Data Analysis

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points to 29 in October 2026, its lowest reading since June 2012, as 43% of builders cut prices and buyer traffic dropped to 18.

NAHB's October builder survey, released October 19, fell to a 14-year low. The South's three-month average, which includes Florida, slipped to 30.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points to 29 in October 2026, the lowest reading since June 2012, the National Association of Home Builders reported on October 19. The share of builders cutting prices rose to 43%, the highest share since at least 2020, and the average cut held at 6%. Prospective buyer traffic fell five points to 18. In the South, the region that includes Florida, the three-month moving average slipped one point to 30.

Any reading below 50 means more builders rate conditions as poor than as good.

What is the builder confidence index for October 2026?

The headline index is 29. NAHB reported it as a three-point decline, which puts September at 32. All three components fell:

• Current sales conditions: 33, down two points.
• Sales expectations for the next six months: 32, down five points.
• Prospective buyer traffic: 18, down five points.

NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said buyer traffic is at its lowest level since April 2012, setting aside April 2020, the month the pandemic began. Expectations and traffic fell further than current sales, which means builders are more pessimistic about the coming months than about the sales they are booking now.

Why did builder confidence fall?

NAHB tied the drop to mortgage rates. NAHB chairman Bill Owens, a builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio, said in the release that "Mortgage rates have climbed well above 7% in recent weeks." He also pointed to higher gas prices, inflation, construction loan and material costs, and diesel costs. More than one third of builders reported immigration enforcement activity in their market areas during the past month, according to the release.

Dietz said housing remains constrained by supply and affordability, and that higher rates, construction costs and weaker consumer confidence are keeping buyers on the sidelines.

Freddie Mac's survey backs up the rate point. The 30-year fixed average was 7.40% in the weeks ending October 8 and October 15, the highest since November 2023, and eased to 7.32% on October 22, as covered in our October 22 mortgage rates article. The University of Michigan's final October consumer sentiment index was 48.0, covered in our consumer sentiment article.

How many builders are cutting prices?

43% of builders surveyed reported cutting prices in October, which NAHB says is the highest share in the 2020 to 2026 period it tracks. The average price cut was 6%, unchanged for the seventh straight month. 65% of builders used sales incentives, the 19th straight month at or above 60%.

For buyers, the incentive share matters as much as the price cut share. A rate buydown funded by a builder changes the monthly payment on a new home without changing its list price, which is one reason new construction can compete with resale homes when rates are high.

How is the South doing compared with other regions?

NAHB publishes regional readings as three-month moving averages. In October:

• Northeast: 38, down one point.
• Midwest: 40, down three points.
• South: 30, down one point.
• West: 26, down two points.

The South, which includes Florida, has the second lowest regional reading. Only the West is weaker. NAHB does not publish a Florida figure, so the South reading is the closest proxy in this survey.

What does this mean for Florida new construction?

Florida builders are doing what the national survey describes. Our MLS read of Lee County, published October 26, found that new construction took 57 of 101 Lehigh Acres contracts in the two weeks to October 25, 2026, and that builder price cuts there were smaller than resale cuts. That article is at Fort Myers and Lehigh Acres new construction contracts.

On the supply side, the Census Bureau's September construction report, covered in our September housing starts article, found that the year-over-year drop in completions was the only headline change outside its margin of error. Low builder confidence tends to show up later as fewer starts. The next Census report on starts and permits will show whether October's sentiment carried into construction.

For a buyer comparing a new home with a resale home in Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa or Fort Myers, the October survey points to more room to negotiate on price and incentives with builders. For a seller of a resale home in a market with active new construction, it means competing with builders who are willing to buy down rates.

People also ask

What is the NAHB Housing Market Index?

A monthly survey of home builders by the National Association of Home Builders, sponsored by Wells Fargo. It rates current sales, expected sales over the next six months and buyer traffic. A score above 50 means more builders see conditions as good than poor.

Is builder confidence at a record low?

No. NAHB says October 2026's reading of 29 is the lowest since June 2012, so readings before that were lower.

How many builders are cutting prices in 2026?

43% of builders cut prices in October 2026, with an average cut of 6%. 65% offered sales incentives.

When is the next builder confidence report?

NAHB's release schedule lists November 17, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET, then December 16, 2026.

Limitations

The September values in the chart are derived from the point changes NAHB reported for October. NAHB's history tables were not retrievable for this article, so this article carries no longer-term chart of the index. The history is published by NAHB at nahb.org.

The index is a sentiment survey of NAHB member builders. It measures how builders rate conditions, not sales, starts or prices. NAHB publishes no Florida or metro breakdown, and the South figure is a three-month moving average, so it moves more slowly than the national monthly reading.

The Lee County contract figures come from this publication's MLS analysis, a different source and a different measure. The Freddie Mac, University of Michigan and Census figures are from those publishers' own releases as reported in this publication.

Sources

National Association of Home Builders, "Builder Sentiment Falls on Rising Rates," press release, October 19, 2026, nahb.org. Components, price cut and incentive shares, regional averages, and quotes from Bill Owens and Robert Dietz.

National Association of Home Builders, Eye on Housing, Robert Dietz, October 19, 2026, eyeonhousing.org, for the same figures on a second publisher page.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index release dates, nahb.org, for the November 17 and December 16, 2026 release dates.

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weeks ending October 8, 15 and 22, 2026, as reported in this publication on October 23, 2026.

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, final October 2026, as reported in this publication on October 23, 2026.

U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, September 2026, as reported in this publication on October 20, 2026.

Momentum Research analysis of MLS contract records, Lee County, October 12 to 25, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.