Market Brief

Florida voters decide Amendment 3 today, which would raise the homestead exemption from non-school property taxes from $51,411 to up to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, while the 30-year mortgage rate sits at 7.24%.

Amendment 3 needs 60% to pass. State estimates put the local revenue cut near $4.9 billion in its first year. Rates eased into a jobs-report week.

Florida voters decide Amendment 3 today, November 3, 2026. If at least 60 percent vote yes, the homestead exemption from non-school property taxes would rise from $51,411 under current law to up to $150,000 in 2027 and up to $250,000 in 2028, according to the Pinellas County Property Appraiser. Estimates the Florida Chamber of Commerce attributes to the state's Office of Economic and Demographic Research put the cut to local property tax revenue at $4.957 billion in fiscal 2027-28, rising to $11.861 billion a year once fully in place. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average was 7.24% for the week ending October 29.

This is the Tuesday brief. No scheduled national housing release posted this morning. The University of Florida's monthly Florida consumer sentiment index is scheduled for today and had not posted on the bureau's page as of 11:15 a.m.; it will get its own article when it does.

What would Amendment 3 change for Florida homeowners?

The amendment targets the part of a homestead's tax bill that pays for counties, cities and special districts. School taxes are left alone: the first $25,000 of assessed value stays exempt from school levies, as it is today, so most homesteads would keep paying school taxes.

Per the Pinellas County Property Appraiser's FAQ on the measure, these are the changes:

• Non-school homestead exemption: $51,411 in 2026 under current law, up to $150,000 in 2027, up to $250,000 in 2028, then adjusted for inflation from 2029.
• New residents: people who become Florida residents on or after January 1, 2027 would start with a $50,000 non-school exemption, adjusted for inflation from 2028, and move to the larger amount on January 1 of their fifth year of holding a homestead exemption.
• Non-homestead property: the annual cap on assessment increases for non-school taxes would drop from 10 percent to 5 percent. School taxes on these properties stay based on market value with no cap.
• The Legislature could raise the exemption further by general law, up to a home's full remaining assessed value. The amendment sets no timing or amount for that.

Save Our Homes, portability and existing personal exemptions are unchanged. If approved, the amendment takes effect January 1, 2027. The first tax bills it would change are the ones mailed in November 2027, after the August 2027 TRIM notices.

How much would homeowners save under Amendment 3?

It depends on the home's assessed value and the local tax rate. The Pinellas appraiser offers an illustration using the 2025 countywide average non-school millage of 12.2011 mills: about $1,203 a year in 2027 and about $2,423 in 2028 for a homestead that uses the full exemption, assuming no millage changes and excluding non-ad valorem assessments such as garbage or stormwater fees.

Florida Trend, in an October 8 report, gave city-level examples for a hypothetical $250,000 assessed home: the city portion of the bill would be eliminated, worth $455 a year in Juno Beach and $2,475 in Mangonia Park. A homestead assessed below the exemption amount would owe no non-school property tax at all.

What would Amendment 3 cost local governments?

Two sources carry the state's estimate, and they agree once rounding is accounted for. The Florida Chamber of Commerce's Amendment 3 page, last modified October 23, lists the statewide revenue reduction as $4.957 billion in fiscal 2027-28, $8.776 billion in 2028-29 and $11.861 billion on a recurring basis, citing the Department of Revenue and the Office of Economic and Demographic Research. Florida Trend's October 8 report, citing the Legislature's Revenue Estimating Conference, puts the figures at about $4.9 billion in 2027, $8.7 billion in 2028 and about $11.8 billion by 2031-32. Both note the estimates hold everything else equal, so they do not account for local governments changing tax rates.

The amendment guarantees no funding level for police, fire or other services; those choices stay with each county, city and district budget, the Pinellas FAQ notes. Locally, our Amendment 3 Jacksonville budget article covers the roughly $200 million gap the city has estimated and the savings council has identified so far.

Who would pay more if Amendment 3 passes?

Florida Trend's report notes that costs could shift toward renters, businesses, newcomers and second-home owners if local governments raise millage to replace lost revenue. That shift is a possibility, not something the amendment requires. The lower 5 percent cap on non-homestead assessments works in the other direction for owners of rentals, second homes and commercial property, limiting how fast their non-school taxable values can rise.

Buyers already face a gap between what a current owner pays and what a new owner pays, because Save Our Homes caps a homestead's assessed value while a sale resets it to market value. Our Florida property tax reset article measures that gap, and the Miami-Dade listing tax bill analysis shows it on current listings. Under Amendment 3, a buyer arriving from out of state after January 1, 2027 would start with the smaller $50,000 exemption for their first years.

Why was the Amendment 3 ballot title changed?

A Leon County Circuit Court ruled the original ballot language misleading on August 5, 2026, and a revised title and summary were released August 13, according to the Florida Chamber. Today's title is "Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments."

Where are mortgage rates on Election Day?

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.24% for the week ending October 29, down from 7.32% a week earlier and the lowest of October, as covered in our October 29 mortgage rates article. The 15-year was 6.60%. Redfin economist Chen Zhao wrote on November 2 that rates have fallen about 30 to 40 basis points since their late-September peak, and that a December Federal Reserve rate increase looks "more likely than not" if data come in as expected. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, as covered in our Fed decision article; its next decision is scheduled for December 9.

What posts the rest of this week?

From the publishers' own schedules, all times ET:

• Today: UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Florida consumer sentiment for October (no time posted).
• Thursday, November 5, 12:00 p.m.: Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rates; Redfin's weekly housing market tracker follows at 1:00 p.m.
• Friday, November 6, 8:30 a.m.: BLS Employment Situation for October. The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer survey is also listed for Friday.

Redfin's third-quarter affordability report, listed for October 29, has still not appeared on redfin.com. The full list is on the release calendar. Local prices, inventory and days on market are on the Florida housing tracker and the Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa and Orlando market pages.

People also ask

What is Florida Amendment 3 on the 2026 ballot?

Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption from non-school property taxes to up to $150,000 in 2027 and up to $250,000 in 2028, from $51,411 in 2026, and lower the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10 percent to 5 percent for non-school taxes.

How many votes does Amendment 3 need to pass?

At least 60 percent of those voting on it. Current law stays in effect if it falls short.

Does Amendment 3 eliminate school property taxes?

No. The first $25,000 of a homestead's assessed value stays exempt from school taxes, as it is today, and the rest remains taxable for schools.

When would Amendment 3 lower my tax bill?

If approved, it takes effect January 1, 2027. The first bills it would change are those mailed in November 2027.

Limitations

This brief was written before polls closed and makes no prediction of the result. The statewide revenue figures are read from the Florida Chamber of Commerce's page and Florida Trend's report, both citing state estimators; the Office of Economic and Demographic Research's own financial impact document for this amendment was not readable by our fetcher, so the primary figure is not quoted directly. The two sources differ slightly ($4.957 billion versus about $4.9 billion in the first year) because of rounding and fiscal-year labels, and both are carried. Savings examples assume unchanged tax rates and will differ by county, city and home. The Redfin view is an economist's commentary, not a forecast by this publication.

Sources

Pinellas County Property Appraiser, "Proposed 2026 Florida Property Tax Amendment 3 (CS/HJR 1F) FAQs," pcpao.gov/amendment3, read November 3, 2026.

Florida Chamber of Commerce, "Florida's 2026 Property Tax Amendment 3," flchamber.com/amendment3, last modified October 23, 2026, citing the Florida Department of Revenue and the Office of Economic and Demographic Research.

Mike Vogel, Florida Trend, "Taxing Question," October 8, 2026, citing the Legislature's Revenue Estimating Conference.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 29, 2026, as reported in this publication on October 30, 2026.

Chen Zhao, Redfin, "Mortgage Rates Drop From September Highs as Midterms and Jobs Data Loom," November 2, 2026.

Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026, and meeting calendar; University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Florida consumer sentiment page, read November 3, 2026; release schedules of Freddie Mac, Redfin, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the University of Michigan as recorded in this publication's release calendar.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.