Market Brief

The 30-year fixed jumped to 7.07 percent Thursday, September 10, its highest since May 2025, after a hot producer-price report and an overnight oil spike. Existing-home sales fell under 4 million, and Florida's four big metros are all buyer's markets by Redfin's count.

The 30-year fixed hit 7.07% on Sept 10 (MND), its highest since May 2025, after a hot PPI and an oil spike. Freddie Mac 6.76%. The Fed decides Sept 16.

The Thursday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs, with a Friday-morning update on the August inflation report at the end.

Rates: 7.07 percent, the highest daily reading since May 21, 2025

Mortgage News Daily's daily 30-year fixed index closed Thursday, September 10, at 7.07 percent, up 10 basis points on the day from 6.97 percent Wednesday and 6.89 percent Tuesday. MND's Matthew Graham called it "a substantial 2-day change and the highest rate we've seen since May 21, 2025." The 15-year was 6.62 percent, the 30-year jumbo 7.20 percent, the 30-year FHA 6.62 percent and the 30-year VA 6.64 percent, all per MND's rate table dated September 10. The 52-week range on the index is now 5.99 to 7.07 percent.

Two things did it, per MND's morning and afternoon commentary: an overnight surge in oil prices, and a poorly received Producer Price Index. Graham also flagged Wednesday's bond selloff on the Treasury Department's buyback announcement. The 10-year Treasury traded around 4.92 to 4.97 percent Thursday and was at 4.953 percent at 9:02 a.m. Friday per MND's pricing table.

The weekly surveys lag, and both still rose

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday at noon, averaged 6.76 percent, up from 6.71 percent the prior week and from 6.35 percent a year earlier. The 15-year averaged 6.09 percent. Freddie's number is an average of the four business days ending Wednesday, September 9, so it does not include Thursday's move, and it no longer accounts for points; MND's note is that 6.75 percent with a point is roughly 7.00 percent without one.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's survey for the week ending September 4, published Wednesday, September 9, had the 30-year conforming contract rate at 6.85 percent with 0.67 points, up from 6.79 percent. MBA's Joel Kan called it the highest since June 2025 and 36 basis points above a year ago. Applications fell 2.7 percent on the week; refinance applications fell 6 percent to the slowest pace since May 2025 and were 25 percent below a year earlier; purchase applications were down 0.2 percent on the week and 4 percent above a year ago on an unadjusted basis. The ARM share rose to 8.5 percent, the highest since June. The FHA share rose to 17.2 percent from 15.9 percent.

Thursday's inflation input: PPI up 0.4 percent, energy did it

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday morning that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in August after 0.1 percent in July, and 5.4 percent over twelve months unadjusted. Final demand goods rose 1.1 percent, with over three-fourths of that from energy, up 4.2 percent; diesel fuel jumped 24.1 percent. Final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.3 percent on the month and 4.7 percent on the year. MND's point is that parts of PPI feed the PCE index the Fed targets, which is why a report that usually does not move mortgage rates moved them Thursday.

Existing-home sales fell under 4 million; supply is the highest in a decade

The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that August existing-home sales fell 2.0 percent on the month and 1.2 percent on the year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the first reading under 4 million since June 2025. Inventory rose 3.2 percent to 1.62 million units, the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019, and months of supply reached 4.9, up from 4.6 in July and the highest in more than ten years per NAR's Lawrence Yun. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6 percent from a year ago, the 38th straight annual gain. The South, which includes Florida, saw sales down 1.6 percent on the month, flat on the year, with a median of $366,500, up 0.7 percent. Median time on market was 31 days. First-time buyers were 30 percent of sales; cash was 27 percent.

Redfin: the strongest buyer's market on record, and Florida leads it

Redfin's August buyers-versus-sellers report, published Thursday, September 10, estimated 57.9 percent more sellers than buyers nationally, the widest gap in records back to 2013, up from 52.1 percent in July. Sellers in the market numbered about 1,534,918, the most since early 2020; buyers about 972,300, up 0.1 percent from July's record low.

Florida is where the imbalance is widest. Redfin's metro table put Miami at 138 percent more sellers than buyers, the second-widest gap in the country after Nashville, Orlando at 121 to 122 percent (the table and the text differ by a point), Tampa at 86 percent and Jacksonville at 66 percent. All four are classified buyer's markets. Redfin's stated reasons for the Sun Belt gap are active homebuilding pipelines adding supply while local demand softens, and in Miami specifically, insurance costs, HOA fees and climate risk. Our Florida housing tracker carries the metro-level supply and price series, and our county insurance page has the premium data behind the Miami point.

Redfin's weekly report, also published September 10 for the four weeks ending September 6, had the typical buyer's monthly payment at a 14-month high of $2,641 at a 6.71 percent rate, pending sales down 2.1 percent on the year near their lowest since February, new listings up 2.1 percent on the year, 20.8 percent of listings with a price drop, and median days on market at 46, one more than a year ago.

The calendar: CPI Friday, Fed Wednesday, Lennar Wednesday night

• Friday, September 11, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS Consumer Price Index for August. See the update below.
• Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15 to 16: the FOMC meets; the statement is due at 2:00 p.m. ET on the 16th. The current target range is 3.50 to 3.75 percent, as our July minutes report covered.
• Wednesday, September 16, after the close: Lennar's third-quarter results, with the call at 11:00 a.m. ET on the 17th, per its September 2 notice. Our September 6 brief has the full setup for that call, and the Citizens Property Insurance depopulation story that we are not repeating here.

What this means for Northeast Florida

For a buyer: on a $350,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.07 percent is about $2,345 a month, against about $2,303 at the 6.89 percent of last Friday and about $2,178 at the 6.35 percent Freddie Mac recorded a year ago, a difference of roughly $167 a month or $2,000 a year over twelve months, using a standard amortization formula. The offset is the supply side: 4.9 months nationally per NAR, 66 percent more sellers than buyers in Jacksonville per Redfin, and one in five listings nationally with a price cut. The payment is set in the bond market; the price is increasingly set at the negotiating table.

For a seller: the ARM share at 8.5 percent and the FHA share at 17.2 percent say the buyers who are still transacting are stretching to do it. A seller competing with 66 percent more listings than there are buyers is competing on price and concessions, which our Jacksonville July report showed was already happening before the rate moved. Florida's property tax structure matters more in a market where buyers are doing payment math to the dollar.

Friday morning update: August CPI 0.4 percent, hike odds above 80 percent

Added Friday, September 11, 9:30 a.m. ET. The BLS reported at 8:30 a.m. that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent in August after 0.1 percent in July, with the all-items index up 3.4 percent over twelve months, the same as July. Gasoline rose 3.9 percent and accounted for over a third of the monthly increase; energy is up 16.3 percent on the year. Core CPI, all items less food and energy, rose 0.3 percent on the month after 0.2 percent, and 2.4 percent on the year, down from 2.5 percent. Shelter rose 0.3 percent after 0.1 percent.

CME FedWatch, read at about 9:00 a.m. ET Friday, showed an 83.4 percent probability of a quarter-point increase on September 16 and 16.6 percent for no change, against readings between 52 and 58 percent last Friday. MND's pricing table at 9:02 a.m. had the 10-year at 4.953 percent, down 1.2 basis points, and mortgage-backed securities slightly higher, which MND's rate-trend indicator read as a minimal positive for Friday's rate sheets. We will carry Friday's close in the next brief.

What we are not saying

We are not saying the Fed will hike on the 16th; an 83 percent futures reading is a market price, not a decision, and it was taken 30 minutes after the CPI print. We are not saying 7.07 percent is a lender's quote; it is MND's top-tier index and individual quotes vary. We are not saying Orlando's seller surplus is 121 or 122 percent; Redfin's text and table differ and both are carried. And we are not saying a national 4.9 months of supply describes Jacksonville, where our own MLS data, not NAR's national series, is the measure.

People also ask

What are mortgage rates right now, September 10, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's index closed Thursday, September 10, 2026, at 7.07 percent for a top-tier 30-year fixed, up 0.10 on the day and the highest since May 21, 2025. Freddie Mac's weekly survey released the same day averaged 6.76 percent, up from 6.71 percent and from 6.35 percent a year earlier; it averages the four business days through Wednesday and excludes points. The MBA's contract rate for the week ending September 4 was 6.85 percent with 0.67 points. Individual quotes vary by credit, down payment, loan type and lender.

Why did mortgage rates jump on September 10, 2026?

Per Mortgage News Daily, two factors explain most of the move: an overnight surge in oil prices and a poorly received August Producer Price Index, which rose 0.4 percent on the month with energy goods up 4.2 percent. The prior day's selloff followed a Treasury buyback announcement. The 10-year Treasury, which the 30-year mortgage tracks, traded near 4.92 to 4.97 percent Thursday. Friday's CPI then showed headline inflation up 0.4 percent on the month and 3.4 percent on the year, and futures priced an 83.4 percent chance of a Fed rate increase on September 16.

Is Jacksonville a buyer's market in 2026?

By Redfin's August 2026 measure, published September 10, yes: Redfin estimated 66 percent more sellers than buyers in the Jacksonville metro, above its 10 percent threshold for a buyer's market. Miami (138 percent), Orlando (about 122 percent) and Tampa (86 percent) were wider. Nationally, Redfin estimated 57.9 percent more sellers than buyers, the widest gap in its records back to 2013, and NAR put national supply at 4.9 months in August, the highest in more than ten years. Conditions vary by price band and neighborhood.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, Today's Mortgage Rates: Daily Index, rate table as of September 10, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, Matthew Graham, "30yr Fixed Rates Jump to 7.07%", September 10, 2026, 2:44 p.m.: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09102026
• Mortgage News Daily, Matthew Graham, "Sharply Weaker Again. Half Oil. Half PPI", September 10, 2026, 9:18 a.m.: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09102026
• Mortgage News Daily, Daily Newsletter, September 10, 2026 (MBS and Treasury pricing as of September 11, 9:02 a.m. ET): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260910
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, "Mortgage Rates Average 6.76%", September 10, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
• Mortgage Bankers Association, "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey", September 9, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/09/09/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, August 2026, released September 10, 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, August 2026, released September 11, 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
• National Association of Realtors, "NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Decrease in August", September 10, 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-decrease-in-august
• Redfin, Dana Anderson, "It's Now The Strongest Buyer's Market on Record, Driven by the Sun Belt", September 10, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-august-2026/
• Redfin, Dana Anderson, "High Costs Sideline Some Would-Be Homebuyers, Handing Upper Hand to Those Who Stay in the Market", four weeks ending September 6, published September 10, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-high-costs-sideline-buyers-negotiating-power/
• CME Group, CME FedWatch, September 16, 2026 meeting probabilities, read September 11, 2026, about 9:00 a.m. ET: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
• Federal Reserve Board, FOMC meeting calendars (September 15 to 16, 2026): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• Lennar Corporation, "Lennar Corporation to Broadcast Its Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call on September 17, 2026", September 2, 2026: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lennar-corporation-to-broadcast-its-third-quarter-2026-earnings-call-on-september-17-2026-302868127.html
• Momentum Research, "Mortgage Rates Wait on Friday CPI Before the Fed Decides", September 6, 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/macro-brief-september-6-2026/
• Momentum Research, "Fed Minutes: Three Dissents for a Hike, None for a Cut", August 2026: https://movewithmomentum.com/news/florida/fomc-minutes-july-2026/

All figures are as published on the dates given. Third-party figures are attributed to their publisher and have not been independently verified. Futures-implied probabilities are market expectations, not forecasts by this publication. Payment examples are illustrative, use principal and interest only, and exclude taxes, insurance and fees. This is general market information, not financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.