34638 (Land O' Lakes)
Housing Market
Median sale price $415,995, up 2.5% year over year, with homes going under contract in about 41 days, 90 homes on the market.
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Housing Market Analyst
Inventory sits at 2.1 months of supply — tight by the 3-to-6-month balanced benchmark, and 37% of listed homes are already under contract. Prices are up 2.5% versus the prior year and sellers are still collecting 96.4% of asking. Taken together, the data points to a seller-leaning market.
Who has leverage right now
Leverage scores are derived from the Momentum Score (supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend). Right now the data favors sellers.
- Prices — pressure remains upward while supply stays this thin.
- Inventory — building over the tracked window; watch whether that holds through the season.
- Negotiating power — sellers hold the leverage while 37% of inventory sits under contract.
- Mortgage sensitivity — at 4.9× income, this market is moderately sensitive to rate moves; rate relief tends to show up in demand here quickly.
Derived from current 34638 data, not a prediction or guarantee. Markets move; talk to an agent before acting on any single reading.
Where 34638 is hot — and where it isn't
Each dot is a community (56 shown, sized by sales volume rank). Click any dot to open its full neighborhood guide.
The read on 34638 (Land O' Lakes)
The median sale price across 34638 currently stands at $415,995, up 2.5% from a year ago. Buyers are paying a median of $181 per square foot. The typical home goes under contract in about 41 days. Sellers are capturing 96.4% of their original asking price on average.
There are 90 active listings on the market, with 57 more already under contract. At the current sales pace that works out to 2.1 months of supply — a seller-leaning market by the standard six-month benchmark. 542 homes closed here over the trailing 12 months.
Zillow's home value index for Pasco County stands at $331,852. About 32% of listings county-wide have taken a price cut — a useful gauge of seller flexibility.
Weighing supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend together, the Momentum Score for 34638 is 72 of 100 — healthy market territory. This page recalculates every day as new MLS data lands, so the numbers above reflect the market as of August 6, 2026.
34638 since 2012 — and where it’s heading
A median home here sold for $176,110 in 2012 and $439,173 over the last recorded year — 149% appreciation across 14 years of recorded sales. Cash buyers took 16% of recent sales, down from a 23% peak.
Median sale price · 2012–2026 (7,448 recorded sales)
Days on market by year
Cash buyers · share of sales
Home value trend · Pasco County (Zillow ZHVI)
For-sale inventory · county (Zillow)
Daily active vs pending · Pasco County (MLS)
What’s driving 34638
Top inbound states: NY, NJ, IL, CA. Movers arriving report ~$76,486 average income. Source: IRS SOI county-to-county migration, 2022-2023
8,233 Citizens policies in force in Pasco County — the state-backed insurer of last resort. Budget insurance into any Pasco purchase before you fall in love with a house. Source: Citizens Property Insurance, Detail by County, April 2026
6,191 single-family · 1,687 multi-family · 13.4 per 1,000 residents. Future supply pressure starts here. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2025
The calls we’re making from today’s data
The sharpest 1-yr median swing among tracked communities. Thin samples can exaggerate swings — verify with a comp analysis before treating it as trend.
Sellers: price to the last 60 days of comps, not the peak — well-prepared listings are still commanding strong terms. Buyers: get underwritten now so you can move when the right house hits.
Generated from today’s data by Momentum’s analysis engine and reviewed on a rolling basis by our broker team.
Nearby ZIP codes in Pasco
| Market | Median | Active | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34638 ← this page | $416K | 90 | 72 | |
| 33543 | $415K | 182 | 52 | Open → |
| 34652 | $239K | 177 | 47 | Open → |
| 34667 | $250K | 165 | 43 | Open → |
| 33541 | $400K | 153 | 45 | Open → |
| 33545 | $439K | 98 | 48 | Open → |
Neighborhoods on the move
| ANGELINE PH 1A 1B 1C & 1DLand O' Lakes | $360K | ▲ 41% |
| ANGELINELand O' Lakes | $395K | ▲ 12% |
| BEXLEYLand O' Lakes | $600K | ▲ 10% |
| STONEGATE PH 01Land O' Lakes | $659K | ▲ 10% |
| CYPRESS PRESERVELand O' Lakes | $370K | ▲ 7% |
| SUNCOAST LAKES PH 01Land O' Lakes | $385K | ▼ 21% |
| ASBEL ESTATESLand O' Lakes | $340K | ▼ 19% |
| CONCORD STATION PH 01 UNITS C D E & FLand O' Lakes | $392K | ▼ 11% |
| SUNCOAST MEADOWS INCREMENT 01Land O' Lakes | $386K | ▼ 8% |
| PRISTINE LAKE PRESERVELand O' Lakes | $812K | ▼ 7% |
| ANGELINELand O' Lakes | $395K | 39 |
| DEERBROOKLand O' Lakes | $416K | 20 |
| CONNERTONLand O' Lakes | $464K | 16 |
| ASBEL CRK PH 2Land O' Lakes | $358K | 7 |
| DEVONWOOD RESIDENTIALLand O' Lakes | $390K | 3 |
| SUNCOAST MEADOWS INCREMENT 02Land O' Lakes | $385K | 14 days |
| CONNERTONLand O' Lakes | $464K | 18 days |
| STONEGATE PH 01Land O' Lakes | $659K | 21 days |
| CONCORD STATION PH 01 UNITS C D E & FLand O' Lakes | $392K | 23 days |
| CONNERTON VILLAGE 3 PH 1Land O' Lakes | $412K | 24 days |
Cities in this ZIP
Most active communities
Put this data to work
The questions people actually ask
Should I buy a house in 34638 right now?
The data says conditions currently favor sellers in 34638 — the Momentum Score reads 72/100 with 2.1 months of supply. Buyers should come fully underwritten; sellers still set the pace here. The right timing always depends on your rate, your equity, and how long you plan to stay — not just the market.
Is 34638 becoming more affordable?
No — the median sale price in 34638 is $415,995, up 2.5% versus the prior year, while sellers still capture 96.4% of asking price. Rising prices mean waiting has a cost; affordability hinges mostly on your rate.
Where are prices falling fastest in 34638?
Among tracked communities with enough sales to measure, the sharpest 1-year median declines are SUNCOAST LAKES PH 01 (-21%); ASBEL ESTATES (-19%); CONCORD STATION PH 01 UNITS C D E & F (-11%). Note that community-level medians move on small sale counts — a few high- or low-end closings can swing them — so treat these as leads for a comp analysis, not verdicts.
Which 34638 neighborhoods are most competitive?
Measured by speed of sale, the fastest-moving tracked communities right now are SUNCOAST MEADOWS INCREMENT 02 (14 days); CONNERTON (18 days); STONEGATE PH 01 (21 days) — homes there go under contract well ahead of the market-wide pace of 41 days.
34638 (Land O' Lakes) housing market FAQ
What is the median home price in 34638?
The median sale price in 34638 is currently $415,995, up 2.5% from a year ago, based on MLS sales data updated August 6, 2026.
Is 34638 a buyer's or seller's market right now?
The data currently favors sellers. 34638 scores 72 of 100 on the Momentum Score, with 2.1 months of housing supply. Conditions change; this page updates daily.
How long do homes take to sell in 34638?
The typical home in 34638 goes under contract in about 41 days, per current MLS data.
How many homes are for sale in 34638?
There are approximately 90 active listings in 34638 as of August 6, 2026.
Are home prices in 34638 rising or falling?
Median sale prices are up 2.5% year over year based on a rolling comparison of MLS sales.
Momentum agents use this intelligence every day to price listings and write winning offers across 34638 (Land O' Lakes). Talk through what the numbers mean for your move.
Every number on this page is computed directly from licensed Florida MLS feeds, recorded public sales, Zillow Research, and U.S. Census data — nothing is manually adjusted or estimated by hand. Medians use recorded closed sales; supply figures use live listing counts refreshed twice daily; the Momentum Score methodology is summarized .
Analyst oversight: Jon Brooks — Co-Founder, Momentum Realty · CEO, Momentum Research · Housing Market Analyst · methodology reviewed quarterly · Last data refresh: August 6, 2026 at 7:18 PM ET
Statistics on this page are computed automatically from licensed MLS feeds and public data sources (Zillow Research, U.S. Census Bureau) and summarized without manual review. Figures are estimates based on recent recorded activity, are deemed reliable but not guaranteed, and should be verified with a licensed agent before making decisions. This page does not constitute an appraisal or an automated valuation of any specific property. Momentum Realty is licensed in Florida and Georgia. Equal Housing Opportunity.