Market Brief

Mortgage rates closed the week at 7.49 percent on the daily index, 30 basis points above Monday, as final September consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6 percent, while Citizens' policy count slid toward 255,000 and Brightline's parent entities filed for Chapter 11.

MND 30-year 7.49%, up 30 bps on the week. UMich sentiment 48.1, a four-month low. Citizens near 255,000 policies. Brightline parents file Chapter 11.

The Saturday read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs. Yesterday's September 25 brief covered Thursday's jump to 7.45 percent, Freddie Mac's first weekly reading above 7 percent since January 2025 and August new-home sales. This one covers Friday's close and how the week added up, the final University of Michigan sentiment survey, where the 10-year Treasury and oil ended the week, October hike odds, a new Citizens Property Insurance policy count, the Brightline bankruptcy filing and next week's calendar, which includes PCE inflation on Wednesday.

Mortgage rates: 7.49 percent, up 30 basis points on the week

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed Friday, September 25, at 7.49 percent, up 4 basis points from Thursday's 7.45 percent and, per Yahoo Finance's Claire Boston citing MND, 30 basis points higher than where rates started the week. That is the top of MND's 52-week range, which now runs from 5.99 to 7.49 percent. The 15-year rose 2 basis points to 7.12 percent, FHA rose 12 to 7.17 percent, VA rose 12 to 7.19 percent, jumbo was unchanged at 7.55 percent and the 7/6 SOFR ARM rose 15 basis points to 6.85 percent, per MND's Friday newsletter table.

MND's Matthew Graham wrote Friday afternoon that rates have risen more than half a point in two weeks, a pace he said happened only three times between 2010 and 2019, and that much of Friday's small increase was a carryover from Thursday's volatility even though the underlying bond market "actually improved" on the day. He put the current level roughly in line with early 2024 highs and below the 8 percent peak of October 2023. Yahoo Finance noted MND's rate sat at 6.75 percent on August 26 and crossed 7 percent around September 10.

Other trackers moved the other way on Friday, and we carry both. NerdWallet, using Zillow data, reported the 30-year average fell 6 basis points to 7.23 percent APR on Friday, though it was still 19 basis points above a week earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly survey is still 7.03 percent for September 24 and MBA's contract rate is 7.12 percent for the week ending September 18; neither has captured this week's full move. The daily indexes differ by lender panel, loan assumptions and time of day, so a small rise on one and a small drop on another is not a contradiction.

On a $320,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.49 percent comes to about $2,235 a month, against about $2,227 at Thursday's 7.45 percent, $2,135 at Freddie Mac's 7.03 percent, $2,076 at the 6.75 percent reading of August 26 and $1,917 at MND's 52-week low of 5.99 percent. That is our arithmetic on a standard 30-year amortization, before taxes, insurance and HOA dues; the spread from late August is about $159 a month.

Consumer sentiment: 48.1 and inflation expectations at 4.6 percent

The University of Michigan's final September Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 48.1, per Quartz and a MarketScreener headline, above the preliminary 47.8 and a consensus near 47.5 to 47.6, and down from 51.7 in August. Quartz called it the lowest reading in four months and 15 percent below January 2026. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6 percent, which Quartz described as the highest since June and up from 3.4 percent before the Iran conflict began; a search summary we could not open to its source put August's figure at 4.0 percent. CNN's headline Friday said Americans feel worse about the economy than at almost any point in modern history.

For housing, the inflation-expectations number matters more than the headline index. The Fed watches expectations when deciding whether to raise rates, and the bond market prices that decision into the 10-year yield that mortgage rates follow. Also Friday, August durable goods orders were flat at 0.0 percent against a 0.4 percent decline expected, per an InvestingLive headline listed in MND's Friday newsletter.

Treasuries, oil and the Fed

The 10-year Treasury yield finished Friday at 5.17 percent, per Advisor Perspectives, with the 2-year at 4.81 percent. Trading Economics' bond table read 5.165 percent, about 4 basis points lower on the day, and MND's table showed 5.203 percent at 3:19 p.m. with the 30-year Treasury at 5.519 percent. Yesterday's brief had MND's Friday-morning 10-year at 5.164 percent. CNBC's headline Friday said the 10-year was little changed to end a volatile week.

Brent crude fell about 2.1 percent to $104.32 on Friday on Trading Economics' series, from $106.60 Thursday, after Iran's foreign minister proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks within seven days if the U.S. accepts conditions that include lifting its naval blockade. Trading Economics said Brent still finished more than 1 percent higher for the week and is up about 20 percent over the past month. WTI fell about 2.3 percent to $92.41.

October odds edged up. A search summary citing CME FedWatch put the probability of a quarter-point hike at the October 28 meeting at 75.8 percent as of September 25; we did not read the FedWatch page directly and carry the number as reported. Yesterday's brief carried 70 percent from a QSG note and 73.5 percent from FedWatch on September 24. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent at its September 15 and 16 meeting.

Florida insurance: Citizens near 255,000 policies

Citizens Property Insurance President Timothy Cerio said at Wednesday's board meeting in Lake Mary that the state-backed insurer had nearly 255,000 policies as of September 18, against about 1.4 million in September 2023, per Florida Realtors' September 24 report with News Service Florida. Cerio projected about 248,000 by year end and said the figure could fall further. Our September 24 brief carried 266,231 for August from the same meeting; the two are different dates and together show a decline of roughly 11,000 policies in a few weeks.

Total insured value is where the framings differ. Florida Realtors quotes Cerio putting Citizens' exposure at about $70 billion, down from $552 billion three years ago. Our September 24 brief carried an expected $85 billion for this year against $553 billion in 2023. We carry both; the first reads as a current figure and the second as a year-end projection, but we have not confirmed which basis each uses.

The same report lists the Office of Insurance Regulation's four newest homeowners rate decreases, ranging from 3.2 to 10.4 percent on more than 62,000 policies at renewal, with pending requests ranging from 0.3 to 19.7 percent decreases. OIR's market overview lists an average admitted-market homeowners premium of $3,736 including wind, which excludes Citizens and surplus lines. Commissioner Mike Yaworsky said he expects "more aggressive rate cuts" into 2027. Cerio said homeowners facing a large renewal increase should shop the private market. Our August insurance article has the earlier filings.

Brightline: parent entities file Chapter 11

Brightline Holdings LLC and certain other parent entities of the Miami-to-Orlando passenger railroad filed for Chapter 11 on Thursday, September 24, in federal bankruptcy court in New Jersey, per Bloomberg as published by Insurance Journal on September 25; Quartz and other outlets reported the filing Friday. The operating company, Brightline Trains Florida LLC, is not in the filing and trains continue to run. The company is restructuring a debt stack Bloomberg put at $5.5 billion. Bond insurer Assured Guaranty and other investors are providing $258 million of post-petition funding, and supporting stakeholders committed $490 million of new long-term capital on exit, per Insurance Journal and Quartz.

Brightline said year-to-date ridership and revenue through August rose 14 and 17 percent from 2025. Debtwire's Tim Hynes told the Associated Press, as quoted by Quartz, that roughly 3.5 million annual riders and about $240 million in revenue are fewer than half the passengers and a third of the income forecast in 2024. The entities holding South Florida commuter rights and Tampa development rights are not part of the case, and the company says it still plans more stations and an Orlando to Tampa extension. For Florida housing, this is a watch item for station-area development along the South Florida and Orlando corridor rather than a price signal; the filing does not change service today.

What this means for Northeast Florida

For a First Coast buyer, the week's move is about $159 a month on a $320,000 loan compared with late August, and the headline weekly survey still trails what lenders were quoting on Friday. The insurance side keeps moving the other way: private carriers are filing decreases and Citizens keeps shrinking, which is a cost offset worth pricing into a quote rather than assuming. Brightline does not serve Jacksonville. The 2026 Jacksonville market page, the Jacksonville August median price page and our Florida migration page carry the running local series.

What we are not saying

We are not calling the October decision; the 75.8 percent figure comes from a search summary, not the FedWatch page itself. MND and Zillow moved in opposite directions on Friday by small amounts, and both are correct for their own panels. A search result showed MND's Friday article under a headline saying rates dropped slightly, with a 7.43 percent figure; we could not open that page, and MND's own newsletter table shows 7.49 percent, up 0.04, so we use the table. The two Citizens exposure figures may measure different things. The Brightline filing covers parent entities, not the train operator. Every figure carries its source and date.

People also ask

What is the mortgage rate on September 26, 2026?

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index was 7.49 percent at the Friday, September 25 close, up 4 basis points from Thursday and 30 basis points on the week. Zillow data via NerdWallet showed 7.23 percent APR Friday. Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 7.03 percent for September 24. Rates rarely change on weekends, so Friday's levels generally hold until Monday.

What was consumer sentiment in September 2026?

The University of Michigan's final September index was 48.1, down from 51.7 in August and above the preliminary 47.8, per Quartz and MarketScreener. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6 percent, the highest since June.

How many policies does Citizens Property Insurance have?

Citizens President Timothy Cerio said the insurer had nearly 255,000 policies as of September 18, 2026, down from about 1.4 million in September 2023, and projected about 248,000 by year end, per Florida Realtors on September 24.

Is Brightline still running after its bankruptcy filing?

Yes. The Chapter 11 filing on September 24 covers Brightline Holdings LLC and certain other parent entities. The operating company, Brightline Trains Florida LLC, is not in the filing and trains continue to run between Miami and Orlando, per Insurance Journal and Quartz.

Sources

• Mortgage News Daily, Daily Newsletter and rate table, "Mortgage Rates Had a Better Day, But Still Moved Higher", September 25, 2026: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260925
• Yahoo Finance, Claire Boston, "Mortgage rates creep toward new high of 7.5%", September 25, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/mortgage-rates-creep-toward-new-high-of-75-172359287.html
• NerdWallet, Abby Doyle, "Mortgage Rates Today, Friday, September 25: A Little Relief, but Still Above 7%", September 25, 2026: https://www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/news/mortgage-rates-today-friday-september-25-2026
• Quartz, Cris Tolomia, "U.S. consumer sentiment is sinking to a four-month low as inflation fears deepen", September 25, 2026: https://qz.com/university-michigan-consumer-sentiment-september-2026-092526
• MarketScreener, "September Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 48.1", September 25, 2026 (headline): https://www.marketscreener.com/news/september-final-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-48-1-vs-expected-47-5-preliminary-47-8-ce785adfde8bf320
• CNN Business, "Americans still feel worse about the economy than at almost any point in modern history", September 25, 2026 (headline): https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/25/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-final-september
• Advisor Perspectives, "Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 25, 2026": https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/25/treasury-yields-snapshot-september-25-2026
• CNBC, "10-year Treasury yield is little changed to end a volatile week", September 25, 2026 (headline): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/treasury-yields-bonds-debt.html
• Trading Economics, Brent crude page and bond table (read September 26, 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
• Florida Realtors, Amy Connolly, "Florida approves more home insurance rate cuts", September 24, 2026: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/florida-approves-more-home-insurance-rate-cuts
• Insurance Journal (Bloomberg), Eliza Ronalds-Hannon, "Florida's Private Railroad, Brightline, Files for Bankruptcy", September 25, 2026: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2026/09/25/886892.htm
• Quartz, Cris Tolomia, "Florida's Brightline filed for bankruptcy, weighed down by $5.5 billion in debt", September 25, 2026: https://qz.com/brightline-chapter-11-bankruptcy-restructuring-debt-092526

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.