Data Analysis

Redfin reported that 21.1 percent of U.S. home listings carried a price drop in the four weeks ending September 20, 2026, the highest September share in its records, while the share fell from a year earlier in Tampa, Orlando and West Palm Beach.

Miami's 13.7 percent price-drop share was the fifth lowest of the 50 largest U.S. metros. Jacksonville at 23.8 percent and Tampa at 23.4 percent were the only Florida metros above the national rate.

Redfin reported on September 30, 2026 that 21.1 percent of U.S. home listings had a price drop in the four weeks ending September 20, up from 19.8 percent a year earlier and the highest September share in Redfin's records. Three of Florida's six metros in that table moved the other way. Tampa fell 2.0 percentage points to 23.4 percent, Orlando fell 1.2 points to 20.9 percent and West Palm Beach fell 0.7 points to 15.8 percent. Miami came in at 13.7 percent, Fort Lauderdale at 16.4 percent and Jacksonville at 23.8 percent.

Six of the 50 metros in Redfin's table showed a lower price-drop share than a year earlier, by this desk's count of the published column. Half of those six are in Florida. The other three were Chicago at 0.3 points lower, Houston at 0.6 lower and San Francisco at 1.3 lower. Austin and Fort Lauderdale were unchanged. Every one of the remaining 42 metros rose.

Which Florida metros cut prices least in September 2026?

The three in south Florida. Miami at 13.7 percent was the fifth lowest reading of the 50 metros Redfin published, behind only San Francisco at 9.6 percent, Newark at 12.2 percent, Chicago at 13.3 percent and New York at 13.6 percent. West Palm Beach at 15.8 percent was ninth lowest and Fort Lauderdale at 16.4 percent was tenth.

North and central Florida look nothing like that. Jacksonville at 23.8 percent was the twelfth highest share in the country and Tampa at 23.4 percent was fifteenth. Orlando at 20.9 percent sat just under the national rate. So the spread inside Florida runs 10.1 percentage points from Miami to Jacksonville, which is wider than the gap between the national rate and either end of it.

Those rankings are this desk's sort of the 50 rows Redfin published. Redfin itself names no metro ranking in the piece.

What did Redfin say is driving the national record?

A buyer's market and mortgage rates above 7 percent. Redfin wrote that just over one in five sellers is cutting an asking price and that nearly half of buyers are getting concessions from sellers.

Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said that "Those who sell their homes quickly are the ones who are getting savvier about pricing right from day one." Chandra Gordon, a Redfin Premier agent in Seattle, said in the same release that "I understand the reasoning, but overpricing a home is a fast way to deter buyers."

Redfin offered no explanation for why individual metros diverged, and this desk is not going to supply one it cannot source. What the numbers establish is the pattern, not its cause.

Where does Florida sit against the rest of the country?

Below the middle, on four of six metros. The highest price-drop shares in Redfin's September table were Denver at 30.9 percent, Indianapolis at 29.9 percent, San Antonio at 26.8 percent, Dallas at 26.6 percent and Austin at 26.1 percent. Jacksonville and Tampa are the only Florida entries in the top half of that list.

It is worth separating two different things the data says. A high price-drop share, as in Jacksonville and Tampa, means a large share of sellers started above what the market would pay. A share that fell year over year, as in Tampa, Orlando and West Palm Beach, means fewer sellers made that mistake this September than last. Tampa did both at once, which is the combination most likely to be misread: its 23.4 percent is still the fifteenth highest in the country, and it is also down more than any metro in the table.

What does a low price-drop share actually tell a seller?

Less than it appears. The share counts listings that cut an asking price during the four-week window. It does not say what those homes eventually sold for, how long they sat, or whether the asking price was realistic to begin with. A metro where few sellers cut prices can be one where sellers priced accurately, or one where sellers are holding firm and simply not selling.

Redfin's own framing points at the first reading. Khan's comment ties fast sales to pricing correctly on day one rather than correcting later. Nothing in the release tests the second reading, and the release carries no sales-volume or days-on-market figures to check it against. Current closed-sale and days-on-market figures for every Florida market this desk tracks sit on the market data pages.

Limitations

Redfin's price-drop share is drawn from its own analysis of MLS data and covers the four weeks ending September 20, 2026, compared with the same four weeks of prior years. Redfin's records for this measure begin at the start of 2022, so "highest September share" means the highest of five Septembers, not an all-time record. The figures are seasonal, which is why Redfin compares a four-week window to the same window in earlier years rather than to the prior month. The year-over-year point changes are Redfin's; the September 2025 values shown in the chart are those changes subtracted from the published 2026 shares, and they inherit Redfin's rounding, so Fort Lauderdale's "no change" means no change after rounding. The metro rankings and the count of metros that fell are this desk's arithmetic on Redfin's published table and are not Redfin's own statements. Redfin's metro geographies are its own metropolitan divisions and do not match the county boundaries of this publication's market hubs. The release reports no median sale price, sales volume, days on market or inventory figures, so nothing here speaks to those.

Sources

Redfin, "Price-Drop Rate Ticks Up to Record September Rate Amid Strong Buyer's Market," by Dana Anderson, September 30, 2026, redfin.com/news/price-drop-rate-ticks-up/, including the 50-metro table of price-drop shares and year-over-year changes for the four weeks ending September 20, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.