A gated new-construction single-family community in Mandarin, off Julington Creek Road near the St Johns River.
Listings before the portals, true comps, and the renovation and carrying-cost math, before you tour.
"Blair Estates is a gated, new-construction single-family community in Jacksonville's Mandarin area, built by Drees Homes off Julington Creek Road. The read is newer-gated-Mandarin: a small gated enclave of one- and two-story homes in an established, sought-after Southside location near Julington Creek and the St Johns River, at a price above the older Mandarin stock for the gate and the new build. You confirm the HOA dues, the lot, and the builder warranty."
Jon Brooks, founder, Momentum Realty · Updated June 2026
Blair Estates market snapshot (as of June 25, 2026): the median sale price is about $610K ($227 per sq ft), a buyer-leaning market (limited data). Based on 2 recent closings in live realMLS data.
Blair Estates is a gated, new-construction single-family community in the Mandarin area of Jacksonville, Duval County, in the 32223 ZIP code, off Julington Creek Road, built by Drees Homes (Drees Homes, 2026; Watson Realty, 2026). It is a smaller gated enclave within established Mandarin.
Homes are one- and two-story new construction across a range of plans, with listings reported into the high $500,000s and beyond depending on plan and lot (homesinjacksonvillefl.com, 2026). Because it is new construction, buyers get current building standards and builder warranty.
The Mandarin setting is the draw: an established, oak-shaded part of Jacksonville's Southside near Julington Creek and the St Johns River, with the Mandarin Park marina nearby and quick access to Interstate 95 and Interstate 295 (Drees Homes, 2026). Blair Estates adds a gated, new-build option within that fabric.
Pricing reflects the gate and the new construction, so the math is the HOA dues plus the build premium. Confirm the dues, the lot, and the warranty, and compare against both other Mandarin homes and the builder's remaining inventory.
Real aerial and on-site photos of Blair Estates. Swipe to explore the community and its amenities.
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Blair Estates
Blair Estates
Blair EstatesTight supply and strong demand favor sellers here. Homes still take about two months to sell, though, and with asking prices running above recent sales per square foot, a prepared buyer has room on anything overpriced. Reading each home against the real comps, not the headline trend, is where the edge is.
Live from realMLS, as of June 25, 2026. Refreshed twice daily. Months of supply, days on market, and the contract-to-listing ratio are computed from current Blair Estates listings and the trailing twelve months of closed sales.
Our proprietary read on how a home in Blair Estates buys, holds, and resells. See the five factors.
Live MLS inventory for Blair Estates. Every active listing, what is under contract right now, and the last 12 months of closed sales, refreshed twice a day. Closed comps beat an algorithm's guess every time.
No homes are actively for sale in Blair Estates right now, so its recent closed sales are shown, as of 2026-06-25, priced high to low. Source: Data provided by realMLS.. Tap any home to ask about it.
Every active, pending, and recently sold home, plotted. Toggle the layers, color the dots by status or lot type, and tap a home for the details.
Listing locations from realMLS; lot type inferred from listing descriptions. Destination pins are approximate. Map data © OpenStreetMap, tiles © CARTO. Flood, school, and commute overlays are on the roadmap.
The location is the everyday-convenience case: shopping, schools, and the major roads are all a manageable drive.
Drive times from Blair Estates. They are approximate and vary with traffic and your exact start point.
St Johns Town CenterDistances and drive times are approximate and vary with traffic. Confirm your real commute at your real departure time.
Explore more neighborhoods near Blair Estates Homes for Sale in Jacksonville, FL with Momentum Realty’s local guides.
Carrying cost · the no-CDD edge
No CDD bond means thousands less per year than newer master plans.
Roughly $25,000 saved over 10 years in carrying cost, before resale.
Illustrative. NE Florida CDD assessments commonly run $1,500-$3,500+/yr and vary by community; verify per property.
Blair Estates is served by Duval County Public Schools. Assignment is by address and can change, so confirm the exact zoned elementary, middle, and high schools for any specific home, plus any magnet or choice options. Treat published ratings as a starting point, not the full story.
Buying with schools in mind? We can confirm the exact zoned schools for any Blair Estates address.
What actually bears on this purchase, sourced and dated. We do not publish a figure we have not verified.
Our read on what is being built around Blair Estates, scored for direction, significance, and how close the effect lands. The full sourced timeline follows below.
Gated new construction by Drees Homes
Duval County millage and homestead
Direction, significance, and effect-radius ratings are Momentum's proprietary, qualitative read of the sourced items below, not investment advice or a prediction for any specific home.
Development, infrastructure, retail, and school activity affecting Blair Estates, tracked by our team and summarized from public reporting and official sources, with links to the original coverage. Last updated June 2026.
Showing the latest, scroll for all updates ↓
The 2024 millage set by Duval County determines the county portion of the property-tax bill for Jacksonville parcels (Duval County Property Appraiser, 2024). Why it matters: Pull the actual tax line and homestead status for the specific home from the Duval County Property Appraiser, plus the FEMA flood zone and a bindable insurance quote, rather than the seller's estimate. Source
Blair Estates is a gated, new-construction single-family community by Drees Homes off Julington Creek Road in Mandarin, with one- and two-story homes near the St Johns River (Drees Homes, 2026). Why it matters: In a new-construction enclave, confirm the plan, lot, build year, and remaining builder warranty on the specific home. Source
Summaries reflect public reporting and official sources linked above as of the dates shown. Project details, timelines, and approvals can change. Commentary on potential market effects is general observation, not investment advice or a prediction for any specific property. For the freshest items across the whole region, see This Week in Northeast Florida.
If we were buying in Blair Estates, this is the order of operations we would run, and the one we run for our clients.
Confirm the HOA dues and inclusions. Verify the current gated-community dues and what they cover for the specific home.
Check the warranty and build-out. Confirm the builder warranty, the plan, and how many homes remain to be sold.
Assess the lot. Confirm the lot size, orientation, and any pond, preserve, or creek-area position.
Pull the flood zone and an insurance quote. Mandarin parcels near the creek can sit in flood zones; get the zone and a bindable quote during diligence.
Comp within gated Mandarin. Compare against other gated Mandarin homes and the builder's remaining inventory, not the older Mandarin stock.
On mobile, tap any heading below to open it. This is the home by home, lot by lot, club and renovation detail, organized so you can jump straight to what matters to you.
Blair Estates is a gated, new-construction single-family community in the Mandarin area of Jacksonville, Duval County (32223), off Julington Creek Road, built by Drees Homes with one- and two-story homes (Drees Homes, 2026; Watson Realty, 2026). It is a smaller gated enclave in established Mandarin near Julington Creek, the St Johns River, and the Mandarin Park marina, with quick access to Interstate 95 and Interstate 295.
Three honest price bands. Condition and lot, not the square footage alone, decide where a home lands.
Here are the broad resale bands in Blair Estates today. The right home is the one matched to your budget and the renovation math, so seeing fitting listings early is the edge.
A smaller new-construction plan or an interior lot, new or resale. Confirm the HOA dues and warranty and compare against builder inventory before you write.
A larger plan or a preserve or pond lot, which is what most buyers here want. The gate, new build, and Mandarin location are the story; verify the exact monthly cost.
The largest plans on the best preserve or creek-area lots, fully optioned. The premium reflects plan and lot; confirm it against the closest gated Mandarin comp.
Approximate 2026 resale bands from third-party listing data and public records, not NEFAR statistics. Confirm pricing for a specific home.
Three realistic price bands. Where a home lands comes down to condition and lot, not square footage alone.
Approximate 2026 resale bands from third-party listing data and public records, not NEFAR statistics. Confirm pricing for a specific home.
The factors that actually move value in Blair Estates, condition, lot, and the renovation math, read from current listings and recent sales.
Renovated-listing inventory in Blair Estates is too thin right now to compute a reliable renovation premium. We read condition home by home against real comps before you offer.
On a preferred homesite (water, preserve, corner, or a larger lot), the homesite is the part of your money the market gives back at resale. The house can be renovated; the lot cannot, so premium lots hold their value better than interior ones. How much more they command varies by frontage, view, and condition, which is why we read it home by home against real comparable sales rather than a single headline figure.
Most buyers overpay on interior lots in the back half of the community. A sharp renovation can distract you, but the weaker resale position follows the lot, not the finishes. We read the homesite before the kitchen.
Our read on the factors that protect resale here, and the one to manage.
Momentum analysis based on the community's structure, location, lot scarcity, and housing stock. Not a guarantee of future value.
The strongest value pocket is usually a renovated home on a good lot priced just under the next tier up. Buyers chasing the single biggest house often pay top prices for what is really a renovation project.
The same five mistakes cost buyers the most in any market. Every one is avoidable with the right preparation before you tour.
1The agent on the sign works for the seller. In a market where condition swings price by hundreds of thousands, negotiating against that agent with no one in your corner is the costliest move of all.
2A dated home looks like a deal until you price the roof, HVAC, pool, and full modernization honestly. Underbudget the reno and the bargain becomes the expensive house.
3A premium homesite (water, preserve, or a preferred position) carries a real, durable premium. Pay a top price for an interior lot and you are buying the weakest version of the value.
4Two similar homes can cost very differently to own once the HOA, any CDD, insurance, and upkeep are priced in. Buyers who do not run the full monthly carrying cost misread the real number.
5An older home means older systems unless updated. Roof age, HVAC age, pool equipment, and prior renovations drive both price and insurability, and a thorough inspection matters more here than in a new build.
Blair Estates sells a gated, new-construction home in established Mandarin near the river. The deal is not in the brochure; it is in the HOA math, the lot, the warranty, and a gated Mandarin comp set.
Our proprietary 0 to 10 read across the five factors that decide how a home here buys, holds, and resells.
Momentum Intelligence Scores are our proprietary, qualitative assessment based on the analysis on this page, on a 0 to 10 scale. They are a framework for comparing communities, not a guarantee of future value or advice on a specific home.
Most pages on this community are an automated estimate wrapped in stock copy. This one is built from the live realMLS feed, fourteen years of closed sales, and a renovation-by-renovation read of what actually moves value here, lot by lot. No Zestimate, no guesswork.
Where the value actually sits. Each home is shaded by its price per square foot (a value read, not just a price) and ringed by lot type, so you can see at a glance which pockets carry a real, durable premium and where a renovation play makes sense.
Fill = price per square foot; ring = lot type, inferred from listing descriptions. Sold homes are shown by realized $/sqft (lot type not always recorded). Asking and recent-sold figures from realMLS; for orientation, not an appraisal.
Blair Estates is a gated new-construction community, so lot value is driven by the lot's position, a preserve, pond, or creek-area lot over an interior one, and the plan and options. New construction lowers renovation risk, so the honest approach is to price a home on its plan, lot, and upgrades, confirm the gated dues and warranty, and compare it against other gated Mandarin homes and the builder's remaining inventory rather than the older Mandarin stock.
Blair Estates is a gated community with a homeowners association; confirm the current dues, what they cover, including the gate and common areas, and the reserve posture directly with the association.
The HOA generally funds the gate and the common areas; with single-family homes, the owner is responsible for the house and lot. Confirm the exact inclusions for the specific home.
Blair Estates is a gated, new-construction single-family enclave rather than a golf or large-amenity community; confirm any shared facilities with the association.
Free calculators to pressure-test the real cost before you tour.
Selling here is won on condition and view, not the Zestimate. The right number comes from closed comps matched to your renovation level and lot.
Your buyer is cross-shopping gated Mandarin and new construction, so sell what is specific: your plan and lot, the gated dues, your upgrades, the warranty status, and the Mandarin location near the river.
Sold-to-list and days-on-market figures reflect Momentum Realty listings versus the Jacksonville metro average, year to date. Your home's result depends on pricing, condition, lot, view, and preparation.
Because buyers here are weighing your home against renovated comps and cross-shopping Mandarin, a home priced to the community average instead of its true condition and view either leaves money on the table or sits. A renovated kitchen, newer roof and HVAC, and a golf or lake view all deserve to show up in your price, and a buyer pool reading renovation math needs to be shown why your home is worth it. We build that case with real comps and a pricing strategy for the current market.
Get a no-obligation home value based on real comparable sales in Blair Estates matched to your condition, lot, and view, not an automated guess. Tell us about your home and we will personally prepare your numbers and a pricing strategy. No obligation, no spam.
See homes for sale in Blair Estates on the map →
Median sale prices in Blair Estates year by year since 2012, from closed MLS sales. A long track record beats a single estimate, showing what this community has really done through rate cycles rather than what a model predicts.
Before the list price, the Florida math the portals skip. These are Duval County typicals — your exact home, flood zone, and insurance quote will vary, so verify each before you offer.
Check it for your address: look up your flood zone (FEMA) · insurance by county · true-cost calculator · Duval County scorecard.
County typicals from Momentum’s Florida housing data (Zillow & Realtor.com aggregates, Census, FRED), updated monthly; insurance modeled. Flood zone is property-specific — always confirm via FEMA.
Blair Estates is currently a no active listings. Limited supply, a median asking price of n/a.
Typical home value in the 32223 ZIP is $431,973, about 5.0% below the Florida norm (Zillow Home Value Index).
Go deeper: ZIP market scorecard · county scorecard · true cost calculator · affordability calculator.
Live data: realMLS, refreshed twice daily. Typical value: Zillow Research. Market metrics only; these describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
An honest fit check. We will tell you when it is not your community.
Whether you are buying a renovation project, comparing the lots and views, weighing the carrying costs, or selling your Blair Estates home, tell us what you need. Every inquiry comes straight to us. We represent you, not the seller, and what your agent is paid is negotiable and set in a written buyer agreement up front. No obligation, no spam, no high-pressure follow-up.
A Momentum Realty Blair Estates specialist will reach out personally, usually the same day.
Zoom out before you decide: see the Duval County market guide or every community in the Neighborhood Finder.
Get a real cash offer on your Blair Estates home in 24 hours and close in as little as 7 days, as-is. Because Momentum is a licensed RealTrends-500 brokerage, we'll also show you what listing would net - so you choose with both numbers.
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Buying or researching Duval County? See the full Duval County real estate market report - prices, inventory, schools, taxes, and every Duval County neighborhood.
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The numbers on this page move markets in the aggregate. The number that matters to you is what a buyer pays for your address. Momentum sells for 1.25% above the RealMLS member average and 8 days faster, and we’ll price yours against live your area comps.
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