Valrico
Housing Market
Median sale price $424,900, down 2.6% year over year, with homes going under contract in about 33 days, 200 homes on the market.
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Housing Market Analyst
Inventory sits at 2.7 months of supply — tight by the 3-to-6-month balanced benchmark, and 32% of listed homes are already under contract. Prices are down 2.6% versus the prior year, but sellers are still collecting 97.0% of asking. Taken together, the data points to a seller-leaning market.
Who has leverage right now
Leverage scores are derived from the Momentum Score (supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend). Right now the data favors sellers.
- Prices — more likely to stabilize than fall sharply. Supply remains below balanced levels even as prices soften; without a meaningful inventory build, further declines tend to be shallow.
- Inventory — building over the tracked window; watch whether that holds through the season.
- Negotiating power — sellers hold the leverage while 32% of inventory sits under contract.
- Mortgage sensitivity — at 5.0× income, this market is highly sensitive to rate moves; rate relief tends to show up in demand here quickly.
Derived from current Valrico data, not a prediction or guarantee. Markets move; talk to an agent before acting on any single reading.
One inventory number hides four different markets
Months of supply = active listings ÷ monthly sales pace, bucketing communities by their recent median. 3–6 months is the balanced band.
Where Valrico is hot — and where it isn't
Each dot is a community (111 shown, sized by sales volume rank). Click any dot to open its full neighborhood guide.
The read on Valrico
The median sale price across Valrico currently stands at $424,900, down 2.6% from a year ago. Buyers are paying a median of $214 per square foot. The typical home goes under contract in about 33 days. Sellers are capturing 97.0% of their original asking price on average.
There are 200 active listings on the market, with 27 more already under contract. At the current sales pace that works out to 2.7 months of supply — a seller-leaning market by the standard six-month benchmark. 458 homes closed here over the trailing 12 months.
Valrico prices sit above the Hillsborough County median by roughly 6%. Zillow's home value index for Hillsborough County stands at $375,501. About 33% of listings county-wide have taken a price cut — a useful gauge of seller flexibility.
Weighing supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend together, the Momentum Score for Valrico is 68 of 100 — healthy market territory. This page recalculates every day as new MLS data lands, so the numbers above reflect the market as of October 26, 2026.
Valrico since 2012 — and where it’s heading
A median home here sold for $161,438 in 2012 and $445,315 over the last recorded year — 176% appreciation across 14 years of recorded sales. Cash buyers took 21% of recent sales, down from a 40% peak.
Median sale price · 2012–2026 (7,589 recorded sales)
Days on market by year
Cash buyers · share of sales
Home value trend · Hillsborough County (Zillow ZHVI)
For-sale inventory · county (Zillow)
Daily active vs pending · Hillsborough County (MLS)
Median price · daily recalculation
What’s driving Valrico
Top inbound states: NY, TX, NJ, GA. Movers arriving report ~$77,979 average income. Source: IRS SOI county-to-county migration, 2022-2023
6,518 Citizens policies in force in Hillsborough County — the state-backed insurer of last resort. Budget insurance into any Hillsborough purchase before you fall in love with a house. Source: Citizens Property Insurance, Detail by County, April 2026
4,295 single-family · 4,401 multi-family · 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Future supply pressure starts here. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2025
The calls we’re making from today’s data
The sharpest 1-yr median swing among tracked communities. Thin samples can exaggerate swings — verify with a comp analysis before treating it as trend.
The most crowded shelf in the market. Sellers here are competing hardest — which means overpaying in this band is the most avoidable mistake in Valrico right now.
The tightest band — sellers in this range hold the most leverage, and buyers should walk in with financing done and terms clean.
Sellers: price to the last 60 days of comps, not the peak — well-prepared listings are still commanding strong terms. Buyers: get underwritten now so you can move when the right house hits.
Generated from today’s data by Momentum’s analysis engine and reviewed on a rolling basis by our broker team.
How it stacks up across Hillsborough County
| Market | Median | Active | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valrico ← this page | $425K | 78 | 68 | |
| Tampa | $430K | 1,363 | 60 | Open → |
| Riverview | $362K | 420 | 56 | Open → |
| Wimauma | $360K | 175 | 59 | Open → |
| Sun City Center | $296K | 153 | 50 | Open → |
| Ruskin | $322K | 148 | 48 | Open → |
Neighborhoods on the move
| DIAMOND HILL PH 1A UNIT 2Valrico | $450K | ▲ 7% |
| bloomingdale sec nValrico | $406K | ▲ 6% |
| Diamond Hill Ph 2Valrico | $436K | ▲ 5% |
| The Willows Unit 3Valrico | $375K | ▲ 5% |
| oakdale riverview estates un 2Valrico | $325K | ▲ 5% |
| buckhorn preserve ph 4Valrico | $380K | ▼ 16% |
| BRENTWOOD HILLS TR A UNIT 01Valrico | $335K | ▼ 13% |
| brentwood hills tr a unit 2Valrico | $324K | ▼ 13% |
| Copper Ridge Tr EValrico | $292K | ▼ 12% |
| SomersetValrico | $310K | ▼ 11% |
| River Hills Country Club ParceValrico | $537K | 11 |
| bloomingdale sec nValrico | $406K | 7 |
| buckhorn preserve ph 4Valrico | $380K | 5 |
| Bloomingdale Sec Aa Gg UniValrico | $580K | 4 |
| brentwood hills tr a unit 2Valrico | $324K | 4 |
| lakemont unit 2Valrico | $387K | 12 days |
| Taho WoodsValrico | $341K | 14 days |
| RIVER CROSSING ESTATESValrico | $484K | 16 days |
| BRENTWOOD HILLS TR A UNIT 01Valrico | $335K | 16 days |
| brentwood hills tr a unit 2Valrico | $324K | 18 days |
Valrico ZIP codes
Most active communities
More on Valrico
Put this data to work
The questions people actually ask
Should I buy a house in Valrico right now?
The data says conditions currently favor sellers in Valrico — the Momentum Score reads 68/100 with 2.7 months of supply. Buyers should come fully underwritten; sellers still set the pace here. The right timing always depends on your rate, your equity, and how long you plan to stay — not just the market.
Is Valrico becoming more affordable?
Yes, modestly — the median sale price in Valrico is $424,900, down 2.6% versus the prior year, while sellers still capture 97.0% of asking price. Softening prices plus normal-length marketing times mean affordability is improving at the margin, though financing costs matter more than list prices for most monthly payments.
Where are prices falling fastest in Valrico?
Among tracked communities with enough sales to measure, the sharpest 1-year median declines are buckhorn preserve ph 4 (-16%); BRENTWOOD HILLS TR A UNIT 01 (-13%); brentwood hills tr a unit 2 (-13%). Note that community-level medians move on small sale counts — a few high- or low-end closings can swing them — so treat these as leads for a comp analysis, not verdicts.
Which Valrico neighborhoods are most competitive?
Measured by speed of sale, the fastest-moving tracked communities right now are lakemont unit 2 (12 days); Taho Woods (14 days); RIVER CROSSING ESTATES (16 days) — homes there go under contract well ahead of the market-wide pace of 33 days.
How does Valrico compare to the rest of Hillsborough County?
Valrico's median of $424,900 runs 6% above the county-wide median of $399,900, and homes here take 33 days to go under contract versus 42 county-wide.
Valrico housing market FAQ
How is the housing market in Valrico right now?
As of October 26, 2026, the Valrico housing market favors sellers: the median sale price is $424,900 (down 2.6% year over year), 200 homes are for sale against 458 sales in the last 12 months, which is 2.7 months of supply, and the typical home goes under contract in about 33 days.
How much is a house in Valrico?
The median home sold for $424,900 in Valrico over the last 12 months, about $214 per square foot; asking prices on the 200 current listings run from well below to well above that, and the community pages linked below show what each neighborhood actually sells for.
Is it a good time to sell a house in Valrico?
By the numbers, sellers in Valrico are getting 97.0% of asking price and going under contract in about 33 days with 2.7 months of supply. Under four months of supply generally favors sellers; over six favors buyers. Whether it is a good time for you depends on what you paid and where you are going next, which is a conversation with an agent, not a chart.
What is the Valrico housing market forecast?
Momentum Realty publishes the recorded trend, not a prediction: Valrico median sale prices are down 2.6% year over year, inventory stands at 2.7 months of supply, and 32% of listings are under contract. The charts on this page update with every MLS refresh, so the direction shows up here before any forecast catches it.
What is the median home price in Valrico?
The median sale price in Valrico is currently $424,900, down 2.6% from a year ago, based on MLS sales data updated October 26, 2026.
Is Valrico a buyer's or seller's market right now?
The data currently favors sellers. Valrico scores 68 of 100 on the Momentum Score, with 2.7 months of housing supply. Conditions change; this page updates daily.
How long do homes take to sell in Valrico?
The typical home in Valrico goes under contract in about 33 days, per current MLS data.
How many homes are for sale in Valrico?
There are approximately 200 active listings in Valrico as of October 26, 2026.
Are home prices in Valrico rising or falling?
Median sale prices are down 2.6% year over year based on a rolling comparison of MLS sales.
Momentum agents use this intelligence every day to price listings and write winning offers across Valrico. Talk through what the numbers mean for your move.
Every number on this page is computed directly from licensed Florida MLS feeds, recorded public sales, Zillow Research, and U.S. Census data — nothing is manually adjusted or estimated by hand. Medians use recorded closed sales; supply figures use live listing counts refreshed twice daily; the Momentum Score methodology is summarized .
Analyst oversight: Jon Brooks — Co-Founder, Momentum Realty · CEO, Momentum Research · Housing Market Analyst · methodology reviewed quarterly · Last data refresh: October 26, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET
Statistics on this page are computed automatically from licensed MLS feeds and public data sources (Zillow Research, U.S. Census Bureau) and summarized without manual review. Figures are estimates based on recent recorded activity, are deemed reliable but not guaranteed, and should be verified with a licensed agent before making decisions. This page does not constitute an appraisal or an automated valuation of any specific property. Momentum Realty is licensed in Florida and Georgia. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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