Data Analysis

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on October 28, 2026, in a 10-2 vote in which two members dissented in favor of another quarter-point increase.

The FOMC paused after September's hike. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted another quarter point; the statement upgraded growth to a strong pace.

The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, in a statement released at 2:00 p.m. ET. The vote was 10-2. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack dissented because they preferred to raise the range by a quarter percentage point. The Committee raised the range to its current level at its September meeting. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed mortgage average was 7.32 percent in the week ending October 22.

What did the Federal Reserve decide on October 28, 2026?

It left the policy rate where it was. The statement says the Committee decided to maintain the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent and to continue its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

The implementation note released alongside the statement sets the technical rates that take effect October 29. The interest rate paid on reserve balances stays at 3.90 percent. The overnight reverse repurchase offering rate stays at 3.75 percent. The primary credit rate at the discount window and the standing overnight repurchase rate are both 4.0 percent.

On the balance sheet, the directive tells the New York Fed's trading desk to roll over all principal payments from Treasury securities at auction and to reinvest all principal payments from agency securities into Treasury bills. Agency mortgage-backed securities are part of that agency principal, so the Fed's mortgage holdings continue to run off into bills rather than being replaced with new mortgage bonds.

Why did two members vote for a rate hike?

The statement records that Cook and Hammack voted against the action because they preferred to raise the target range by 1/4 percentage point. It gives no further reasoning for the dissents. Their individual explanations, if they publish them, and the minutes on November 18 will say more.

A two-vote split toward tighter policy is a change in tone from September. At that meeting the Committee voted 12-0 to raise the range by a quarter point. The minutes of that meeting, covered in our September FOMC minutes article, said most participants judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Two members wanted that increase now. Ten preferred to wait.

How did the statement change from September?

Three changes stand out when the two statements are read side by side.

Growth was upgraded. September described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace. October says it is expanding at a strong pace, with resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth and robust capital investment.

The forward language changed. September said the hike would support a timelier return to the 2 percent goal. October says the Committee will gather more information to decide the policy stance needed for a timely return of inflation to 2 percent, and adds a short sentence: "The Committee will deliver price stability."

The inflation and labor descriptions did not change. Both statements say inflation remains elevated, that job gains have kept pace with the workforce and that the unemployment rate has changed little. Both also say uncertainty remains elevated, partly because of geopolitical developments.

What does the Fed decision mean for mortgage rates?

The Fed does not set mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate follows longer-term Treasury yields, which move on what investors expect the Fed to do over several years and on inflation.

Going into the meeting, Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year average at 7.32 percent for the week ending October 22, down from 7.40 percent the week before and up from 6.19 percent a year earlier, as covered in our October 22 mortgage rates article. September CPI was up 3.7 percent from a year earlier, with gasoline up 34.2 percent and shelter up 3.2 percent, according to the BLS and our September CPI article.

A hold with two hawkish dissents and a pledge to "deliver price stability" does not point to lower rates soon. The first survey that reflects the decision is Freddie Mac's next release, on Thursday, October 29, at noon ET. This article makes no forecast of that figure.

What does it mean for Florida buyers and sellers?

Florida's market was already absorbing rates above 7 percent. Florida Realtors reported a statewide single-family median sale price of $415,000 in September 2026, up 1.2 percent from a year earlier, while closed sales fell 3.5 percent to 20,537. New pending single-family sales fell 7.6 percent to 19,809, and months supply dropped to 4.4 from 5.1, as covered in our September Florida housing market article.

Falling pending sales point to fewer closings in the next two months. A policy rate held at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, with a minority pushing for more, leaves the cost of financing where it was when those contracts slowed. Cash buyers and the upper end of the market, which Florida Realtors' chief economist said "continues to perform quite well," are less exposed to that than first-time buyers using FHA or conventional loans.

Market conditions differ across the state. The desk tracks them on the Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando and Miami pages, and statewide and national coverage runs on the Florida Housing Intelligence front page. Our October 26 brief set out the full release week.

When is the next Fed meeting?

The Federal Reserve's calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for December 8-9, 2026, with the decision on December 9. December is a projections meeting, so it will include the Summary of Economic Projections and the median path for the policy rate. Minutes of the October meeting are scheduled for November 18 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

People also ask

Did the Fed raise rates in October 2026?

No. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on October 28, 2026. Two of twelve voting members, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, preferred a quarter-point increase.

What is the federal funds rate now?

The target range is 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The interest rate on reserve balances is 3.90 percent and the primary credit rate is 4.0 percent, effective October 29, 2026.

When did the Fed last change rates?

At its September 15-16, 2026 meeting, when it voted 12-0 to raise the target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.

Will mortgage rates go down after the October Fed meeting?

The Fed's decision does not set mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.32 percent on October 22, and its next weekly reading posts October 29 at noon ET.

When is the next Fed meeting?

December 8-9, 2026, with the decision and new economic projections on December 9.

Limitations

This article is written from the Federal Reserve's statement and implementation note only. The Chair's press conference began at 2:30 p.m. ET, and nothing said there is quoted or summarized here. The statement gives no reasons for the two dissents.

The comparison with September uses the Fed's September 16, 2026 statement and the minutes released October 7. The statement does not describe the housing market, and no claim about the Committee's view of housing is made here beyond what the September minutes recorded.

Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac's weekly survey average of lender quotes, not a transaction measure, and the figure cited predates the decision. Florida Realtors figures cover existing homes sold through Florida's Multiple Listing Services and are subject to revision. No long-run chart of the federal funds target is included because the FRED series could not be retrieved from either of the desk's machines today; the chart shows the weekly 30-year mortgage rate instead.

Sources

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement," October 28, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Implementation Note issued October 28, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a1.htm

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC meeting calendars: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 22, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026, via our CPI article.

Florida Realtors, September 2026 single-family market report, released October 16, 2026, via our September Florida housing market article.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.