Data Analysis

Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in September 2026 and 3.7 percent over the prior 12 months, as gasoline jumped 9.1 percent in the month, while shelter costs rose 0.4 percent and 3.2 percent over the year.

BLS reported September CPI on October 14. Energy rose 20.4 percent over the year; core prices excluding food and energy rose 2.6 percent.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September 2026 and 3.7 percent over the 12 months ended in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Gasoline rose 9.1 percent in the month and 34.2 percent over the year, and the energy index rose 20.4 percent over the year. The index for all items less food and energy, known as core CPI, rose 0.3 percent in September and 2.6 percent over the year. Shelter, the largest housing component, rose 0.4 percent in the month and 3.2 percent over the year. Food prices were unchanged in September.

What was the inflation rate in September 2026?

The 12-month increase in the all items CPI was 3.7 percent in September 2026, up from 3.4 percent in August, as reported in our August CPI article. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.6 percent, a faster pace than August's 0.4 percent.

Energy drove the increase. The energy index rose 5.2 percent in September after seasonal adjustment. Gasoline rose 9.1 percent seasonally adjusted, and 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. Over 12 months, energy was up 20.4 percent and gasoline 34.2 percent. Food was unchanged over the month and up 2.5 percent over the year.

Is core inflation rising?

Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3 percent in September and 2.6 percent over 12 months. The gap between headline inflation at 3.7 percent and core inflation at 2.6 percent is the energy shock showing up in the overall index. Core is the measure economists use to judge whether higher fuel costs are spreading into other prices, and at 2.6 percent it remains well below the headline rate.

The chart shows the 12-month change in headline CPI computed from the seasonally adjusted index. It rose from 2.4 percent early in 2026 to a peak of 4.2 percent in May, eased through the summer and turned up again in August and September.

What happened to shelter and rent costs?

Shelter rose 0.4 percent in September and 3.2 percent over the year. Within shelter, owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent and rent of primary residence rose 0.2 percent in the month. Owners' equivalent rent is an estimate of what homeowners would pay to rent their own homes. It does not measure home prices or mortgage payments, which CPI excludes because buying a home is treated as an investment.

The 12-month shelter increase of 3.2 percent compares with 3.0 percent in August. Shelter changes slowly because leases reset only once a year, so CPI shelter tends to lag market rents by many months.

What does 3.7 percent inflation mean for mortgage rates?

The Federal Reserve targets 2 percent inflation, and a headline rate of 3.7 percent with energy rising quickly works against near-term rate cuts. Mortgage rates track longer-term Treasury yields, which respond to inflation and to what investors expect inflation to be.

Those expectations are moving up. The University of Michigan reported on October 23 that consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent in October and long-run expectations to 3.5 percent, as covered in our October consumer sentiment article. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed-rate average was 7.40 percent in the week ending October 15, the day after this report, and 7.32 percent on October 22, compared with 6.19 percent a year earlier. Our mortgage rate article covers the weekly survey.

What does it mean for Florida households?

The national CPI release does not include a Florida figure. BLS publishes separate indexes for the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater areas on their own schedules, and those were not part of the national release text cited here.

Fuel is the part of the index most Florida households notice first, because most commutes are by car. Housing costs in Florida also carry pressures that CPI shelter does not capture well, including homeowners insurance and property taxes that flow through mortgage escrow accounts. Our escrow shortage calculator estimates how those changes affect a monthly payment. Statewide home prices held at a $415,000 single-family median in September, according to Florida Realtors, as covered in our Florida housing market September report. Local series are on the Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville market pages.

When is the next CPI report?

BLS has scheduled the October 2026 CPI for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Before then, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes September personal income and outlays, including the PCE price index the Federal Reserve uses for its inflation target, on Thursday, October 29.

People also ask

What is the CPI inflation rate for September 2026?

The all items CPI rose 3.7 percent over the 12 months ended in September 2026 and 0.6 percent in the month, seasonally adjusted, according to BLS.

What is core inflation in September 2026?

Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.6 percent over the 12 months ended in September 2026 and 0.3 percent in the month.

How much did gas prices rise in September 2026?

The CPI gasoline index rose 9.1 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis and 34.2 percent over the prior 12 months.

Did rent inflation go up in September 2026?

Shelter rose 0.4 percent in September and 3.2 percent over the year, up from 3.0 percent in August. Rent of primary residence rose 0.2 percent in the month.

Limitations

CPI figures are national averages for urban consumers and can be revised for seasonal factors. This article does not cite Miami or Tampa CPI figures because they were not in the national release text. The chart's 12-month changes are Momentum Research calculations from the seasonally adjusted index as published in the FRED database and can differ by a tenth of a point from BLS's published not seasonally adjusted 12-month change; no October 2025 index was published. Inflation expectations and mortgage rates come from other publishers with separate methods, and no forecast of rates is made here.

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for September 2026, released October 14, 2026, bls.gov. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, final results for October 2026, released October 23, 2026. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weeks ending October 15 and October 22, 2026. Florida Realtors, September 2026 statewide housing data, released October 16, 2026. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED series CPIAUCSL.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.