Data Analysis

Zillow reported for-sale inventory down 13.9 percent in Miami and 12.4 percent in Jacksonville in September 2026, while national active inventory rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier.

Home values in all four Florida metros Zillow tracks were flat or lower on the month, and none grew faster than the 1 percent national pace over the year. Zillow put the typical US home value at $366,913.

Zillow published its September 2026 Market Report on October 6, and the Florida rows in it run against the national trend in one specific way. For-sale inventory nationally rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier, to about 1.39 million homes. In the four Florida metros Zillow's table covers, inventory fell: Miami down 13.9 percent, Jacksonville down 12.4 percent, Tampa down 6.2 percent and Orlando down 1.8 percent. Home values in all four were flat or down on the month, and none of them grew faster over the year than the 1 percent national gain.

Why is Florida inventory falling while the country's is rising?

The gap is the most striking thing in the release for anyone watching this state. The national number and the Florida numbers point in opposite directions, and the two largest Florida declines are double-digit.

Zillow does not explain the Florida metros individually, so the honest answer is that this release shows the divergence rather than the reason for it. What can be said is that it is consistent with what Florida Realtors reported for August, when statewide single-family inventory was 94,610, down 13.0 percent from a year earlier, with months of supply at 4.3 against 5.3. Two different publishers, two different methods, the same direction.

Falling inventory in a market with soft prices is an unusual combination. It generally means listings are leaving the market rather than selling, or that fewer are arriving to begin with.

How much did Florida home values change in September?

Zillow's Home Value Index is a modeled estimate of the typical home value, not an average of what sold. For September it put the typical US home at $366,913, up 1 percent on the year and down 0.5 percent on the month.

The four Florida metros, with Zillow's month-over-month and year-over-year changes:

Miami, $478,411, unchanged on the month and up 0.9 percent on the year. Orlando, $383,561, down 0.2 percent and down 1.2 percent. Tampa, $357,180, down 0.4 percent and down 0.5 percent. Jacksonville, $351,310, down 0.1 percent and up 0.2 percent.

Miami's typical value is about 30 percent above the national figure. Orlando runs about 5 percent above it, Tampa about 3 percent below and Jacksonville about 4 percent below. Those gaps are this desk's arithmetic from Zillow's own numbers.

Zillow's sales nowcast column, which is a different measure from the national pending-sales figure, showed Orlando up 5.9 percent from a year earlier, Jacksonville up 3.5 percent, Tampa up 0.5 percent and Miami down 3 percent.

What are rents doing in Florida's metros?

Rent is where the report's national story is strongest, and the Florida rows track it. Zillow put the typical US rent at $1,932 in September, up 2.7 percent from a year earlier and up 0.1 percent from August.

Miami's typical rent was $2,654, up 1.8 percent on the year and about 37 percent above the national figure. Tampa was $1,991, up 0.4 percent. Orlando was $1,929, up 0.8 percent and essentially level with the national typical rent. Jacksonville was $1,680, up 2.2 percent and about 13 percent below national.

Three of the four Florida metros had rent growth below the national 2.7 percent.

What does the national picture look like?

Newly pending sales fell 8.5 percent from a year earlier and 11.2 percent from August. New listings came to 343,311, up 0.4 percent on the year. The median home went pending in 29 days, two days slower than a year earlier. Price cuts appeared on 27.4 percent of listings, against 26.2 percent a year earlier.

Mischa Fisher, chief economist at Zillow, said in the release that "The for-sale market's slowdown was predictable given where mortgage rates currently stand," and went on to describe the rental market's continued strength as the more surprising half, with renting's monthly savings looking too good for marginal buyers to pass up even when they still intend to buy eventually.

The affordability arithmetic in the release supports that framing. Zillow put the typical monthly mortgage payment at $1,922, up 6.7 percent from a year earlier, taking 34.3 percent of median household income against 33.7 percent a year ago. Rent took 26.3 percent, down from 26.4 percent. The eight-point gap between those two shares is what Fisher is describing.

Readers tracking their own market can find Florida figures on our Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville hubs, with city, county and ZIP detail in our market data, and the latest releases on the Florida Housing Intelligence front page.

Limitations

Zillow's metro table covers the 50 largest US metropolitan areas, and only four of them are in Florida. Nothing here describes Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Sarasota, Naples, Fort Myers, Daytona, Pensacola, Ocala or any other Florida market, and no inference about them should be drawn from these four.

The metro sales column is Zillow's sales nowcast. The national 8.5 percent decline is newly pending sales. Those are different measures and are reported separately here for that reason, not compared.

The Zillow Home Value Index is a modeled index covering a defined set of homes. It is not a median sale price and will not match the medians Florida Realtors reports, which are drawn from closed transactions. The two answer different questions.

Zillow's metropolitan area definitions are not the same as this publication's hub geographies, so a Zillow Miami figure covers a different footprint than our Miami hub.

Every figure above is as published by Zillow on October 6, 2026. Zillow revises these series. The comparisons of metro values and rents to the national figures, and the eight-point income-share gap, are this desk's arithmetic from the report's own numbers.

Sources

Zillow, September 2026 Market Report, published October 6, 2026, read on Zillow's media room at zillow.mediaroom.com and confirmed against the same release on investors.zillowgroup.com. Florida Realtors, Florida single-family market summary, August 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.