Market Brief

Florida filed 4,518 new jobless claims in the week ending October 31, down 680 from the week before, as national claims fell to 189,000 a day ahead of the October jobs report.

Florida initial jobless claims fell to 4,518 in the week ending October 31. National claims fell to 189,000. Productivity rose 3.6% in the third quarter.

Florida filed 4,518 new unemployment claims in the week ending October 31, 2026, down 680 from 5,198 the week before, according to the U.S. Department of Labor's weekly report released at 8:30 a.m. ET today. Nationally, seasonally adjusted initial claims fell 6,000 to 189,000, and the four-week average fell to 194,750. Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm business productivity rose 3.6 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, and a daily rate index put the 30-year fixed mortgage near 7.09 percent.

This is the Thursday brief. Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey posts at noon ET and will get its own article; the October jobs report follows Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

How many Florida jobless claims were filed this week?

The Department of Labor's advance state figures show 4,518 initial claims in Florida for the week ending October 31. That count is not seasonally adjusted, so it moves with holidays and school calendars and is best read against the prior week rather than against the national adjusted number. The prior week's Florida count was 5,198. Florida did not appear in the department's tables of the states with the largest weekly increases or decreases for the week ending October 24.

Florida's official jobless rate is a separate, monthly measure. The state's September rate was 4.4 percent, as covered in our Florida unemployment article, and metro rates for Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and the rest of the state are in our Florida metro unemployment article. Weekly claims are the earliest read on layoffs, which is why they matter for housing: a rise in layoffs usually shows up in claims weeks before it shows up in listings, price cuts or delinquencies.

What did the national jobless claims report show?

Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 189,000 for the week ending October 31, down 6,000 from a revised 195,000. The four-week moving average was 194,750, down 2,250 from a revised 197,000.

Continuing claims, which count people still receiving benefits and run one week behind, rose 23,000 to 1,718,000 for the week ending October 24, from a revised 1,695,000. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.1 percent. The four-week average of continuing claims was 1,709,500, up 1,000.

Read together, the two numbers say layoffs remain low while people who lose jobs are taking somewhat longer to find new ones. That combination has been the pattern for most of 2026.

What are economists expecting from Friday's October jobs report?

Forecasts differ slightly, so both are carried here:

• FactSet's median estimate, published today, is 65,000 new jobs in October, from 24 estimates ranging from 50,000 to 125,000, with the unemployment rate expected at 4.2 percent.
• Kiplinger, also writing today, put economists' expectation at about 59,000 jobs and a 4.2 percent unemployment rate. Kiplinger cited Deutsche Bank economists expecting average hourly earnings to rise 0.3 percent after 0.1 percent in September.

September's first count was 29,000 jobs with a 4.2 percent unemployment rate, as covered in our September jobs report article. Wednesday's ADP report, which counts private payrolls only, showed 86,000 jobs in October, as covered in our November 4 brief.

What did the productivity report show?

The BLS preliminary estimate for the third quarter shows nonfarm business labor productivity rose 3.6 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, as output rose 3.7 percent and hours worked rose 0.1 percent. Unit labor costs fell 0.7 percent, because hourly compensation rose 2.9 percent, less than the productivity gain.

Over the four quarters ending in the third quarter, productivity rose 2.1 percent, hourly compensation rose 4.5 percent and unit labor costs rose 2.4 percent. Second-quarter productivity was revised up 0.7 percentage point to 2.1 percent, reflecting the annual update of the national accounts. Falling unit labor costs mean less wage pressure on inflation, which is one input the Federal Reserve watches before its December 9 decision.

Where are mortgage rates this week?

The Mortgage Research Center's daily index, as reported by Fortune this morning from data available November 4, put the 30-year fixed at 7.085 percent, down from 7.158 percent the day before and 7.210 percent a week earlier. The same index showed 6.293 percent on the 15-year fixed, 6.578 percent on a 30-year FHA loan and 6.640 percent on a 30-year VA loan.

Freddie Mac's survey, the benchmark most lenders and news reports cite, put the 30-year at 7.24 percent for the week ending October 29, as covered in our October 29 mortgage rates article. The two measures use different methods, and daily indexes often run below Freddie Mac's weekly average. The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4 percent on October 28, as covered in our Fed decision article.

Are Florida home insurance rates still coming down?

Two more Florida property insurers filed decreases in late October, according to Insurance Journal on October 28. Mangrove Property Insurance filed an average 5.6 percent statewide decrease on homeowners (HO3) policies on a use-and-file basis, meaning the state Office of Insurance Regulation has not yet reviewed it; state quarterly data show Mangrove had more than 48,000 homeowner policies in March 2026. Security First filed an average 7.3 percent decrease on condo unit (HO6) policies, in effect for more than 20,000 policyholders.

Those cuts add to the filings covered in our Florida home insurance rates article. Insurance is part of the monthly payment, so a lower premium works in the same direction as a lower mortgage rate for a buyer's budget. Our Florida escrow payment guide shows how premiums and taxes flow into the payment.

What posts the rest of this week?

From the publishers' own schedules, all times ET:

• Thursday, November 5, 12:00 p.m.: Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rates. 1:00 p.m.: Redfin weekly housing market tracker.
• Friday, November 6, 8:30 a.m.: BLS Employment Situation for October. The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer survey is also listed for Friday.

Two releases from earlier dates have still not appeared: the University of Florida's Florida consumer sentiment index for October (the bureau's page still shows the September report) and Redfin's third-quarter affordability report (Redfin's news page shows no third-quarter report). Each will get its own article when it posts. The full list is on the release calendar. Local prices and inventory are on the Florida housing tracker and the Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa and Orlando market pages.

People also ask

How many people filed for unemployment in Florida this week?

Florida filed 4,518 initial unemployment claims in the week ending October 31, 2026, down from 5,198 the week before, according to the Department of Labor's advance state figures. The count is not seasonally adjusted.

What were US jobless claims on November 5, 2026?

Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 189,000 for the week ending October 31, down 6,000 from a revised 195,000. Continuing claims were 1,718,000 for the week ending October 24.

How many jobs are expected in the October 2026 jobs report?

FactSet's median estimate is 65,000 jobs with a 4.2 percent unemployment rate. Kiplinger put the expectation at about 59,000 jobs. The report posts Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Are mortgage rates going down this week?

A daily index put the 30-year fixed at 7.085 percent on November 4, down from 7.210 percent a week earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly figure was 7.24 percent for October 29; the new reading posts Thursday at noon ET.

Limitations

Florida claims are the Department of Labor's advance, not seasonally adjusted state count and are often revised the following week. National claims are seasonally adjusted and are not directly comparable with the state figure. Jobs forecasts are estimates gathered by FactSet and Kiplinger and differ from each other; the actual count posts Friday. Productivity figures are preliminary and will be revised. The daily mortgage rate index is the Mortgage Research Center's as reported by Fortune, and it uses a different method from Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Insurance filings are insurers' averages; individual premiums vary by home and county, and Mangrove's filing has not been reviewed by the state.

Sources

U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims," news release for the week ending October 31, 2026, released November 5, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (dol.gov/ui/data.pdf), including advance state claims, not seasonally adjusted.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Productivity and Costs, Third Quarter 2026, Preliminary," USDL 26-1631, November 5, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET.

FactSet Insight, "Total Nonfarm Payrolls for October 2026 Are Projected to Rise By 65,000," November 5, 2026.

David Dittman, Kiplinger, "What to Expect From the October Jobs Report," November 5, 2026.

Fortune, "Mortgage rates Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026," November 5, 2026, citing Mortgage Research Center data available November 4.

Insurance Journal, "More Florida Insurers Announce Rate Cuts for Auto, Homeowners, Condo Units," October 28, 2026.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 29, 2026; Federal Reserve FOMC statement, October 28, 2026; BLS 2026 release schedule; University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Florida consumer sentiment page and Redfin news page, both read November 5, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.