Deer Run
Homes for Sale in Orange Park, FL
All 329 homes for sale in Orange Park, FL · median $329,900 · Clay County homes for sale
True comps, carrying-cost math, and listings before the portals.
Photo via realMLS
As of November 2026, the MLS records 15 closed sales in Deer Run in Orange Park, FL since 2011, the most recent in March 2026. Across Orange Park as a whole, 932 homes closed in the last 12 months at a median of $320,000, 40 median days on market, with 301 homes for sale today. At that median and Clay County's FY2025-26 rate of 15.05 mills, annual property tax runs about $4,820 ($4,220 with the full homestead exemption).
Deer Run sits in Orange Park, in Clay County, and with a closings window this narrow the pricing signal is thin. What that means in practice: recent sales tell you more about the specific homes that traded than about a firm market rate. Condition, updates, and lot are doing the heavy lifting here, not a tidy per-square-foot number.
For a buyer, that argues for underwriting each listing on its own merits rather than assuming a neighborhood benchmark. For a seller, it means pricing off the actual condition of your home and being ready to justify it, because there isn't a deep run of comparable closings to lean on. Expect to work the details.
Figures in this note are as of July 12, 2026. The live market numbers elsewhere on this page update nightly and are newer.
Nearby homes for sale
No active listings inside Deer Run right now. These are the 6 closest homes on the market, by straight-line distance from the community's center; some may sit just outside its boundary.
Listing data from the MLS feeds named on each listing page; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Refreshed nightly.
The 60-Second Overview
Deer Run is an Orange Park community in Clay County, west of the river and outside Duval's core. Read it as a settled residential pocket where individual home condition, not a headline number, drives value.
realMLS (Northeast Florida) sales records identify 10 homes in Deer Run that have changed hands since 2006, built between 1981 and 1998 (median 1986), with a median living area of about 1,540 sq ft and a typical 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout; 100% are single-family homes. Source: realMLS (Northeast Florida) closed-sale history compiled by Momentum Research; counts reflect homes with a recorded MLS sale, not every home in the community.
Pre-construction details are compiled from public records, builder announcements and builder listings, and are subject to change without notice; figures are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Momentum Research figures are our own analysis. This page describes homes, pricing and community attributes, not residents.
Who Deer Run is best for.
Best for
- Buyers comfortable underwriting a home on its own condition and lot rather than a neighborhood average
- Those seeking an Orange Park base in Clay County, outside the Duval core
- Owners planning to price to their home's actual condition and defend it with detail
Probably not for
- Buyers who need a large set of recent comparable sales before committing
- Anyone expecting a fixed per-square-foot rate to price every home in the community
- Sellers wanting to lean on a headline number instead of their home's specific condition
The market around Deer Run
Deer Run is too small for its own price trend, so here is the market around it.
In ZIP 32003, 127 homes are on the market and 28% are under contract — a steady corner of Orange Park.
Across Clay County, 1,276 homes are active and 398 pending (24% under contract).
In ZIP 32003 (Orange Park), 439 homes closed in the last 12 months at a median of $458K ($215/sq ft), down 0.4% year over year, with a median 32 days on market. Right now 87 active and 24 pending listings put supply at about 2.4 months — a healthy market. See the live ZIP 32003 housing market and the Clay County market.
ZIP and county figures describe the wider market, not Deer Run specifically. Momentum Research analysis of MLS records.
The Deer Run buying strategy.
If we were buying in Deer Run today, this is the order of operations we would run for our clients.
Underwrite the condition first. Price the roof, HVAC, and systems honestly before judging any list price; condition swings value here more than square footage alone.
Match the home to real comps. Recent sales of similar condition and lot, not the asking price, tell you what a home is worth.
Move deliberately, not desperately. Neither side has a decisive edge, so a well-prepared, fairly-priced offer wins without overpaying.
Line up financing and inspection early. A pre-approval and an inspection plan let you act fast and negotiate from evidence.
Keep an agent in your corner. The listing agent works for the seller; we represent you and prepare a hand-built valuation before any offer in Deer Run.
Reading a thin comp set
With only a short closings window to work from, the honest move is to treat Deer Run as a home-by-home market. A well-updated house and a dated one can sit far apart on price, and there isn't enough recent volume to average that spread away. The single median figure is a starting reference, not a rule.
That puts a premium on doing the work: pulling the actual condition of each home, checking what's been renovated versus deferred, and weighing the lot. Buyers who insist on a clean, verifiable comparison and sellers who price to their home's real condition will both do better than anyone reaching for a neighborhood shortcut.
The location and the amenities are priced into every listing in Deer Run. The deal is won or lost on condition, the comps, and the renovation math.
Why work with Momentum here
When the recent-sales set is thin, the analysis has to be hands-on. We underwrite each Deer Run home on its own condition and location rather than a borrowed average, and we'll tell you plainly when a listing's asking price isn't supported by what has actually closed nearby.
Deer Run in 15 seconds.
Tools for a Deer Run buy.
Free calculators to pressure-test the real cost before you tour.
Selling here is won on condition and pricing to real comps, not an automated estimate. The right number comes from closed Deer Run sales matched to your home.
Price it to the comps and condition, not an automated estimate.
If you are thinking about selling in Deer Run, the right list price comes from recent comparable sales matched to your home's condition and location, not an automated estimate.
What is your Deer Run home worth?
Get a no-obligation home value based on real comparable sales in Deer Run, not an automated guess. Tell us about your home and we will personally prepare your numbers and a pricing strategy. No obligation, no spam.
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Housing distress & ownership in Deer Run, Orange Park
Who owns here, how much is not owner-occupied, and how much for-sale inventory is under distress.
Source: Momentum Realty Research. Ownership & parcels from the FL DOR 2025 tax roll; distress from MLS active-listing status/remarks; price from MLS closed sales. Source: Data provided by realMLS. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
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Orange Park guides & data
- Market data
- Cost of living
- Best neighborhoods
- Flood zones
- Property taxes (Clay County)
- Homestead exemption (Clay County)
- Home insurance cost
- New construction
Florida buyer guides
- Florida home insurance rates by county
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- Florida property tax calculator
- What flood zone X means
- The 4-point inspection, explained
- Florida flood insurance calculator
- Florida housing market map
- Interactive housing market map (county, ZIP and community)
- Save Our Homes tax estimator
- How to stop a foreclosure in Florida
- Florida documentary stamp tax, explained
- Cheapest places to live in Florida
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Recent Developments in Deer Run
Development, infrastructure, retail, and school activity affecting Deer Run, tracked by our team and summarized from public reporting and official sources, with links to the original coverage. Last updated November 2026.
- October 2026Schools
Clay school district says one-mill referendum renews, not raises, property tax
The Clay County school district says the referendum on the upcoming ballot renews the one-mill levy voters first approved in 2020 at the same rate. The money funds school law enforcement contracts and compensation to retain and attract teachers and support staff. A citizens' advisory committee reviews spending, and the district says non-renewal would leave a funding shortfall.
What it may mean for the marketThe outcome sets school operating funding and staffing support for Clay County without changing the current millage rate. The site is about 7 miles south of Deer Run.
Source: Clay Today - October 2026Retail & Dining
Grumpy's opens largest location yet on Fleming Island
Grumpy's opened at 1803 East-West Parkway in the former Dick's Wings and Grill space, with a Oct. 12 grand opening after benefit soft-opening dinners on Oct. 9 and 10. At 5,352 square feet it is the chain's largest of six Northeast Florida locations, seating up to 190. The owners plan a third restaurant.
What it may mean for the marketA large breakfast-and-lunch restaurant filling a vacant East-West Parkway space adds a dining option on Fleming Island. The site is less than a mile northeast of Deer Run.
Source: Clay Today - September 2026Infrastructure
County Road 220 widening and Little Black Creek bridge replacement open to traffic in Clay County
The project finished ahead of schedule, with a new four-lane bridge over Little Black Creek replacing a 1947 structure. Phase 1 began in December 2024 with intersection improvements at Rideout Ferry Road, and Phase 2 began in January 2025. Officials say it should ease traffic along the corridor.
What it may mean for the marketA four-lane CR 220 corridor improves commute capacity for Fleming Island and Middleburg area drivers. The site is about 3 miles west of Deer Run.
Source: News4JAX - June 2026Builder Activity
Hyland Trail to bring over 3,000 homes to Lake Asbury in Clay County
News4Jax reported that Hyland Trail, along with the related Edenbrooke and The Glens communities, will bring more than 3,000 new homes to the Lake Asbury area of Clay County. Homes are being built by Dream Finders, Pulte and Lennar, with a Lodge amenity center featuring a beach-entry pool, splash zone, exercise facility and pickleball courts. Edenbrooke includes an age-restricted, low-maintenance home section.
What it may mean for the marketAdds a large volume of new single-family housing supply and a private amenity center to the Lake Asbury area, expanding for-sale inventory across a range of home sizes and price points. The project is about 6 miles southwest of Deer Run, elsewhere in Clay County.
Source: News4Jax - June 2026Infrastructure
First Coast Expressway advances as an economic-development corridor across Clay and St. Johns
The First Coast Expressway (State Road 23), a tolled beltway looping around the west and south of the Jacksonville metro, continued to open land for development along its corridor, with the final St. Johns County phase from Interstate 95 to east of County Road 2209 in progress. FDOT held a St. Johns County open house on the final phase in January 2026.
What it may mean for the marketNew limited-access highway capacity shortens commutes and opens adjacent land, changes that have historically shaped where new communities and demand concentrate. The site is about 4 miles south of Deer Run.
Source: Jax Daily Record
Summaries reflect public reporting and official sources linked above as of the dates shown. Project details, timelines, and approvals can change. Commentary on potential market effects is general observation, not investment advice or a prediction for any specific property. For the freshest items across the whole region, see This Week in Northeast Florida.
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Ask an agent about Deer Run
Have a question about the homes, fees, rules or commute here? A Momentum agent who works Deer Run will answer, and the answer is published on this page for the next buyer.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many homes are in Deer Run?
What share of Deer Run is owner-occupied?
When were the homes in Deer Run built?
Who is the best real estate agent for Deer Run?
How do I find a top Orange Park real estate agent who knows Deer Run?
Can Momentum Realty connect me with an agent for Deer Run?
Where is Deer Run, and what county is it in?
How far is Deer Run from downtown Jacksonville and the beach?
Should you buy in Deer Run?
An honest fit check. We will tell you when it is not your community.
Data sources & freshness
| Live listings | realMLS, refreshed twice daily (last: November 11, 2026) |
| Housing stock & ownership | Florida DOR assessment roll (street-list match (1 streets, ZIP 32003)) |
| Under-contract shares | realMLS records, as of 2026-11-11 |
| Historical depth | Closed-sale records back to 2011 (15 transactions analyzed) |
Verify the primary sources yourself: Florida DOR · U.S. Census · FEMA flood maps · Citizens Property Insurance.
Momentum Research figures are our own analysis of realMLS records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Methodology: how Momentum market scores are computed. Market metrics describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
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The numbers on this page move markets in the aggregate. The number that matters to you is what a buyer pays for your address. Momentum listings in Northeast Florida sold at 99.1% of final list price vs. 98.6% for the market, in a median 31 days vs. 41 (realMLS, 12 months to Nov 2026). A Momentum agent can price yours against live local comps.
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