Data Analysis

The PCE price index rose 3.6 percent over the year in September 2026 and 0.5 percent in a single month, while real disposable income fell 0.3 percent, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.

Consumer spending rose 0.5 percent in September as income grew 0.2 percent. Core PCE ran 3.1 percent over the year and the saving rate was 3.8 percent.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.6 percent in September 2026 from a year earlier and 0.5 percent from August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on October 29. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 3.1 percent over the year and 0.3 percent over the month. Personal income increased $54.5 billion, or 0.2 percent. Consumer spending increased $113.1 billion, or 0.5 percent. Real disposable personal income fell 0.3 percent, and the personal saving rate was 3.8 percent.

What was PCE inflation in September 2026?

The headline PCE price index rose 3.6 percent from September 2025. The core index, which leaves out food and energy, rose 3.1 percent. On a monthly basis the headline index rose 0.5 percent and core rose 0.3 percent.

The PCE price index is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2 percent objective. September's annual rate sits well above that objective on both measures. For comparison, BEA's August release, published September 30, put August's annual rates at 3.4 percent headline and 3.0 percent core. Those two figures come from an earlier vintage and are covered in our August PCE article.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index up 3.7 percent over the year in September, as covered in our September CPI article. The two measures use different weights and coverage, so they are not expected to match.

Why did real disposable income fall?

Disposable personal income, which is income after taxes, rose 0.2 percent in current dollars. Prices, measured by the PCE index, rose 0.5 percent. With prices rising faster than income, real disposable income fell 0.3 percent in the month. In August, on the same vintage, it was flat at 0.0 percent.

BEA says the September increase in current-dollar personal income primarily reflected increases in compensation and government social benefits.

How much did consumers spend in September?

Current-dollar consumer spending rose $113.1 billion, or 0.5 percent. Spending on services rose $78.1 billion and spending on goods rose $35.1 billion. After adjusting for prices, real consumer spending rose $2.6 billion, which BEA describes as less than 0.1 percent, and which rounds to 0.0 percent in the table.

So nearly all of September's spending increase was price rather than volume. In August, on the same vintage, current-dollar spending rose 0.9 percent and real spending rose 0.5 percent.

What happened to household saving?

Personal saving was $911.1 billion in September, and the saving rate was 3.8 percent of disposable income. BEA reported that personal outlays rose $113.0 billion while disposable income rose $52.7 billion. Subtracting one from the other, personal saving fell by about $60.3 billion in the month. That subtraction is this desk's arithmetic on two published figures, and BEA did not print it.

BEA's August release put August's saving rate at 4.1 percent. The September release does not print a revised August rate, and it incorporates revised wage data, so this article does not compare the two as a single series.

Were August's figures revised?

Yes, in both directions. Comparing the August column in today's release with BEA's first August figures published September 30: personal income was revised up from 0.2 to 0.3 percent, core PCE prices from 0.2 to 0.3 percent, and real consumer spending down from 0.6 to 0.5 percent. Disposable income, current-dollar spending, the headline PCE price index and real disposable income were unchanged at 0.3, 0.9, 0.3 and 0.0 percent. BEA says July and August were updated to reflect revised BLS Current Employment Statistics data, and that personal interest income was revised on new Bureau of the Fiscal Service data.

What does September's PCE report mean for Florida buyers?

The connection runs through the Federal Reserve. The Fed held its policy range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on October 28, with two members voting for another quarter-point increase, as covered in our Fed decision article. A 0.5 percent monthly price increase and falling real income do not argue for lower borrowing costs. That framing is this desk's, and BEA's release says nothing about housing or rent.

The same morning, BEA's third-quarter GDP advance estimate showed PCE prices rising at a 2.1 percent annual rate for the quarter as a whole. The quarter averages July through September; the September figure shows where the quarter ended.

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.32 percent in the week ending October 22, per our mortgage rate article. Florida price and inventory trends are on the Florida housing tracker, and local detail is on the Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville market pages. All Florida markets are listed at Florida Housing Intelligence.

People also ask

What was PCE inflation in September 2026?

The PCE price index rose 3.6 percent from a year earlier and 0.5 percent from August, BEA reported October 29, 2026. Core PCE rose 3.1 percent over the year and 0.3 percent over the month.

What is the personal saving rate for September 2026?

The personal saving rate was 3.8 percent of disposable personal income in September 2026, with personal saving of $911.1 billion.

Did real income fall in September 2026?

Yes. Real disposable personal income fell 0.3 percent from August because the PCE price index rose 0.5 percent while current-dollar disposable income rose 0.2 percent.

When is the next PCE inflation report?

BEA's Personal Income and Outlays release for October 2026 is scheduled for November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Is PCE inflation the same as CPI?

No. Both measure consumer prices, but they use different weights and coverage. September 2026 CPI rose 3.7 percent over the year and the PCE price index rose 3.6 percent.

Limitations

Monthly figures in this article come from a single table in today's release and are vintage-consistent for August and September. The August annual rates of 3.4 and 3.0 percent and the August saving rate of 4.1 percent come from BEA's September 30 release, which was revised today, so comparisons with them cross vintages.

The $60.3 billion decline in personal saving is the desk's subtraction of BEA's published change in outlays from its published change in disposable income. Outlays include interest and transfer payments as well as consumer spending.

The release page and full release PDF do not explain what drove the September price increase, and BEA's product-level price tables were not read for this article, so no cause is attributed. No long-run history chart is included because FRED could not be retrieved from either of the desk's machines today. This release has no state or metro detail and nothing in it is a Florida measurement. No figure is sourced to a wire service or secondary mirror.

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, BEA 26-46, October 29, 2026: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2026

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, full release PDF: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-10/pi0926.pdf

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026, September 30, 2026: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate), October 29, 2026: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026, via our CPI article.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 22, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.