Data Analysis

Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.40 percent in the week ending October 8, 2026, up from 7.28 percent a week earlier and 1.10 points above the 6.30 percent of a year ago.

The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.73 percent, up from 6.60 percent. No weekly reading has been this high since November 2023, according to Freddie Mac's own survey archive.

Freddie Mac reported today that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.40 percent for the week ending October 8, 2026. That is up from 7.28 percent the prior week and up from 6.30 percent a year ago. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.73 percent, against 6.60 percent last week and 5.53 percent a year ago. The 30-year rate has now risen for five straight weeks and sits 1.42 points above its 2026 low of 5.98 percent, recorded in the week ending February 26.

What is the 30-year mortgage rate this week?

The Primary Mortgage Market Survey is Freddie Mac's weekly average commitment rate, published every Thursday. The October 8 reading of 7.40 percent is a twelve basis point move from the week before. The 15-year rate moved thirteen basis points over the same week.

Weekly moves of that size are ordinary. The run behind this one is not. Freddie Mac's archive shows the 30-year rate at 6.71 percent in the week ending September 3, so the rate has climbed 0.69 points in five weeks. The five weekly moves, in order, were 5, 19, 8, 25 and 12 basis points. Three cleared ten points, and the largest came last week.

When were mortgage rates last this high?

Not since late 2023. Freddie Mac's published archives for 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 give a clean answer: the last week in which the 30-year average was at or above 7.40 percent was the week ending November 16, 2023, at 7.44 percent. The series peaked at 7.79 percent three weeks before that, on October 26, 2023.

Nothing in the two full years between came close. The highest weekly reading of 2024 was 7.22 percent in the week ending May 2. The highest of 2025 was 7.04 percent in the week ending January 16. The highest of 2026 before today was last week's 7.28 percent. This desk checked each of those years against Freddie Mac's own archive pages rather than relying on a single summary.

What does 7.40 percent cost a Florida buyer each month?

Florida Realtors reported a statewide median single-family sale price of $415,000 in August 2026. A buyer paying that price with 20 percent down borrows $332,000.

At 7.40 percent over 30 years, principal and interest on that loan run about $2,299 a month. At last week's 7.28 percent it was about $2,272, so this week's move costs roughly $27 a month. At the 6.30 percent of a year ago it was about $2,055, which makes the year's increase worth about $244 a month, or about $2,925 a year. Measured from February's 5.98 percent low, the gap is about $312 a month.

Those figures are principal and interest only. They exclude property taxes, insurance and any association dues, all of which carry their own weight in Florida and none of which fall when rates rise. Buyers in Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville face their own local price levels, and the statewide median is a reference point rather than a forecast of any one deal.

Why are mortgage rates rising?

The policy backdrop changed last month and has not been fully priced into how people talk about this market. At its September 15-16 meeting the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on a 12-0 vote. The minutes released October 7 record that most participants judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year end.

Those minutes also describe the mortgage market directly. They call financing conditions "somewhat restrictive for residential mortgage borrowers and small businesses," note that "Residential mortgage rates increased a bit more than 10-year Treasury yields," and record that "borrowing for home purchases remained depressed." A few participants said housing was a sector in which financial conditions did not appear supportive of activity.

There is a live disagreement here worth stating plainly rather than resolving. Redfin published a post on October 2 titled "Soft September Jobs Report May Give Fed Reason to Pause Rate Hikes, Slowing Ascent of Mortgage Rates," and another on October 5 titled "Mortgage Rates Tick Up Even as the Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Decline." The September minutes point one way and those market readings point another. This week's survey is one data point, and it moved up.

What does this mean for Florida's fall market?

Florida entered the fall with supply that had already begun to tighten. Florida Realtors reported statewide single-family inventory of 94,610 at the end of August, down 13.0 percent from a year earlier, with months of supply at 4.3 against 5.3 a year before. Closed sales ran 21,497 for the month, down 1.4 percent. Median days to contract were 44, down from 51.

A rate at 7.40 percent presses on the demand side of that picture without doing anything to the supply side. Sellers who financed at lower rates have a reason to stay put, which has held listings down through this cycle. Buyers face a payment roughly $244 a month higher than the same purchase would have carried last October. Those two pressures work against each other, and the August numbers were measured before this five-week climb.

The weekly survey is published on Thursdays. Our market data by city, county and ZIP updates on its own schedule, and the Florida Housing Intelligence front page carries each release as it lands.

Limitations

The Primary Mortgage Market Survey is an average of lender commitment rates for borrowers with strong credit putting 20 percent down. An individual quote depends on credit score, down payment, loan size, property type and occupancy, and can differ from the survey average in either direction.

Freddie Mac's current survey page for this week carried no commentary attributed to a named economist, so no quotation is used here. The page's only commentary is a general reminder that borrowers can save by comparing quotes from several lenders.

The payment figures are this desk's calculation from the published rates and a $332,000 loan, using standard amortization. They are illustrative. The $415,000 median is Florida Realtors' statewide single-family figure for August 2026 and is not a current listing price.

The week-over-week and five-week comparisons use Freddie Mac's published weekly averages without adjustment. The "highest since November 2023" statement rests on Freddie Mac's own archives for 2023 through 2026 and was checked year by year. The characterization of Fed intentions comes from the September 15-16 minutes, which predate the September employment report and any data released since.

Sources

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 8, 2026, freddiemac.com/pmms. Freddie Mac PMMS archives for 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, freddiemac.com/pmms/archive. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026, released October 7, 2026. Florida Realtors, Florida single-family summary, August 2026. Redfin News post titles as listed on redfin.com/news/ as of October 8, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.