Market Brief

Mortgage rates rose to 7.45 percent on the daily index as Freddie Mac's weekly average crossed 7 percent for the first time since January 2025, while August new-home sales came in at 684,000, well above forecasts, with the South carrying about two-thirds of the volume.

MND 30-year 7.45%, up 19 bps in a day. Freddie Mac 7.03%, first above 7% since Jan 2025. New-home sales 684,000 vs 615,000 forecast.

The Friday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs. Two releases that were still pending when yesterday's September 24 brief was written came out Thursday: Freddie Mac's weekly survey and the Census Bureau's August new-home sales report. Both are covered here, along with a second straight jump in the daily rate index, the 10-year Treasury at 2007 levels, October hike odds, oil, builder incentives, down payments, Florida migration and next week's calendar.

Mortgage rates: 7.45 percent daily, 7.03 percent at Freddie Mac

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Thursday, September 24, at 7.45 percent, up 19 basis points in one session and 108 basis points above a year earlier. That follows Wednesday's 9 basis point rise to 7.26 percent, which our Thursday brief described as tied for the highest since May 2024; Thursday's close is now the top of MND's 52-week range of 5.99 to 7.45 percent. The 15-year rose 23 basis points to 7.10 percent, jumbo 7.55 percent, FHA 7.05 percent and VA 7.07 percent. The 7/6 SOFR ARM was the only product to fall, down 6 basis points to 6.70 percent. MND's Friday rate-trend indicator read positive at the time of writing, with MBS prices "moderately stronger."

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday at noon, put the 30-year fixed at 7.03 percent for the week of September 24, up from 6.95 percent and against 6.30 percent a year earlier. Coverage from NPR and Fox Business, among others, noted it is the first reading above 7 percent since January 2025. The 15-year averaged 6.42 percent, up from 6.26 percent. MND's Matthew Graham wrote Thursday that the Freddie average is built from rates seen between the prior Wednesday and the day before release, so it had not yet captured Thursday's move, and that on MND's daily series 7 percent was first crossed on September 10. We carry both: the weekly survey says rates just crossed 7 percent, the daily index says they crossed it two weeks ago and are now near 7.5 percent. The two measure different things and different days.

Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average for a 30-year conforming loan was 7.229 percent Friday, up from 7.111 percent and 16 basis points above a week earlier; the 15-year was 6.477 percent, jumbo 7.401 percent, FHA 6.662 percent and VA 6.720 percent. Fortune says it reviewed MRC data available on September 24. A "7.75 percent" figure attributed to Fortune in one search summary did not match the article itself, which we read, and we do not carry it. MBA's contract rate is still 7.12 percent for the week ending September 18; next Wednesday's survey is the first to capture this week's jump.

On a $320,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.45 percent comes to about $2,227 a month, against about $2,135 at Freddie Mac's 7.03 percent, $2,185 at Wednesday's 7.26 percent and $1,917 at MND's 52-week low of 5.99 percent. That is our arithmetic on a standard 30-year amortization, before taxes, insurance and HOA dues; the spread from the 52-week low is about $310 a month.

Treasuries: the 10-year holds above 5.1 percent

MND's table showed the 10-year Treasury at 5.164 percent Friday morning, down about 4 basis points on the day. Trading Economics' bond table read 5.18 percent at the time we checked. Semafor reported Thursday afternoon that Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007 and tied the move to deficits, U.S. and Iran tensions, oil, hawkish Fed commentary and inflation data, which it said "culminated in weak demand" at Wednesday's five-year note auction. Vantage Markets, citing NBC News and Yahoo Finance, put Wednesday's intraday high at 5.13 percent and the 30-year Treasury at 5.37 percent.

Yesterday's brief carried three different Wednesday 10-year readings, from 5.058 to 5.117 percent, and noted they reflected different time stamps. Thursday's readings sit above all three. A QSG research note time-stamped 8:36 a.m. Thursday said the 30-year yield hit a new high overnight and that credit markets logged their worst single-session loss in 19 months. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19 were 197,000 against a 200,000 consensus, per the same note, which does not give the market a reason to expect a softer Fed.

The Fed: October hike odds between 70 and 74 percent

Readings on October were steady to slightly lower than the 77.5 percent Invezz figure carried yesterday. The QSG note put the chance of an October 28 hike at 70 percent Thursday morning. A search summary citing CME FedWatch showed 73.5 percent as of September 24; we did not read the FedWatch page directly and carry the number as reported. Yesterday's brief had 71 percent from Quartz on Wednesday afternoon and 77.5 percent from Invezz Thursday morning. Taken together, the market has held roughly 70 to 78 percent odds for two days after sitting near 53 to 60 percent earlier in the week. The Fed raised the federal funds rate to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent range at its September 15 and 16 meeting, per Fortune. The next FOMC decision is October 28. PCE inflation and the second-quarter GDP estimate are due Wednesday, September 30.

New-home sales: 684,000 against a 615,000 forecast

The Census Bureau and HUD reported Thursday that sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, 6.4 percent above July and 2.0 percent below August 2025's 698,000. Calculated Risk called it "well above" the 615,000 consensus. The median sales price was $393,700, up 0.4 percent from July and down 5.8 percent from a year earlier, per HousingWire.

The July figure changed. Our July new-home sales article and yesterday's brief carried July at 607,000, the preliminary number Census published August 25. Thursday's release puts July at 643,000, and Calculated Risk says the three prior months were revised up combined. So August is up 6.4 percent from the revised July, not 12.7 percent from the original. Census's own July release noted that preliminary sales estimates are revised about 5 percent on average.

Supply: 483,000 new homes were for sale at the end of August, unchanged from July, or 8.5 months at the current pace, down from 9.0 months, per Census as quoted by Calculated Risk. Completed homes for sale numbered about 113,000 in Calculated Risk's count; HousingWire gives 112,000. Homes not yet started reached 114,000, which Calculated Risk says is an all-time high for that category. Months of supply between 4 and 6 is what Calculated Risk describes as normal.

The South, which includes Florida, accounted for about 66 percent of August sales, per HousingWire. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, Scotsman Guide reported Southern sales rose 11.4 percent to 39,000 in August from 35,000 in July, and that year to date, sales are down 1 percent in the South and 10 percent in the West. A search summary citing NAHB put the seasonally adjusted South figure at 451,000, up 6.9 percent; we did not read the NAHB post and carry that as reported. None of these figures is Florida-only.

Builders: more incentives per sale

HousingWire's Tyler Williams wrote that 22 percent of August sales were priced below $300,000, a share that has been rising, and that 26 percent were above $500,000. Cotality chief economist Selma Hepp told HousingWire that about 80 to 90 percent of new-home sales now require mortgage rate buydowns. Lennar reported that about half of prospective buyers visiting its communities last quarter did not qualify for a mortgage, per the same article, and Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said on last week's call that buyers "paying more at the pump and more for electricity" are slower to commit. KB Home's Jeffrey Mezger said traffic is down about 10 percent and that buyers "are just cautious." Our September 23 brief has KB Home's Southeast segment detail, including net orders down about 24 percent.

This is where the new-home read and the rate read meet. At 7.45 percent on the daily index, a builder buydown to a rate in the low 6s is a larger subsidy than it was two weeks ago, and the 7/6 SOFR ARM at 6.70 percent is now 75 basis points under the 30-year fixed on MND's table.

Down payments and Florida migration

Realtor.com's second-quarter down payment report, released Thursday, put the typical down payment at $27,100, down 9.2 percent from a year earlier and the lowest second-quarter level since 2021, or 13.7 percent of the purchase price, per the company's release as summarized in search results. Realtor.com said the South and West have seen more inventory recovery and softer prices, giving buyers more room to negotiate.

On demand from movers, the most recent dated statewide figure we have is from the University of Florida's Shimberg Center, published July 13: Florida added 201,191 residents through domestic and international migration in 2025, about 551 a day, against 598,737 at the 2022 peak. Polk, Pasco and Marion counties remained among the strongest destinations, while Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough and Pinellas posted net domestic outflows. Search results also surfaced a claim that more than 200,000 driver's license transfers into Florida occurred in the first half of 2026; we could not date or confirm its source and do not carry it. Our Florida migration page has the longer series.

Oil: Brent near $105 after a volatile Thursday

Trading Economics had Brent at about $105.04 Friday morning, down about 1.5 percent from Thursday's $106.60, after trading above $108 on Thursday following Houthi missile launches toward Saudi cities including the Yanbu export terminal. Trading Economics attributed Friday's dip to reports that the U.S. and Iran were discussing a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and said Brent is still on track to gain more than 2 percent for the week. Yesterday's brief had Brent at $103.08 on Wednesday and about $105 Thursday morning. Brent is up about 21 percent over the past month and about 52 percent on the year on Trading Economics' figures. Several search summaries gave conflicting Thursday prices, including a $96.84 figure we could not match to a time stamp, so we carry only Trading Economics' series.

What this means for Northeast Florida

For a First Coast buyer pricing a $320,000 loan, the daily-index payment rose about $42 a month from Wednesday to Thursday and about $92 a month above Freddie Mac's weekly average. The weekly number most people will see in headlines, 7.03 percent, trails what lenders were quoting by Thursday afternoon. On the new-construction side, national new-home sales rose and the median price fell, while builders are leaning harder on buydowns and lower price points; buyers comparing a builder-subsidized rate with a resale purchase at market rates have a larger gap to weigh than they did a month ago. The 2026 Jacksonville market page, the Jacksonville data hub and the Jacksonville August median price page carry the running local series.

What we are not saying

We are not calling the October decision; we carry 70 and 73.5 percent readings from different times and sources, and we did not read CME's page directly. The daily index and Freddie Mac's weekly survey measure different periods and methods and are not in conflict. The new-home sales figures are national and regional, not Florida-only, and preliminary monthly estimates are routinely revised, as July's was by 36,000. The South NSA and SA figures come from different sources and adjustment methods. Every figure carries its source and date; weekly and monthly series lag the daily indexes.

People also ask

What is the mortgage rate on September 25, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index was 7.45 percent at the September 24 close, up 19 basis points in a day. Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 7.03 percent for September 24. Fortune's Mortgage Research Center average was 7.229 percent Friday, and MBA's contract rate was 7.12 percent for the week ending September 18.

Did mortgage rates go above 7 percent?

Yes. Freddie Mac's weekly average reached 7.03 percent on September 24, the first reading above 7 percent since January 2025. Mortgage News Daily's daily index first crossed 7 percent on September 10 and reached 7.45 percent on September 24.

How many new homes sold in August 2026?

New single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August 2026, per the Census Bureau, up 6.4 percent from a revised 643,000 in July and down 2.0 percent from a year earlier. The median price was $393,700, and supply was 8.5 months. The South accounted for about two-thirds of sales.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, daily rate index, Treasury table and Friday rate-trend indicator (September 24 close; read September 25): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Mortgage News Daily, Matthew Graham, "Mortgage Rates Now Close to 7.5%", September 24, 2026 (read on the rate index page): https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Freddie Mac via GlobeNewswire, "Mortgage Rates Average 7.03%", September 24, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/24/3368592/0/en/mortgage-rates-average-7-03.html
• NPR, "Mortgage rates have just surpassed 7% for the first time in well over a year", September 24, 2026 (search result headline): https://www.npr.org/2026/09/24/nx-s1-5977796/mortgage-rates-freddie-mac-homebuying
• Fortune, "Mortgage rates today, Sept. 25, 2026: Rates take another jump upward", September 25, 2026: https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-09-25-2026/
• Calculated Risk, "New Home Sales Increase to 684,000 Annual Rate in August", September 24, 2026: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-increase-to-684000
• HousingWire, Tyler Williams, "Builders cut prices as new home supply holds at 8.5 months", September 24, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/august-new-home-sales-incentives/
• Scotsman Guide, "New-home sales rebound in August despite rising rates", September 24, 2026: https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/new-home-sales-rebound-in-august-despite-rising-rates/
• U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Sales, July 2026 (preliminary July estimate and revision note), August 25, 2026: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
• Semafor, Ellen DiMauro, "US Treasury yields hit highest level since 2007", September 24, 2026: https://www.semafor.com/article/09/24/2026/us-treasury-yields-hit-highest-level-since-2007
• Vantage Markets, "The Bond Market's Rough Week Gets Rougher With the 10-Year at a 19-Year High", September 24, 2026: https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-news/us-10-year-treasury-yield-2007-high-september-24-2026/
• QSG Research, "QSG Daily Report, Thursday, September 24", September 24, 2026: https://qsgcap.substack.com/p/qsg-daily-report-thursday-september-a01
• Trading Economics, Brent crude page and bond table (read September 25, 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
• Realtor.com via PR Newswire, "Down Payments Hit Lowest Q2 Level Since 2021", September 24, 2026 (search summary): https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtorcom-down-payments-hit-lowest-q2-level-since-2021-302888051.html
• University of Florida News, Brittany Sylvestri, "Florida migration slowed sharply in 2025, with mid-sized counties continuing to grow", July 13, 2026: https://news.ufl.edu/2026/07/florida-migration/

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.