Data Analysis

Contract signings edged up 0.3 percent from July to August 2026 and finished 4.7 percent below August 2025, with monthly gains in the South and West offset by declines in the Northeast and Midwest.

The National Association of Realtors reported that its Pending Home Sales Index rose in the South and West in August and fell in the Northeast and Midwest. Every region was lower than a year earlier, and NAR published percent changes without an index level for the month.

Pending home sales rose 0.3 percent nationally from July to August 2026 and were 4.7 percent lower than in August 2025, the National Association of Realtors reported on September 17. Contract signings increased 3.0 percent in the West and 2.3 percent in the South over the month, and fell 4.2 percent in the Northeast and 1.6 percent in the Midwest. All four regions were below their August 2025 levels, with declines of 6.7 percent in the West, 4.9 percent in the Midwest, 3.9 percent in the Northeast and 3.8 percent in the South.

What does the pending home sales index actually measure?

NAR's Pending Home Sales Index counts signed contracts rather than closings. In the association's own words, "a sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing." An index reading of 100 equals the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year NAR examined for the series.

That one or two month lag is what makes the report worth reading. August contracts become September and October closings, so the index is the earliest widely published signal of where existing-home sales are heading. It is also the reason a soft month here shows up twice, once as a pending number and again as a closing number two months later.

Which regions gained and which lost?

The month splits cleanly along a line. The two regions where signings rose, the West at 3.0 percent and the South at 2.3 percent, are the two with the most for-sale inventory relative to last year. The two where signings fell, the Northeast at 4.2 percent and the Midwest at 1.6 percent, are the two NAR identifies as having the fastest price growth in August.

The annual comparison erases that split. Every region was down against August 2025, and the largest annual drop belongs to the West at 6.7 percent, the same region with the largest monthly gain. A region can improve on a weak July and still sit well below a stronger August a year earlier, and the West did both.

What did NAR's chief economist say?

"Buyers steadily entered into contracts in August even though mortgage rates increased," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "However, the housing market is still sluggish, with contract signings below last year. This is due to higher mortgage rates offsetting the increased buying power created by job gains and income growth outpacing home price growth."

On the regional pattern, Yun said: "The Northeast and the Midwest saw the fastest home price growth in August, which is part of the reason that those same two regions posted the steepest declines in contract signings."

He also placed the current level against the years before 2020. "Nationally, contract signings today are running roughly 30% below where they were in the years leading up to the pandemic," Yun added. "Transaction activity peaked in 2021 when mortgage rates fell to near 3%, a historic low, and has not approached that level since."

Freddie Mac's weekly survey supports the direction Yun describes. The 30-year fixed-rate average was 6.66 percent in the survey published August 27 and 6.95 percent for the week ending September 17.

What does the South's gain mean for Florida?

Florida sits inside NAR's South region, which also covers Texas, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Delaware and the District of Columbia. A regional index is not a state reading, and NAR does not publish a Florida pending sales index in this report. A 2.3 percent monthly gain across that footprint says nothing specific about Miami or Tampa.

Florida's own contract data comes from a different publisher and a different method. Florida Realtors reported 22,522 new pending single-family sales in August 2026, down 2.8 percent from August 2025, and 7,897 new pending condominium and townhouse sales, up 1.2 percent. Those are counts of contracts reported through member associations, and NAR's figure is a seasonally adjusted index of contract activity across a region, so the two are measured differently and should not be subtracted from one another. Read together they describe a state whose single-family contract volume is running behind last year while its condominium segment has stabilized.

The rest of the Florida picture for the same month is on the Florida market page and the metro hubs for Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. Florida's unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent in August, so the job gains Yun credits with lifting buying power are visible in the state's own labor data.

Why is there no index level in this report?

NAR's release for August gives percent changes and no index reading for the month, either nationally or by region. That is unusual for this series, which normally prints a level alongside each change. The desk checked the wire release and NAR's own newsroom page and found percent changes in both.

Rather than derive a level from July's reading and this month's percentage, which would produce a number NAR never published, this article reports the changes alone. A calculated index value would look like a figure from the source and would not be one.

What happens next?

NAR's September Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for release on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Existing-home sales for September follow on Tuesday, October 13. August's contracts should appear in closing data over the next two months, which is the check on whether the small national gain held.

Limitations

The national and regional percent changes above come from NAR's Pending Home Sales report for August 2026, released September 17, 2026, and were confirmed on two NAR surfaces, the association's newsroom release and its pending home sales statistics page. The Yun quotations are reproduced from the newsroom release.

NAR published no index level for August 2026 in the material reviewed, so none appears here. The index is seasonally adjusted and is revised as later data arrives. Pending sales are contracts, and contracts fall through, so the index measures intent to buy rather than completed transactions.

The South region covers sixteen states and the District of Columbia, and its movement does not describe Florida. Florida Realtors pending sales counts cover transactions reported through member associations and exclude for-sale-by-owner deals and much new construction sold directly by builders. Freddie Mac rate figures are national survey averages rather than quoted Florida rates, and the Florida unemployment rate comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of September 18.

Sources

National Association of Realtors, "NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 0.3% Increase in August," released September 17, 2026, nar.realtor/newsroom.

National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales research page, nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales.

National Association of Realtors, 2026 statistical news release schedule, nar.realtor/press-releases/nar-statistical-news-release-schedule.

Florida Realtors, August 2026 monthly market detail for single-family homes and for townhouses and condominiums, floridarealtors.org.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weeks ending August 27 and September 17, 2026, freddiemac.com/pmms.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "State Employment and Unemployment Summary," August 2026 results, released September 18, 2026, bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.