Data Analysis

Redfin's October 8, 2026 analysis places Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa and West Palm Beach among 24 U.S. metropolitan areas where housing costs could take at least a decade to return to 2018 norms, and Florida contributes more metros to that list than any other state.

Redfin modeled how long it would take the mortgage payment on a typical home to fall back to 30 percent of median income, the national level it held in August 2018. Nationally the answer is about five years if mortgage rates reach 6 percent, and ten or more years if rates stay between 7 and 8 percent.

Redfin published an analysis on October 8, 2026 estimating when housing costs in the country's largest metropolitan areas could return to what it calls normal, and four Florida metros landed in the slowest group. Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa and West Palm Beach are among the 24 metros Redfin says could take at least a decade, under mortgage rates anywhere between 6 and 8 percent. That is four of 24, more than any other state on the list. Ohio is next with three. No Florida metro appears among the ten markets Redfin says could normalize soonest.

Redfin defines normal as a return to the August 2018 relationship between housing costs and income. In August 2018 the national median mortgage payment took 30 percent of median household income, a level Redfin describes as a widely recognized affordability benchmark. The analysis covers the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas and includes the 46 with sufficient data.

What does Redfin mean by a return to "normal" housing costs?

The measure is a ratio, not a price. Redfin takes the monthly payment on a 30-year mortgage for the typical home in a region, adds property tax and insurance, and divides by median household income for that region. The calculation assumes a 20 percent down payment. The property tax rate is the median rate observed in the baseline period in each region, and in Redfin's words, "The insurance rate is fixed at 0.5% annually." Home prices are seasonally adjusted, and projected income growth is a compound annual rate drawn from Census data for 2015 through 2019.

Because the measure is a ratio, a metro can reach normal three different ways. Prices can fall, incomes can rise, or mortgage rates can drop. Redfin models the last of those explicitly, running five mortgage-rate paths between 6 and 8 percent that it says generally align with economists' forecasts for the next three to five years.

Redfin is careful that these are scenarios rather than forecasts, and the distinction matters. The dates in the analysis are conditional on a rate path holding and on current price growth continuing, neither of which is a prediction.

Which Florida metros are on the decade-or-more list?

Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa and West Palm Beach. All four appear in a single list Redfin introduces as "all the metros it could take at least a decade for housing costs to normalize," covering rates from 6 to 8 percent.

Miami and Orlando appear in neither of Redfin's published tables. Redfin says it analyzed 46 metros but published only the ten fastest and the 24 slowest, so 12 metros sit in a middle group the analysis does not name. Where Miami and Orlando fall inside that group is not stated.

The ten markets Redfin says could normalize soonest are San Jose, Austin, Oakland, Seattle, Portland, San Antonio, Sacramento, Denver, Los Angeles and Fort Worth. Counted by this desk, four are in California, three are in Texas, and the rest are in Washington, Oregon and Colorado. Under a 7.5 percent rate, Redfin puts San Jose at October 2027, Austin at February 2028 and Oakland at April 2028. If rates reach 6 percent, Redfin's table marks all three as already there.

Why would Florida metros take longer than California or Texas?

Redfin's release does not say, at least not about Florida. Senior economist Asad Khan frames the split regionally: "In parts of the West, home prices are falling while we expect incomes to keep rising," and "But in many Midwest and East Coast markets, home prices are still climbing faster than incomes." Neither sentence addresses Florida, and Redfin publishes current price growth and projected income growth only for the ten soonest metros and for San Francisco. The inputs behind the four Florida placements are not disclosed.

That silence is worth noting, because Florida prices have not been climbing in the readings other publishers released in the same two weeks. Zillow's September Market Report, published October 6, 2026, put the typical home value in Tampa at $357,180, down 0.5 percent from a year earlier, and in Orlando at $383,561, down 1.2 percent. Miami was $478,411, up 0.9 percent, and Jacksonville was $351,310, up 0.2 percent. Redfin's own September price-drop release, published September 30, 2026, found that the share of listings with a price cut fell year over year in Tampa, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, three of only six metros in a 50-metro table where that share declined.

So Florida home values are flat to slightly lower while Redfin's model still puts four Florida metros a decade or more from normal. A ratio has two sides, and the released material does not show the income side for these metros. This desk is not able to resolve the gap from what Redfin published.

What would it take nationally for costs to return to normal?

Redfin gives four national scenarios. If mortgage rates fall to 6 percent and home-price growth holds near 2.1 percent a year, national housing costs return to normal within about five years. If rates stay near 7.5 percent and price growth flattens, it takes about six years. If rates fall to 6 percent and prices flatten, Redfin dates the return to February 2029. If rates stay between 7 and 8 percent while prices keep growing at 2.1 percent, Redfin puts it at ten years or more.

Khan's advice to buyers is not to wait on any of it. "Many house hunters feel stuck between two bad options," he said, and "prospective buyers shouldn't get hung up on timing the market."

What does this mean for Florida buyers and sellers now?

A ten-year horizon in a scenario model is not a forecast that Florida housing stays unaffordable for ten years, and it is not a statement about any individual home. It is a statement about one ratio in four metropolitan averages under a fixed set of assumptions.

The practical reading is narrower. Redfin's model says that in Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa and West Palm Beach, the gap between what a typical payment costs and what a typical household earns is wide enough that a rate cut alone does not close it within the window Redfin modeled. Current conditions in each of those markets are on their hub pages: Tampa, Jacksonville, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Statewide and metro-level figures are collected on the Florida Housing Intelligence market pages, and the desk's running coverage is at Florida Housing Intelligence.

Limitations

Redfin published the ten fastest metros and the 24 slowest, so 12 of the 46 analyzed metros are not identified anywhere in the release. Miami and Orlando are among the metros absent from both tables.

Redfin publishes current price growth and projected income growth only for the ten soonest metros and for San Francisco. No price-growth, income-growth or scenario-specific date is published for Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa or West Palm Beach, so this article reports their placement on the decade-or-more list and nothing further about their timing.

The insurance assumption is uniform. Redfin holds the insurance rate at a fixed 0.5 percent annually for every metro in the analysis, so the model does not distinguish between regions whose insurance costs have moved differently since the 2018 baseline. The property tax rate is the median rate from the baseline period rather than a current or projected rate.

The state counts in this article's chart are this desk's own tally of Redfin's published 24-metro list, not a figure Redfin published. The metro names and the list are Redfin's.

These are scenarios conditioned on a mortgage-rate path and on current price growth continuing. Redfin states they are not predictions, and no date in the analysis should be read as one.

Sources

Redfin, "U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to 'Normal' Within 5 Years. Here's What It Would Take.," October 8, 2026, by Dana Anderson, Asad Khan and Szu Yu Chen. https://www.redfin.com/news/return-to-normal-housing-costs/

Redfin press release, "Redfin Report: U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to 'Normal' Within 5 Years," Seattle, October 8, 2026. https://www.redfin.com/news/press-releases/redfin-report-u-s-housing-costs-could-return-to-normal-within-5-years/

Zillow, "Zillow's September Market Report shows an early winter in the housing market as newly pending sales fall 8.5%," October 6, 2026. https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2026-10-06-Zillows-September-Market-Report-shows-an-early-winter-in-the-housing-market-as-newly-pending-sales-fall-8-5

Redfin, "One in Five Home Sellers Cut Prices as Buyer's Market Persists," September 30, 2026. https://www.redfin.com/news/price-drop-rate-ticks-up/

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.