Data Analysis

Zillow reported that asking rents in Tampa were 0.1 percent lower in August 2026 than a year earlier, one of only three declines among the 50 largest metropolitan areas, while rents nationally rose 2.5 percent.

All four Florida metros in Zillow's table grew more slowly than the country, and three of the four sat in the bottom half of the 50. Jacksonville's 1.8 percent was the fastest rent growth in the state and still ranked 28th.

Asking rents in Tampa were 0.1 percent lower in August 2026 than a year earlier, according to Zillow's August rent report published September 16, one of only three declines among the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Rents nationally rose 2.5 percent to a typical asking rent of $1,948. The other three Florida metros in the table grew, and all three grew more slowly than the country: Jacksonville 1.8 percent, Miami 1.6 percent, Orlando 0.7 percent.

Four Florida metros appear in Zillow's 50-metro table. All four came in below the national rate. Ranked by rent growth from fastest to slowest, Jacksonville sits 28th, Miami 32nd, Orlando 41st and Tampa 48th. The three metros where rents fell outright were Tampa, Denver at -0.6 percent and San Antonio at -1.3 percent.

How weak is Florida rent growth compared with the rest of the country?

The national range runs from San Francisco at 10.8 percent to San Antonio at -1.3 percent. Florida's four occupy a narrow band near the bottom of it, from 1.8 percent down to -0.1 percent, a spread of 1.9 points against a national spread of 12.1 points. Twenty-eight of the 50 metros grew more slowly than the national figure, so being below average is not unusual on its own. Having every metro in the state below average, with one of the country's three declines, is the part worth noting.

The fast-growing rental markets in this table are elsewhere. San Francisco at 10.8 percent, San Jose at 7.6 percent, Virginia Beach at 6.6 percent, Milwaukee at 5.0 percent and Chicago at 4.9 percent lead it. None of the top ten is in Florida.

What are the actual rent levels in Florida?

Miami is the most expensive of the four at a Zillow Observed Rent Index of $2,666, which is above the national $1,948 and ninth highest among the 50 metros. Tampa is $2,001, Orlando $1,942 and Jacksonville $1,696. So Florida's rent levels sit at or above the national figure in three of four metros while its rent growth sits below it in all four. High rents, going nowhere.

Does renting still beat buying in Florida?

Zillow's table puts the national gap between a typical new buyer's monthly payment and the typical asking rent at $1,066 a month, or $12,792 a year. Every Florida metro shows a larger dollar gap than that: Miami $1,530, Orlando $1,315, Jacksonville $1,285 and Tampa $1,100.

That comparison is less dramatic than it sounds, and the desk's own ranking of the table says why. Thirty-five of the 50 metros show a gap wider than the national figure, because the national number is an average pulled down by cheaper markets rather than a midpoint. Miami's $1,530 ranks only 22nd of 50. Measured as a share of rent, which removes the effect of Florida's high rent levels, Miami's gap is 57 percent of its rent against a national 55 percent, and Tampa's is 55 percent. Jacksonville is the Florida market where the gap is genuinely wide: a typical buyer's payment there is 1.76 times the typical rent, the highest ratio of the four and well above the national 1.55.

One assumption matters more than any of these figures. Zillow states that its buyer payment assumes "a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with 10% down at a 6.67% rate on a typical home based on the Zillow Home Value Index." Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year rate at 7.28 percent in the week of October 1, 0.61 point above that assumption. Every gap in the table would be wider at today's rate. The desk has not recalculated them, because doing so would mix Zillow's August home values with October mortgage rates and produce a number no publisher stands behind.

What else the report says

Zillow reports that 39.2 percent of rentals on its site offered concessions in August, such as free weeks or waived fees. The report does not break that share out by metro, so there is no Florida figure for it.

The report also attaches an investment calculation, stating that a renter who invests the monthly difference at the 10-year Treasury yield, 4.68 percent as of August 2026, earns an additional $322 nationally in the first year. That figure is a projection built on an assumption about what a renter does with the money, not a measurement of anything that happened, and this publication does not treat it as a finding.

What this means for Florida housing

Flat rents and falling home values are showing up together. Zillow's August market report, published September 8, put typical home values down month over month in all four Florida metros, with Tampa -0.6 percent and Orlando -1.4 percent year over year. A market where neither rents nor prices are rising is a market where the cost of waiting has fallen for buyers and the case for holding an investment property on rent growth has weakened. The desk tracks both sides of that on the Florida housing tracker and across the market hubs, including Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville.

What the report does not settle is why. Zillow offers no explanation for the Florida readings, and a rent index cannot distinguish between softer demand and a larger supply of completed apartments reaching the market. Both are consistent with what the table shows.

Limitations

The Zillow Observed Rent Index measures asking rents on new listings, not rents paid across all occupied units, so it moves ahead of what most tenants experience and is not a measure of the existing rent roll.

The table covers the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Florida has four in it. Smaller Florida markets including Cape Coral, North Port, Lakeland, Deltona, Pensacola and Tallahassee are not in this release, so nothing here describes them.

Zillow does not state whether the index is seasonally adjusted, and the post was not asked to confirm it. The year-over-year comparison used throughout this article is the figure Zillow publishes.

The rent-versus-buy columns rest on Zillow's stated assumptions of 10 percent down and a 6.67 percent mortgage rate, which was below the market rate by the time this article was written. The rankings and the share-of-rent figures in this article are the desk's calculations from Zillow's published table, not Zillow publications. Zillow's own arithmetic in the table is internally consistent: in all 51 rows, the stated monthly saving equals the buyer payment minus the rent index, and the annual saving is twelve times the monthly.

The report was read twice with transcription-only prompts, and the second read was asked explicitly how many rows the table contained and returned all 50 plus the national row. Only values identical across both reads are used.

Home value figures are from Zillow's separate August market report of September 8, 2026. Mortgage rate figures are from Freddie Mac and were verified on October 1.

Sources

Zillow Research, "Renting Is $1,066 Cheaper Per Month Than Buying and Investing It Pays Off (August Rent Report)," published September 16, 2026: https://www.zillow.com/research/august-2026-rent-report/

Zillow Research, "Elevated Rates Slow Home Sales as Buyer Demand Softens (Zillow August Market Report)," published September 8, 2026: https://www.zillow.com/research/august-2026-market-report/

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 1, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.