Data Analysis

Miami home prices rose 4.24 percent over the year in August 2026 while Tampa prices fell 0.39 percent, and the gap between Florida's two Case-Shiller metros widened to 4.63 points.

S&P Dow Jones Indices reported a 2.1 percent annual gain in its U.S. National Home Price Index for August 2026, up from 1.9 percent in July. Miami ranked fourth of 19 metros, Tampa fifteenth.

Miami home prices rose 4.24 percent over the year in August 2026 while Tampa prices fell 0.39 percent, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices published October 27, 2026. The U.S. National Home Price Index rose 2.1 percent, up from 1.9 percent in July. The 20-City Composite rose 2.7 percent and the 10-City Composite rose 3.6 percent. Miami and Tampa are the only Florida markets in the index, and in August they finished 4.63 percentage points apart, wider than the 4.26-point gap in July.

Both Florida metros improved on their July readings. Miami's annual gain picked up from 3.53 percent, and Tampa's decline narrowed from minus 0.73 percent. The direction of each market did not change.

How much did Miami and Tampa home prices change in August 2026?

S&P Dow Jones Indices reported Miami at plus 4.24 percent and Tampa at minus 0.39 percent over the twelve months ending August 2026. Both are annual changes in the metro-level indices, taken from Table 2 of the October 27 release.

Month to month, before seasonal adjustment, Miami rose 0.17 percent from July and Tampa fell 0.37 percent. After seasonal adjustment, Miami rose 0.23 percent and Tampa slipped 0.07 percent. Tampa's monthly change was negative on both measures. Miami's was positive on both.

Miami finished 1.59 percentage points above the 20-City Composite's 2.65 percent. Tampa finished 3.04 points below it. Those comparisons are Momentum Research's arithmetic on the published figures, not numbers S&P stated.

Where do Miami and Tampa rank among the Case-Shiller metros?

Ranked by annual change, Miami placed fourth of the 19 metros reported and Tampa placed fifteenth. Chicago led at 6.70 percent for what S&P described as the sixth consecutive month at the top, followed by New York at 6.19 percent and Cleveland at 4.29 percent.

The ranks deserve a caution. Miami's 4.24 percent sits 0.05 points below Cleveland's 4.29 percent, so third against fourth is a rounding-sized difference. Tampa's minus 0.39 percent sits 0.73 points below Portland's plus 0.34 percent and 0.37 points above Denver's minus 0.76 percent. Tampa moved up one place from sixteenth in July because Portland's annual change turned positive and Tampa's decline was smaller than Denver's, not because of a large move of its own.

Five metros carried negative annual changes in August: Tampa, Denver at minus 0.76 percent, Dallas at minus 0.79 percent, Las Vegas at minus 1.29 percent and Seattle at minus 1.96 percent. In July there were six. Tampa is the only metro east of Texas with a negative reading.

What did the national Case-Shiller index do in August 2026?

The National Index posted a 2.09 percent annual gain in August, against 1.9 percent in July. The 10-City Composite rose 3.62 percent against 3.4 percent, and the 20-City Composite rose 2.65 percent against 2.5 percent. All three accelerated for a second month in a row.

Before seasonal adjustment, all three fell from July: the National Index by 0.15 percent, the 10-City by 0.36 percent and the 20-City by 0.40 percent. After seasonal adjustment, all three rose: the National Index by 0.28 percent, the 10-City by 0.37 percent and the 20-City by 0.27 percent. Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in the release that "seasonality continued to weigh on headline monthly results." Late summer is when closings normally cool, so unadjusted monthly declines in August are expected and the adjusted figures are the better read of direction.

Are home prices falling after inflation?

Yes, by S&P's own account. Kaufman said U.S. home prices declined in real terms for the 15th consecutive month in August 2026. The release puts August inflation at 3.4 percent, about 1.3 points above the 2.1 percent national home price gain. The release also notes that the gap narrowed because nominal price growth strengthened.

For Florida, the inflation comparison splits the two metros. Miami's 4.24 percent annual gain ran above 3.4 percent inflation, so Miami prices rose in real terms by that simple comparison. Tampa's nominal decline means its real decline was larger, roughly 3.8 points on the same arithmetic. Both of those are Momentum Research's comparisons; S&P published no metro-level real figures.

Kaufman also said "affordability, however, remains challenging," citing inflation, oil prices and mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32 percent on October 22, covered in our mortgage rate report.

Why is Detroit missing again?

The August release covers 19 metros. S&P said Cotality has transaction recording delays from the Wayne County recording office, so no valid August 2026 Detroit value was published. A valid July value is available, and S&P said it will continue to update Detroit for months with missing sales data. The 20-City Composite is still published under that name.

What does this mean for Florida buyers and sellers?

Florida's two indexed metros are still moving in opposite directions, so neither number stands in for the state. Miami's annual gain ran above every national composite. Tampa's change stayed negative while the national index rose. A seller in Tampa is pricing against a year of slightly lower values; a buyer in Miami is paying against a year of gains faster than inflation.

The Case-Shiller figures cover June through August closings. Newer local readings are on the Miami market page and the Tampa market page. Redfin's September price index, which covers more Florida metros, is in our Florida metro price report. Statewide figures are on the Florida housing tracker, and July's Case-Shiller results are in our July report.

People also ask

Are Miami home prices still going up?

Yes. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Miami index rose 4.24 percent over the year ending August 2026, the fourth-largest gain of the 19 metros reported, and rose 0.17 percent from July before seasonal adjustment.

Are Tampa home prices going down?

Tampa's Case-Shiller index was down 0.39 percent from a year earlier in August 2026 and fell 0.37 percent from July before seasonal adjustment. The annual decline was smaller than July's minus 0.73 percent.

What is the Case-Shiller national home price index for August 2026?

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 2.1 percent over the year ending August 2026, up from 1.9 percent in July, according to the October 27, 2026 release.

When is the next Case-Shiller release?

S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes Case-Shiller on the last Tuesday of the month. The September 2026 data is due November 24, 2026.

Limitations

Figures come from S&P Dow Jones Indices' release of October 27, 2026, read from the PDF on spglobal.com and checked against the PR Newswire distribution of the same release; both returned the same national, composite, Miami and Tampa figures. S&P's index pages render their tables in JavaScript and were not used. A long-run Miami and Tampa history chart was not built for this article because the public series mirror the desk uses for history was unreachable from our systems today; the ranked chart above uses only the release's own table.

Ranks, the 4.63-point Florida spread, the gaps to the 20-City Composite and the real-terms comparisons for Miami and Tampa are Momentum Research's calculations from published figures. The release does not print county definitions for the "Miami" and "Tampa" indices, so this article does not state which areas they cover. Case-Shiller is a repeat-sales index of single-family homes and reflects a three-month moving average of closings, so the August reading includes June and July sales.

Sources

S&P Dow Jones Indices, "S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in August 2026," released October 27, 2026.

S&P Dow Jones Indices, "S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in July 2026," released September 29, 2026, for July metro figures.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 22, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.