Data Analysis

Redfin reported Miami had 138 percent more home sellers than buyers in August 2026, the second-largest surplus of any U.S. metro, with Orlando fourth at 122 percent.

Nationally there were 57.9 percent more sellers than buyers, which Redfin calls the strongest buyer's market in records going back to 2013. In West Palm Beach 85 percent of homes sold below asking price, the highest share in the country.

Miami had 138 percent more home sellers than buyers in August 2026, the second-largest surplus of any U.S. metro, and Orlando had 122 percent more, the fourth largest, according to Redfin reports published September 9 and 10. Nationally there were an estimated 1,534,918 sellers against 972,300 buyers, a surplus of 57.9 percent, up from 52.1 percent in July. Redfin calls it the strongest buyer's market in its records, which go back to 2013. In West Palm Beach, 85 percent of homes sold below asking price, the highest share in the United States.

How lopsided is Florida's housing market right now?

Three Florida metros sit in Redfin's ranking of the largest seller surpluses. Miami is second at 138 percent, behind Nashville at 139 percent. Orlando is fourth at 122 percent. Houston sits between them at 131 percent, and Las Vegas, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas follow at 117, 116, 115 and 108 percent. Atlanta and Phoenix round out the top ten, though Redfin did not state their figures.

Every metro on that list is above the national 57.9 percent, most of them by more than double. The concentration is regional. Redfin's own framing is that the Sun Belt is driving the record.

The two Florida metros moved in opposite directions from July. Orlando's surplus grew the most of any metro, from 100 percent to 122 percent. Miami's shrank, from 149 percent to 138 percent, while staying the second strongest in the country. West Palm Beach saw the largest fall of any metro, from 81 percent to 65 percent.

Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said in the release that with sellers piling into the market and demand falling flat, today's house hunters can afford to be choosy, and that buyers should negotiate on price.

Why is West Palm Beach both the biggest price gainer and the biggest discounter?

This is the oddest thing in the August data and it is worth sitting with.

West Palm Beach had the largest median sale price increase of any U.S. metro, up 8.6 percent from a year earlier to $513,192. It also had the highest share of homes selling below their original list price of any U.S. metro, at 85.4 percent. Those two facts describe the same market in the same month.

Redfin's explanation is composition. The release says that in West Palm Beach and Miami, luxury home sales are a big driver of the market, and that many ultra-expensive homes sell below their asking price even though the sale price remains quite high.

That fits what this desk found in Redfin's own luxury data earlier this month, where West Palm Beach luxury sales rose 43.9 percent from a year earlier. A market where the expensive end is doing the volume will show a rising median even while nearly every individual seller is cutting.

The practical reading for a buyer is that a headline price increase in Palm Beach County is not evidence that sellers there have leverage. The below-asking share says the opposite.

What happened to Florida inventory in August?

Florida ran against the national direction on supply, and by a wide margin.

Nationally, active listings reached 1,534,918 and months of supply stood at 3.9. New listings were 393,178 and the median sale price was $398,596, with 291,769 homes sold.

In Florida, active listings fell year over year in three of the five metros Redfin covers, and those three were the three largest declines in the country. Jacksonville fell 15.9 percent, Miami 14.3 percent and West Palm Beach 14.1 percent. Tampa rose 2.0 percent and Orlando rose 3.6 percent.

That is the tension in this month's data. Florida has the largest seller surpluses in the country and, in South Florida and Jacksonville, shrinking active inventory at the same time. Sellers outnumbering buyers is a measure of who is in the market. Active listings falling is a measure of what is on the shelf. Both can be true when listings are being withdrawn or expiring rather than selling, though this release does not break out withdrawals, so that reading is not confirmed here.

The rest of the August figures for the five Florida metros, all year over year:

Miami, median price $556,041 and up 0.2 percent, pending sales up 3.2 percent, homes sold down 3.7 percent, new listings up 2.6 percent, 83.0 percent sold below list.

Tampa, $378,666 and up 0.6 percent, pending down 4.3 percent, sold down 1.6 percent, new listings down 2.0 percent, 77.0 percent below list.

Jacksonville, $371,691 and up 0.2 percent, pending down 0.5 percent, sold up 1.0 percent, new listings down 4.2 percent, 74.3 percent below list.

Orlando, $401,581 and down 0.8 percent, pending flat, sold up 3.6 percent, new listings up 5.0 percent, 72.1 percent below list.

West Palm Beach, $513,192 and up 8.6 percent, pending up 4.4 percent, sold down 3.5 percent, new listings down 1.7 percent, 85.4 percent below list.

Market-level detail sits on the Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville and West Palm Beach hubs.

What does this mean if you are buying or selling in Florida?

For buyers, the below-asking shares are the number to carry into a negotiation. In four of the five Florida metros, more than seven in ten homes sold for less than the seller first asked, and in West Palm Beach it was closer to nine in ten. A list price in this market is an opening position.

For sellers, the same figures say that pricing to the last comparable sale is likely to mean a cut later. Redfin's release also attributes part of Miami's position to rising insurance costs, higher homeowners association fees and climate risk, which are cost pressures on buyers that a seller cannot negotiate away.

None of this is a forecast. It is one month, and the surpluses in Miami and West Palm Beach both narrowed from July even as the national figure widened.

Limitations

Redfin defines sellers as active listings and buyers as an estimate of people actively shopping, so the surplus is a modeled comparison rather than a count of two known populations. The buyer estimate in particular is Redfin's own methodology.

The record claim covers Redfin's records dating back to 2013 and says nothing about conditions before that year.

Metro rankings cover the most populous U.S. metro areas, so a metro's absence from a list is not evidence about its values. Atlanta and Phoenix are named in the top ten without stated figures and are therefore not charted here.

The median price figures are metro-level medians of closed sales in Redfin's coverage areas. They are affected by which homes sold, which is the explicit explanation Redfin gives for West Palm Beach, so they should not be read as a measure of what any individual home gained in value.

Redfin's price and inventory series are different measurements from Florida Realtors' closed median, Zillow's home value index and Realtor.com's asking prices, and the four will not agree.

The suggestion that falling active listings alongside a growing seller surplus reflects withdrawals or expirations is this desk's reading of two figures in the release. The release does not report withdrawal data and does not make that claim.

The statement about insurance costs, association fees and climate risk is Redfin's characterization in its release, not a measured figure.

These are August 2026 figures based on Redfin's analysis of MLS data and are subject to revision.

Sources

Redfin, "Housing Supply Hits 6-Year High As New Listings Jump, Giving Buyers Bargaining Power," Dana Anderson, September 9, 2026, redfin.com/news/new-listings-surge-august-2026/.

Redfin, "It's Now The Strongest Buyer's Market on Record, Driven by the Sun Belt," September 10, 2026.

Redfin, "Florida's Luxury Market Pulls Away From the Pack," Dana Anderson, September 3, 2026, redfin.com/news/luxury-housing-market-florida-july-2026/.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.