Pablo Bay
Homes for Sale in Jacksonville, FL
True comps, carrying-cost math, and listings before the portals.
Market Heat
Homes For Sale Right Now in Pablo Bay
Live MLS inventory for Pablo Bay. Every active listing, what is under contract right now, and the last 12 months of closed sales, refreshed twice a day. Closed comps beat an algorithm's guess every time.
Active · 24 daysTop listing
Active · 3 days
Active · 203 days
Active · 31 days
Pending · 10 days
Pending · 58 days
Pending · 44 daysActive and pending Pablo Bay listings as of 2026-10-18, priced high to low. Source: Data provided by realMLS. Tap any home to ask about it.
Pablo Bay's price story comes down to size and age: a median living area of 3,052 square feet and a median build year of 2004 put most homes here in the larger, newer-construction tier for the area, and that's what the $700,000 median reflects. At $262.90 per square foot, the per-foot number is doing a lot of the explaining once you account for lot size and finish level, rather than any single hot pocket of the community.
With only 4 active listings against 848 homes total, and 1.3 months of supply, this reads as a seller-leaning market right now, though the 32-day median days-on-market and a 0.6% year-over-year dip say buyers still have room to negotiate on condition and price rather than getting into bidding wars on every listing. Since 2012, prices here have roughly doubled, so this is a community with a long runway of appreciation already priced in, not a fresh discovery.
Figures in this note are as of July 14, 2026. The live market numbers elsewhere on this page update nightly and are newer.
Pablo Bay right now
🟡 Balanced market. 4.0 months of supply and 43% of the inventory already under contract put buyers and sellers on roughly even footing.Why it matters: months of supply is how long today's inventory would last at today's sales pace; under-contract share is the portion of homes for sale that already have a buyer.Momentum Research analysis of realMLS records, as of October 18, 2026. Confidence: Very High (7 active and pending listings, 35 closed sales in 12 months).
🟡 Still climbing. The trailing-12-month median ($732K) is up 4.0% from the prior 12 months ($704K) and up 101% since 2012.Momentum Research, record-level realMLS closed sales, 12-month windows ending October 18. Confidence: High (35 and 26 sales in the two windows).
What's unique here: the median sale price is about 2x the typical Duval County sale ($732K vs $310K, trailing 12 months, realMLS records).
Jump to: Price history & scorecard · Homes for sale · Schools · FAQ
· Updated October 18, 2026 · Live data: realMLS, refreshed twice daily · MLS facts carry their source; interpretation lines are Momentum Research · Data sources & freshness
The 60-Second Overview
Pablo Bay market snapshot (as of October 18, 2026): the median sale price is about $732K ($265 per sq ft over the trailing 12 months of closed sales), a median 26 days on market for closed sales, and 4.0 months of supply, a balanced market. The trailing-12-month median is up 4% from the prior 12 months and up 101% since 2012, computed from record-level realMLS closed sales (35 closings in the current window).
Pablo Bay is a community of 328 homes in Jacksonville, Duval County, built between 2001 and 2016 (median 2014.0), with a median living area of about 3,096 square feet. 90% of parcels are homesteaded, the owner-occupancy proxy in the Florida DOR assessment roll (2025 roll, public records).
Pablo Bay is an established Jacksonville community in Duval County with 848 homes spanning a wide range of build years (1948-2022), giving it a mix of older and newer construction under one HOA rather than a single-phase, same-era build-out.
The setting & the homes.
Aerial and on-site photos of Pablo Bay. Swipe to explore the community.
Swipe or use the arrows → tap any photo to enlarge
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Pablo BayPhotos from realMLS listings in Pablo Bay; content deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Who Pablo Bay is best for.
Best for
- Buyers targeting a larger home (median 3,052 sq ft) and comfortable near the $700,000 median price point
- Buyers who want an amenity-rich HOA - pool, clubhouse, fitness center, courts, dog park - as part of the purchase
- Sellers with an updated, well-maintained home who can price against a tight 4-listing active market
Probably not for
- Buyers who need to close fast and can't wait out a market with only 1.3 months of supply
- Buyers set on new construction - the community spans build years back to 1948, with a median build year of 2004
- Buyers or sellers who want a quick generic online price number instead of a hand-prepared, comparable-driven price opinion
Price History: What Homes Here Have Actually Sold For
Median sale price over the trailing 12 months ending October 18 of each year, from record-level realMLS closed sales. Same methodology as every appreciation figure on this page: the 2026 point ($732K) IS the median in the snapshot above, and the move from 2025 ($704K) IS the +4.0% one-year change.
Windows contain 23 to 146 sales each (35 in the current window); every figure carries its sample size. Source: Data provided by realMLS. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
40% of homes for sale in ZIP 32224 are already under contract (under contract ÷ under contract + active listings) — a read on how much of the available inventory buyers have already claimed. Source: MLS data (2026-10-18).
Pablo Bay Market Scorecard
Pablo Bay is currently a balanced market. About 4.0 months of supply, a median asking price of $784,450, and homes go under contract in about 31 days.
Go deeper: ZIP market scorecard · county scorecard · true cost calculator · affordability calculator.
Live data: realMLS, refreshed twice daily. Market metrics only; these describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
Housing distress & ownership in Pablo Bay, Jacksonville
Who owns here, how much is not owner-occupied, and how much for-sale inventory is under distress.
Source: Momentum Realty Research. Ownership & parcels from the FL DOR 2025 tax roll; distress from MLS active-listing status/remarks; price from MLS closed sales. Source: Data provided by realMLS. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Pablo Bay on the map.
Every active, pending, and recently sold home, plotted. Toggle the layers and tap a home for the details.
Listing locations from realMLS. Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors.
Life at Pablo Bay
- Pool · reported on 15 of 16 listings
- Playground · reported on 14 of 16 listings
- Children's Pool · reported on 13 of 16 listings
- Tennis Court(s) · reported on 10 of 16 listings
- Park · reported on 9 of 16 listings
- Clubhouse · reported on 8 of 16 listings
- Dog Park · reported on 8 of 16 listings
- Jogging Path · reported on 6 of 16 listings
- Basketball Court · reported on 6 of 16 listings
- Pickleball · reported on 5 of 16 listings
- Management - Off Site · reported on 2 of 16 listings
- Barbecue · reported on 1 of 16 listings
Community amenities as reported across realMLS listings in this community; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Verify current amenities and access with the HOA.
How far is everything?
Everyday stops around Pablo Bay are close: the nearest parks is about 1 minutes away.
- Castaway Island Preserve · Parks1 min
- Eva's Jamaican Kitchen · Dining2 min
- Starbucks · Coffee2 min
- La Fiesta Latin Market · Groceries3 min
- Hodges Plaza · Shopping4 min
- Pablo Oaks Building · Health6 min
Approximate drive times via Mapbox Search + Directions, 2026-07-03. Verify for a specific address.
Schools
- Duval County Public Schools
- Verify the zoned schools by address
- Magnet and choice options may be available
- Alimacani Elementary (Duval)FLDOE grade A · Public K-5
- Duncan U. Fletcher Middle (Duval)FLDOE grade A · Public 6-8
- Sandalwood High School (Duval)FLDOE grade A · Public 9-12
Grades are official Florida Department of Education school grades for 2025-26. Assignments are reported as of the 2025-26 year and can change; always confirm with Duval County Public Schools for a specific address.
Buying with schools in mind? We can confirm the exact zoned schools for any Pablo Bay address.
Recent Developments in Pablo Bay
Development, infrastructure, retail, and school activity affecting Pablo Bay, tracked by our team and summarized from public reporting and official sources, with links to the original coverage. Last updated October 2026.
- October 2026Market
St. Johns County denies 4,462-acre Palm Valley farmland housing application under new state enclave law
Commissioners denied 3-2 on Sept. 15 the 4,462-acre Palm Valley application near Nocatee under the state agricultural enclave law, and the county plans to fight it in court. Another proposal of nearly 1,200 acres and about 15,000 homes south of St. Augustine was approved in August, then denied 3-2 on Sept. 28. St. Johns County has received 16 applications under the law.
What it may mean for the marketThe outcome of these applications will shape how much new housing supply can be added on rural land in the county. The site is about 8 miles south of Pablo Bay.
Source: Jacksonville Today - October 2026Schools
Loretto Elementary breaks ground on $12.3 million classroom addition
The addition will replace 13 portable classrooms and two aging pod buildings with 15 classrooms, a music room and a teacher planning room, and will expand the parent drop-off loop. The school enrolls 875 students for 2026-27. Funding comes from the voter-approved half-cent sales tax, with opening expected in 2028.
What it may mean for the marketExpanded permanent capacity and a longer drop-off loop affect school-area traffic and classroom availability in the Mandarin area. The project is about 12 miles west of Pablo Bay, elsewhere in Duval County.
Source: Hoodline - September 2026Infrastructure
JEA advances about $690 million in infrastructure projects including Fulton Cut transmission line raise near JAXPORT
JEA is moving forward with three water reclamation projects (Blacks Ford in northwest St. Johns County, over $220 million; near Jacksonville International Airport, about $193 million; East Arlington, just under $165 million) and the $117 million Fulton Cut transmission line clearance over the St. Johns River near Blount Island. Fulton Cut, shared with JAXPORT and the city, is expected to finish in summer 2027 and all four projects by 2030.
What it may mean for the marketRaised power lines support larger ship access to port terminals, and new reclamation capacity supports growth in surrounding areas. The site is about 9 miles northwest of Pablo Bay.
Source: News4JAX - July 2026Development
Culinary Institute of America selects Jacksonville for Southeast campus
News4Jax reported that the Culinary Institute of America chose downtown Jacksonville for its Southeast hub, to be located at 330 E. Bay Street on the Northbank riverfront. The campus would anchor a $160.5 million hotel and convention center development. The city previously approved up to $35 million in incentives, and the Downtown Investment Authority is finalizing agreements on design and property details.
What it may mean for the marketAnchors a major downtown riverfront redevelopment that pairs an educational campus with hotel and convention space, adding institutional and commercial investment to the urban core alongside Riverfront Plaza and Pearl Square. The project is about 13 miles west of Pablo Bay, elsewhere in Duval County.
Source: News4Jax - April 2026Development
Southeast Toyota opens $170M vehicle-processing facility at JAXPORT's Blount Island, adding 400-plus jobs
Southeast Toyota Distributors dedicated a new vehicle processing facility at JAXPORT's Blount Island Marine Terminal in April 2026. The company put the investment at $170 million and said the facility created more than 400 full-time jobs, most of them hired locally.
What it may mean for the marketA large new employment center on Blount Island adds sustained local job demand, a factor that has historically supported nearby housing absorption. The site is about 9 miles northwest of Pablo Bay.
Source: JAXPORT - February 2026Infrastructure
JAXPORT details $250M Blount Island modernization and record cargo in 2026 State of the Ports
At its February 2026 State of the Ports address, JAXPORT outlined a $250 million modernization of Blount Island's container and vehicle-handling capabilities and reported record fiscal-2025 cargo volumes. The port also said an air-draft expansion to accommodate larger ships is on track to finish by the end of 2026.
What it may mean for the marketContinued heavy investment in the Blount Island port complex anchors long-term industrial employment on the northeast side, a structural demand driver for the surrounding area. The site is about 9 miles northwest of Pablo Bay.
Source: News4Jax
Summaries reflect public reporting and official sources linked above as of the dates shown. Project details, timelines, and approvals can change. Commentary on potential market effects is general observation, not investment advice or a prediction for any specific property. For the freshest items across the whole region, see This Week in Northeast Florida.
The Pablo Bay buying strategy.
If we were buying in Pablo Bay today, this is the order of operations we would run for our clients.
Underwrite the condition first. Price the roof, HVAC, and systems honestly before judging any list price; condition swings value here more than square footage alone.
Match the home to real comps. Recent sales of similar condition and lot, not the asking price, tell you what a home is worth.
Move deliberately, not desperately. Neither side has a decisive edge, so a well-prepared, fairly-priced offer wins without overpaying.
Line up financing and inspection early. A pre-approval and an inspection plan let you act fast and negotiate from evidence.
Keep an agent in your corner. The listing agent works for the seller; we represent you and prepare a hand-built valuation before any offer in Pablo Bay.
What the numbers actually say
Inventory is thin: just 4 active listings across a community of 848 homes, and 1.3 months of supply means the current for-sale pool would clear quickly at the recent pace of sales. That combination is why we call this market seller-leaning even with prices down slightly (-0.6%) year over year - low supply, not runaway demand, is setting the tone.
The median days-on-market of 32 tells you homes here aren't sitting, but they aren't going in a weekend either - there's time for a real inspection period and a considered offer. About 87% of homes carry a homestead exemption, pointing to a market dominated by owner-occupied homes rather than a heavy investor or short-term-rental presence, which tends to support steadier turnover and maintenance standards over time.
The location and the amenities are priced into every listing in Pablo Bay. The deal is won or lost on condition, the comps, and the renovation math.
Momentum Buy Score.
Our proprietary 0 to 10 read across the factors that decide how a home in Pablo Bay buys, holds, and resells. Momentum Research; not an appraisal.
Momentum Intelligence Scores are our proprietary, qualitative assessment on a 0 to 10 scale, built from the record-level market data on this page. They are a framework for comparing communities, not a guarantee of future value and not advice on a specific home; unlike an automated value estimate they do not price your home, they grade the community on evidence you can inspect. Composite is the plain average of the 5 factors (7.3). Basis: Long-Term Appreciation +101% since 2012; Recent Direction +4.0% year-over-year; Liquidity & Demand 4.0 months of supply; Owner Commitment 90% owner-occupied; Pricing Power 96.0% sale-to-list. Refreshed with each data update.
Why work with Momentum here
In a community with only 4 active listings, most of the useful information - what recently closed, how the 37 recent closings priced relative to list, where the next listing is likely to land on price per square foot - isn't sitting on the public portals. We track this feed directly and can walk you through what the $700,000 median and $262.90 per-square-foot figure actually mean for a specific floor plan or lot before you write an offer, backed by a hand-prepared comparable analysis rather than a generic number.
Pablo Bay in 15 seconds.
HOA, CDD & Fees
- Has a CDD assessment
- HOA reported ~$1600/year
Confirm the current HOA dues, exactly what they cover, and any CDD bond or special assessment for a specific address before you offer.
Flood & Insurance Context
Of 15 sampled listing addresses in this community: 100% outside the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area (Zone X/B/C).
Address-sampled; individual parcels vary - verify any specific address at msc.fema.gov. Check any address at FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and see average home-insurance costs by Florida county.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer, address-level lookups (n=15) · as of 2026-10
Tools for a Pablo Bay buy.
Free calculators to pressure-test the real cost before you tour.
Selling here is won on condition and pricing to real comps, not an automated estimate. The right number comes from closed Pablo Bay sales matched to your home.
Price it to the comps and condition, not an automated estimate.
If you are thinking about selling in Pablo Bay, the right list price comes from recent comparable sales matched to your home's condition and location, not an automated estimate.
What is your Pablo Bay home worth?
Get a no-obligation home value based on real comparable sales in Pablo Bay, not an automated guess. Tell us about your home and we will personally prepare your numbers and a pricing strategy. No obligation, no spam.
See homes for sale in Pablo Bay on the map →
Ask an agent about Pablo Bay
Have a question about the homes, fees, rules or commute here? A Momentum agent who works Pablo Bay will answer, and the answer is published on this page for the next buyer.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in Pablo Bay?
How long do homes in Pablo Bay take to sell?
Is Pablo Bay a buyer's or seller's market right now?
How many homes are in Pablo Bay?
What share of Pablo Bay is owner-occupied?
When were the homes in Pablo Bay built?
Have Pablo Bay home prices gone up?
What schools serve Pablo Bay?
Who is the best real estate agent for Pablo Bay?
How do I find a top Jacksonville real estate agent who knows Pablo Bay?
Can Momentum Realty connect me with an agent for Pablo Bay?
Should you buy in Pablo Bay?
An honest fit check. We will tell you when it is not your community.
Nearby Communities
Explore more neighborhoods near Pablo Bay with Momentum Realty’s local guides.
Data sources & freshness
| Live listings | realMLS, refreshed twice daily (last: October 18, 2026) |
| Community market stats | realMLS closed sales, 12-month windows ending October 18, 2026 |
| Housing stock & ownership | Florida DOR assessment roll (street-list match (5 streets, ZIP 32081/32224/32244/32257/32259)) |
| Under-contract shares | realMLS records, as of 2026-10-18 |
| Schools | 2025-26 district assignments + FLDOE school grades; verify with the district |
| Historical depth | Closed-sale records back to 2001 (1,116 transactions analyzed) |
Verify the primary sources yourself: Florida DOR · U.S. Census · FEMA flood maps · Citizens Property Insurance.
Momentum Research figures are our own analysis of realMLS records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Methodology: how Momentum market scores are computed. Market metrics describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
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