 2026, nar.realtor. National Association of Realtors, Existing-Home Sales for September 2026. Florida Realtors, September 2026 statewide housing data, released October 16, 2026. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weeks ending October 8, October 15 and October 22, 2026. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for September 2026, released October 14, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.