Pablo Creek Reserve
Homes for Sale in Jacksonville, FL
True comps, carrying-cost math, and listings before the portals.
Market Heat
Pablo Creek Reserve's price sits where it does because of size, not staging: the median home here runs 5,058 square feet and carries a median build year of 2015, inside a 2006-2024 construction window across 251 homes total. That combination of newer construction and large floor plans is what supports a median price of $2,505,000 and a median $594 per square foot, both of which describe scale and build quality rather than anything speculative.
Right now there are zero active listings, so there is nothing on the market to compare against directly. The last tracked window shows 18 closings, a median of just over 85 days on market, prices up 4.5% year over year and up 186% since 2012, with a market heat score of 44 that reads as moderate rather than frenzied. For a seller, that argues for pricing off the last comparable closings rather than guessing; for a buyer, it means there is no live inventory to react to today, and the next listing that surfaces should be evaluated against this closing history, not against list-price psychology.
Pablo Creek Reserve right now
🔴 Seller-leaning market. 1.5 months of supply and 67% of the inventory already under contract give sellers the pressure advantage.Why it matters: months of supply is how long today's inventory would last at today's sales pace; under-contract share is the portion of homes for sale that already have a buyer.Momentum Research analysis of realMLS records, as of July 15, 2026. Confidence: High (6 active and pending listings, 17 closed sales in 12 months).
🟢 Still climbing. The trailing-12-month median ($2.54M) is up 9.4% from the prior 12 months ($2.32M) and up 190% since 2012. With about 16 sales a year, a single closing can swing this number, so read the level and the decade, not one year's move.Momentum Research, record-level realMLS closed sales, 12-month windows ending July 15. Confidence: Medium (17 and 11 sales in the two windows).
What's unique here: the median sale price is about 8x the typical Duval County sale ($2.54M vs $325K, trailing 12 months, realMLS records).
Jump to: Price history & scorecard · Homes for sale · Schools · FAQ
Updated July 15, 2026 · Live data: realMLS, refreshed twice daily · MLS facts carry their source; interpretation lines are Momentum Research · Data sources & freshness
The 60-Second Overview
Pablo Creek Reserve market snapshot (as of July 15, 2026): the median sale price is about $2.54M ($594 per sq ft over the trailing 12 months of closed sales), a median 91 days on market for closed sales, and 1.5 months of supply, a seller-leaning market. The trailing-12-month median is up 9% from the prior 12 months and up 190% since 2012, computed from record-level realMLS closed sales (17 closings in the current window).
Pablo Creek Reserve is a community of 251 homes in Jacksonville, Duval County, built between 2006 and 2024 (median 2015), with a median living area of about 5,058 square feet. 81% of parcels are homesteaded, the owner-occupancy proxy in the Florida DOR assessment roll (2025 roll, public records).
A small, low-turnover pocket of 251 homes built mostly after 2006, where the last 18 recorded closings set the market rather than a rotating pool of active listings.
The setting & the homes.
Aerial and on-site photos of Pablo Creek Reserve. Swipe to explore the community.
Swipe or use the arrows → tap any photo to enlarge
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Pablo Creek ReservePhotos from realMLS listings in Pablo Creek Reserve; content deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Who Pablo Creek Reserve is best for.
Best for
- Buyers targeting a large-format home (5,000+ square feet) and comfortable with a purchase timeline measured in months, not days.
- Sellers whose home matches the community's median build era (2006-2024) and who can price off the last 18 closings rather than active competition.
- Buyers or sellers who want a steady, multi-year price trend (up 186% since 2012) rather than a fast-moving, high-turnover market.
Probably not for
- Buyers who need to tour and compare active listings this month; there is currently nothing on the market here.
- Sellers expecting a quick sale; the recent median of just over 85 days on market argues against a fast close.
- Investors looking for high turnover; an 81.1% homestead-exemption share points to a largely owner-held, low-churn base.
Price History: What Homes Here Have Actually Sold For
Median sale price over the trailing 12 months ending July 15 of each year, from record-level realMLS closed sales. Same methodology as every appreciation figure on this page: the 2026 point ($2.54M) IS the median in the snapshot above, and the move from 2025 ($2.32M) IS the +9.4% one-year change.
Windows contain 6 to 20 sales each (17 in the current window); every figure carries its sample size, and thin markets swing on single closings. Source: Data provided by realMLS. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Pablo Creek Reserve Market Scorecard
Pablo Creek Reserve is currently a strong seller's market. About 2.1 months of supply, a median asking price of $3,000,000, and homes go under contract in about 39 days.
Typical home value in the 32224 ZIP is $459,079, about 13.7% above the Florida norm (Zillow Home Value Index).
Go deeper: ZIP market scorecard · county scorecard · true cost calculator · affordability calculator.
Live data: realMLS, refreshed twice daily. Typical value: Zillow Research. Market metrics only; these describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
Homes For Sale Right Now in Pablo Creek Reserve
Live MLS inventory for Pablo Creek Reserve. Every active listing, what is under contract right now, and the last 12 months of closed sales, refreshed twice a day. Closed comps beat an algorithm's guess every time.
Active · 87 daysTop listing
Active · 15 days
Pending · 43 days
Pending · 22 days
Pending · 49 days
Pending · 96 daysActive and pending Pablo Creek Reserve listings as of 2026-07-14, priced high to low. Source: Data provided by realMLS. Tap any home to ask about it.
Pablo Creek Reserve on the map.
Every active, pending, and recently sold home, plotted. Toggle the layers and tap a home for the details.
Listing locations from realMLS. Map data © OpenStreetMap, tiles © CARTO.
Life at Pablo Creek Reserve
- Gated · reported on 14 of 16 listings
- Playground · reported on 12 of 16 listings
- Gated with Guard · reported on 10 of 16 listings
- Jogging Path · reported on 9 of 16 listings
- Park · reported on 9 of 16 listings
- Security · reported on 7 of 16 listings
- Barbecue · reported on 5 of 16 listings
- Security Gate · reported on 5 of 16 listings
- 24 Hour Security · reported on 5 of 16 listings
- Management - Off Site · reported on 4 of 16 listings
- Maintenance Grounds · reported on 4 of 16 listings
- Security Lights · reported on 4 of 16 listings
Community amenities as reported across realMLS listings in this community; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Verify current amenities and access with the HOA.
How far is everything?
Everyday stops around Pablo Creek Reserve are close: the nearest health is about 2 minutes away.
- UF Shands · Health2 min
- Southern Grounds & Co · Coffee3 min
- Publix · Groceries4 min
- Windsor Commons · Shopping4 min
- Swimming Safari · Parks4 min
Approximate drive times via Mapbox Search + Directions, 2026-07-03. Verify for a specific address.
Schools
- Duval County Public Schools
- Verify the zoned schools by address
- Magnet and choice options may be available
- J. Allen Axson Elementary SchoolFLDOE grade A · Public K-5
- Landmark Middle SchoolFLDOE grade A · Public 6-8
- Atlantic Coast High SchoolFLDOE grade A · Public 9-12
Grades are official Florida Department of Education school grades for 2025-26. Assignments are reported as of the 2025-26 year and can change; always confirm with Duval County Public Schools for a specific address.
Buying with schools in mind? We can confirm the exact zoned schools for any Pablo Creek Reserve address.
Recent Developments in Pablo Creek Reserve
Development, infrastructure, retail, and school activity affecting Pablo Creek Reserve, tracked by our team and summarized from public reporting and official sources, with links to the original coverage. Last updated June 2026.
- June 2026Retail & Dining
First restaurants named for The Village at Seven Pines on the Butler corridor
Regency Centers announced the first restaurants for The Village at Seven Pines, the Publix anchored center it is developing at southeast Interstate 295 and Butler Boulevard, naming Ember and Iron, Hawkers Asian Street Food, Lynora's, 1928 Cuban Bistro and Chipotle Mexican Grill. The restaurants are expected to open in 2027 as part of the roughly 1,000 acre Seven Pines master plan.
What it may mean for the marketA deeper dining lineup at a grocery anchored center on the Butler corridor could broaden options within a short drive of Pablo Creek Reserve, with the effect dependent on opening timing.
Source: Jacksonville Today - February 2026Development
Village at Seven Pines breaks ground on the Butler corridor
Regency Centers broke ground on a Publix-anchored open-air center at Butler Boulevard and I-295 with tenants including Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn Kids and several restaurants. The first stores are expected to open in 2027 within the 1,000-acre Seven Pines community.
What it may mean for the marketUpscale retail along the Butler corridor may broaden shopping options near Pablo Creek Reserve, with the magnitude depending on tenant openings.
Source: Jacksonville Daily Record - December 2025Retail & Dining
Town Center area adds retail, restaurants and a $110M shopping-center sale
Coverage of the St. Johns Town Center area noted Kimco Realty's $110 million purchase of The Markets at Town Center and new openings including Petfolk, a Veterinary Emergency Group, PopUp Bagels and the Town Center II strip center. The Town Center district is a short drive from Pablo Creek Reserve.
What it may mean for the marketContinued reinvestment in the nearby Town Center retail base can reinforce the area's draw, though individual tenant performance varies.
Source: Jacksonville Daily Record - October 2025Market
Pablo Creek Reserve home on Bentpine Cove sells for $1.9 million
A four-bedroom, 3,635-square-foot home built in 2018 at 5227 Bentpine Cove sold Sept. 30 for $1.9 million. The home, on 0.34 acre, includes a saltwater pool, guest suite and summer kitchen.
What it may mean for the marketVerified transaction data at this price helps establish a recent comparable for similarly sized homes in the community.
Source: Jacksonville Daily Record - August 2025Infrastructure
Mayo Clinic expands campus adjacent to the San Pablo corridor
The city permitted a $19 million build-out at Mayo Clinic, which is also developing a 210-acre North Campus off San Pablo Road. Pablo Creek Reserve sits nearby off J. Turner Butler Boulevard on San Pablo.
What it may mean for the marketProximity to a growing, high-employment medical campus has historically been a draw for buyers in this area, though demand effects are not uniform.
Source: Jacksonville Daily Record - March 2025Market
Home at 14365 Cottage Lake Road sells for $3 million
A two-story, 4,071-square-foot home built in 2024 at 14365 Cottage Lake Road sold March 21 for $3 million, with the buyers taking a $2.4 million mortgage. The five-bedroom residence includes a pool.
What it may mean for the marketA documented new-construction sale near $3 million provides a current reference point for higher-end product in Pablo Creek Reserve.
Source: Jacksonville Daily Record
Summaries reflect public reporting and official sources linked above as of the dates shown. Project details, timelines, and approvals can change. Commentary on potential market effects is general observation, not investment advice or a prediction for any specific property. For the freshest items across the whole region, see This Week in Northeast Florida.
The Pablo Creek Reserve buying strategy.
If we were buying in Pablo Creek Reserve today, this is the order of operations we would run for our clients.
Underwrite the condition first. Price the roof, HVAC, and systems honestly before judging any list price; condition swings value here more than square footage alone.
Match the home to real comps. Recent sales of similar condition and lot, not the asking price, tell you what a home is worth.
Come strong and clean. Homes here move, so lead with your best terms and financing ready rather than a low anchor.
Line up financing and inspection early. A pre-approval and an inspection plan let you act fast and negotiate from evidence.
Keep an agent in your corner. The listing agent works for the seller; we represent you and prepare a hand-built valuation before any offer in Pablo Creek Reserve.
What the closing history actually says
With zero homes actively listed, Pablo Creek Reserve is a market you read through its closing record, not its for-sale signs. Eighteen closings in the last tracked window, a median price of $2,505,000, and a median $594 per square foot point to a community where large-format homes (median 5,058 living square feet, median year built 2015) trade infrequently and at a consistent premium. Days on market running just over 85 suggests these homes are not moving on impulse; buyers here are taking real time to decide, and sellers should expect a longer runway than a typical listing.
About 81.1% of homes in the community carry a homestead exemption, which points to a base of owner-occupied ownership rather than a rotating investor or seasonal pool. Combined with the 2006-2024 build range and a moderate heat score of 44, the picture is a mature, largely owner-held community with steady rather than explosive price movement: up 4.5% over the past year and up 186% since 2012.
The location and the amenities are priced into every listing in Pablo Creek Reserve. The deal is won or lost on condition, the comps, and the renovation math.
Momentum Buy Score.
Our proprietary 0 to 10 read across the factors that decide how a home in Pablo Creek Reserve buys, holds, and resells. Momentum Research; not an appraisal.
Momentum Intelligence Scores are our proprietary, qualitative assessment on a 0 to 10 scale, built from the record-level market data on this page. They are a framework for comparing communities, not a guarantee of future value and not advice on a specific home; unlike an automated value estimate they do not price your home, they grade the community on evidence you can inspect. Composite is the plain average of the 5 factors (7.6). Basis: Long-Term Appreciation +190% since 2012; Recent Direction +9.4% year-over-year; Liquidity & Demand 1.5 months of supply; Owner Commitment 81% owner-occupied; Pricing Power 89.6% sale-to-list. Refreshed with each data update.
Why work with Momentum here
With no active listings to shop, the closing record is the only real map of this community, and reading it correctly, comparing the 18 most recent closings against a home's specific size, build year, and condition, is exactly where a local broker earns their fee. We will tell you what the last closings actually support before you write an offer or set a list price, not after.
Pablo Creek Reserve in 15 seconds.
HOA, CDD & Fees
- No CDD
- Mandatory HOA — confirm current dues
- Any club/amenity membership is billed separately
Confirm the current HOA dues, exactly what they cover, and any CDD bond or special assessment for a specific address before you offer.
Page states no CDD.
Tools for a Pablo Creek Reserve buy.
Free calculators to pressure-test the real cost before you tour.
Selling here is won on condition and pricing to real comps, not an automated estimate. The right number comes from closed Pablo Creek Reserve sales matched to your home.
Price it to the comps and condition, not an automated estimate.
If you are thinking about selling in Pablo Creek Reserve, the right list price comes from recent comparable sales matched to your home's condition and location, not an automated estimate.
What is your Pablo Creek Reserve home worth?
Get a no-obligation home value based on real comparable sales in Pablo Creek Reserve, not an automated guess. Tell us about your home and we will personally prepare your numbers and a pricing strategy. No obligation, no spam.
See homes for sale in Pablo Creek Reserve on the map →
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in Pablo Creek Reserve?
How long do homes in Pablo Creek Reserve take to sell?
Is Pablo Creek Reserve a buyer's or seller's market right now?
How many homes are in Pablo Creek Reserve?
What share of Pablo Creek Reserve is owner-occupied?
When were the homes in Pablo Creek Reserve built?
Do cash buyers compete in Pablo Creek Reserve?
Have Pablo Creek Reserve home prices gone up?
What schools serve Pablo Creek Reserve?
Who is the best real estate agent for Pablo Creek Reserve?
How do I find a top Jacksonville real estate agent who knows Pablo Creek Reserve?
Can Momentum Realty connect me with an agent for Pablo Creek Reserve?
Should you buy in Pablo Creek Reserve?
An honest fit check. We will tell you when it is not your community.
Nearby Communities
Explore more neighborhoods near Pablo Creek Reserve with Momentum Realty’s local guides.
Data sources & freshness
| Live listings | realMLS, refreshed twice daily (last: July 14, 2026) |
| Community market stats | realMLS closed sales, 12-month windows ending July 15, 2026 |
| Housing stock & ownership | Florida DOR 2025 assessment roll (street-list match (9 streets, ZIP 32224/32256)) |
| Under-contract shares | realMLS records, as of 2026-07-12 |
| Schools | 2025-26 district assignments + FLDOE school grades; verify with the district |
| Historical depth | Closed-sale records back to 2007 (229 transactions analyzed) |
Verify the primary sources yourself: Florida DOR · U.S. Census · FEMA flood maps · Citizens Property Insurance.
Momentum Research figures are our own analysis of realMLS records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Methodology: how Momentum market scores are computed. Market metrics describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
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